مولانا احمد سعید
افسوس ہے کہ مولانا احمد سعید صاحب صدر جمعیۃ علمائے ہند نے ۴؍ دسمبر کو انتقال فرمایا، مولانا مرحوم ان علمائے دین میں تھے جن کی پوری زندگی ملک و ملت کی خدمت میں گزری۔ وہ جنگ آزادی کے نامور مجاہد تھے اور اس راہ میں بارہا قیدوبند کی مصیبتیں جھیلیں، مولانا کفایت اﷲ صاحب اور مولانا حسین احمد صاحب مرحوم کے بعد اس طبقہ کے علماء میں ایک مولانا احمد سعید ہی کی ذات رہ گئی تھی۔ وہ بھی ہم سے جدا ہوگئے۔
افسوس کز قبیلۂ مجنون کسے نماند
دینی، ملی اور سیاسی خدمات کے ساتھ مولانا بڑے خوش بیان خطیب تھے، دلی کی ٹکسالی زبان بولتے تھے، باتیں کرتے تو منہ سے پھول جھڑتے تھے، شرافت اور وضعداری میں بھی دلی کی پرانی تہذیب کا نمونہ تھے، طبعاً بڑے زندہ دل اور خوش مذاق تھے جس محفل میں بیٹھتے تھے اپنی باتوں سے پوری محفل کو مائل کرلیتے تھے۔ عرصہ ہوا ایک سیاسی مقدمہ کے سلسلہ میں ان کو کچھ دنوں اعظم گڑھ میں رہنا پڑا تھا۔ دارالمصنفین میں قیام تھا۔ اعظم گڑھ ہی کی عدالت سے ان کو سزا ہوئی اور یہیں کے جیل میں قید ہوئے، اس لیے مولانا کو قریب سے دیکھنے کا موقع ملا، اسی زمانہ سے ان کے حسن اخلاق اور پرلطف صحبت کا جو نقش قائم ہوا تھا وہ اب تک باقی ہے۔ مولانا اپنے دور کی آخری یادگار تھے۔ اس لیے ان کی وفات سے ایک دور کا خاتمہ ہوگیا، اﷲ تعالیٰ اس خادم دین و ملت کو اپنی بے پایاں رحمت و مغفرت سے سرفراز فرمائے۔
(شاہ معین الدین ندوی، دسمبر ۱۹۵۹ء)
The wasaṭiyyah (Islamic moderation) concept is deep-rooted in Islam. It is a straight path, a good between two evils; it maintains balance between the two extremes of excess and deficiency, and between fanaticism and negligence. Moderation was widely practiced with the advent of Islam. It was a noteworthy aspect of people’s day to day life and conducts. The term wasaṭiyyah (moderation) emerged in the early eighties. It was initially introduced by Shiekh Yūsuf Al-Qaraḍāwī. He used it in his books and discourses, and gradually it become very prevalent. Few factors resulted in widespread use of the term, the main factor is the western systematic campaign against Islam and Muslims to distort their image and label them with terrorism and extremism. Therefore, they frequently used the term wasaṭiyyah to prove themselves against these accusations. Another factor is the current situation in most Muslim countries and their struggle with social and political injustice which turns Muslim youth to extremism and terrorism that is why Muslim scholars and reformers, through their moderate discourse, stood up and condemned fanaticism and radical ideology. All that made the term wasaṭiyyah widely used by different people from all walks of life, and each has its aims and intentions behind embracing the moderate discourse and raising the flag of wasaṭiyyah (moderation).
Beyond the traditional verdict of efficiency/inefficiency of market, the current thesis aims to provide additional insights to portray the clear picture of behavior of stock market. Although the previous studies have broadly examined the classical EMH, but there exists no consensus among academicians and researchers whether markets are efficient or not. Earlier studies favor EMH and claim that it holds. However, the recent studies cast a serious doubt by showing a strong evidence against the validity of the EMH. In addition, numerous research studies used a predetermined sample-period to investigate the EMH while ignored the fact that the levels of market efficiency may change/evolve over time. Thus, testing efficiency in previous studies is confined to investigate whether the returns generating process of an asset is stochastic (market efficiency) or deterministic (market inefficiency). In this regard Lo (2004) tries to reconcile both the varying degree of market efficiency and EMH through Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). This theory facilitates the efficiency of capital markets to evolve over time and allows market inefficiencies to co-exist along with market efficiency (EMH). The thesis aims to examine the behavior of stock returns and calendar effects through AMH to identify whether AMH delivers a better depiction of behavior stock return and calendar anomalies than traditional EMH. For the purpose 107 listed companies from Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) are selected over the period from 1996 to 2015 to contribute to limited literature available on emerging markets. Similar to the studies of (Urquhart, 2013; Urquhart & Hudson, 2013), five different types of behavior are studied. The data set is divided into 4 equal 5-yearly-subsamples to detect the evolution of market efficiency (through linear & non-linear tests) and calendar effects (through GARCH model & Kruskal-Wallis test). The simultaneous utilization of linear and non-linear methods would probably improve the prediction of market participants. The results of linear & nonlinear tests reveal that firms exhibit significant predictability of returns during certain sub-samples while insignificant in others indicating that returns go under periods of market efficiency and inefficiency thus, consistent with AMH. Similarly, the results of GARCH (1,1) and Kruskal-Wallis test show that behavior of calendar effects fluctuates and goes under periods of predictability and no predictability . Overall, results of study suggest that AMH well elucidates the behavior of stock return and calendar effects than conventional EMH. The findings of the study may helpful to investors to assess the time varying volatility to manage their portfolios, investment decisions and trading strategies at (PSX).