Modern Native Orientalism: Islamophobia or Lack of Scholarly Credentials?

Islam has been discussed and criticized in the West by the name of Orientalism and this practice is in vogue in the modern enlightened age. While Orientalism remains to be an important chapter in the history of Islam and the West, new modes of approaching Islam, ranging from dialogue and critical understanding to confrontation and rejection, continue to make their appearances in various forms. Recently the West has started sponsoring some Muslims and ex-Muslims to criticize Islam besides the Orientalists. These so-called Muslims have been frequently appearing in the arenas of criticism for last few years. We may call these Muslims or ex-Muslims as ‘native Orientalists.’

Asset Prices and Business Cycle Fluctuations: the Role of Money Revisited

Desirability of interest rate as monetary policy operating target due to apparent failure of the quantity theory of money in the backdrop of certain events has dominated macroeconomic research over the past three decades. However, recurrent financial crises, the failure of interest rate reductions to revive the economies from deflation, and moving to quantitative easing policies have cast doubt on the efficacy of this operating target. Therefore, there is a need to find a missing link whose absence from the models of money demand and velocity was responsible for the failure of money as an operating target of monetary policy. We hypothesize that such missing link is between money (or velocity) and asset prices and the later, once incorporated in the models of money demand and velocity, can provide answers to velocity decline phenomena, unstable money demand function, weak relationship between money and inflation and economic activity. We also hypothesize that asset prices can significantly improve the predictive power of money for inflation and real GDP.Within this context, this thesis sets five objectives in the area of monetary policy of Pakistan. The first objective of the thesis is to construct an asset price index for Pakistan using three types of assets prices such as stock prices, house prices and exchange rate for the time period 1980 to 2017. This is done by constructing house price index from the available data on house price index on zameen.com from 2011 to 2017 and the data on house rent index from 1980 to 2017 with two methods namely regression analysis after adjusting for structural breaks and vector autoregression (VAR) model. The second objective of the thesis is to analyze the role of asset prices in explaining velocity decline phenomenon and instability of money demand function using bivariate and multivariate regression analyses. The third objective of the thesis is to analyze the moderating role of assets prices for the effect of money/credit on real economic activity and goods prices in Pakistan. Using Granger causality and variance decomposition methods, we also compare interest rate and money stock in terms of their forecastability of goods prices and real GDP in order to know if money stock, or interest rate, is the better operating target of monetary policy when asset prices are included in the model. The moderating role of asset prices for inflation and economic activity is investigated using two methods, namely two step method and regression with interaction term (Choi, 2019; Katircioglu & Taspinar, 2017; Rajan & Zingales, 1998; Barron & Kenny, 1986); Barron and Kenny (1986). The fourth objective of the thesis is to estimate the role of credit in determining assets prices in Pakistan and to know if price of credit or quantity of credit is important in determining the real economic activity and price level in the economy. The methodology used to determine this relationship includes bivariate regression analysis along with vector error correction model. The fifth objective is to estimate the interrelationship among asset prices, goods prices, credit, interest rate, and economic activity. This objective deals with two important linkages among these variables: effect of asset prices on economic activity and goods prices; and the distributional consequences of changes in interest rate for asset market and goods market. Results indicate that VAR generates unbiased and efficient forecasts of house prices. The main result of the thesis is that asset prices significantly explain fluctuations in velocity in Pakistan and this is true for both velocity decline as well as rise. The effect of asset prices on money demand in Pakistan is also found significant (and positive). In case of individual asset prices, house prices and share prices have a positive relationship with the demand for money, while the coefficient of exchange rate is negative. Moreover, in the model without asset prices, the predictive power of money is weak but it significantly increases when asset prices are included in the model while interest rate remains poor predictor of economic activity in Pakistan no matter asset prices are included or not. The moderating role of asset prices for the effect of money on economic activity and goods prices indicate that higher is the value of asset prices, higher would be the effect of private sector credit/money on real economic activity, and lower would be the effect on GDP deflator. Moreover, credit positively affects the overall asset price index as well as the individual asset prices and the magnitude of effect is more on share prices than on housing prices and exchange rate. We also find that real GDP negatively responds to asset prices because resources are diverted towards the assets market in order to invest in assets. Moreover, private sector credit positively responds to asset prices, while economic activity, goods prices and private sector credit negatively respond to interest rate which is in conformity with the standard theory. However, response of asset prices to interest rate remains positive and increased cost of borrowing diverts private sector credit towards assets.