کتب سماویہ اور انسانی فکر کا ارتقاء ایک علمی و تحقیقی جائزہ

Allah has created human being and gave him the power of intellectual understandings. To utilize and make positive use of this Allah sent Holy books for guidance. While, keeping the sequence of these books and the historical evolution of human mind, one can easily recognize the symmetrical progress in both. Human starts living in caves and through his intelligence created homes to live, tools to gain meal, and so on, till todays growth. As far as, evolution of Holy books is considered, Scriptures were revealed in different portions as human at that stage couldn’t write or store on pages or another source. Old Testament was revealed earlier. It is combination of Torah, Psalms and other books. In the context of Islam, Torah was the first book revealed on Hazrat Mosa, in which commandments were given as per the level of Bani Israel. Afterwards, Psalms, containing poetic way inspires Bani Israel after the Torah and the Bible Last Holy book in the generation of Israel, comprises of observational and experiential way, as required in that era. Holy Quran, compiled and final version of all the past version, is summary and elemental book. In which, descriptive, observational, experiential, poetic, logical, argumentative and comprehensive technique are present. These all shows, ultimate intellectual growth of human is being address in Holy Quran. As Human is now intellectually at its peak so the teaching and techniques used are at highest level of literature, showing the step by step evolution and association of Holy books with Human being.

Propagation of Different Stochastic Frameworks for Modeling, Forecasting and Spatial Analysis of Drought Hazard

This thesis develops various stochastic strategies and provides amalgamations of various data-driven techniques in uni variate, multivariate and spatio-temporal settings. Some important applications from the field of hydrology are provided. These applications are purely related the effective use of uni-variate and multivariate time series data particularly for drought management and hydrological process control. Due to global warming, the risk of drought has been increased in several regions of the world. Therefore, continuous monitoring, prediction, and spatial characterization of drought from precise and accurate procedures play very important role for effective drought mitigation policies. In this perspective, this thesis presents seven major proposals which cover continuous monitoring, forecasting and spatial characterization of drought hazards. In uni variate setting, this thesis proposed one drought index: the Probabilistic Weighted Joint Aggregative Drought Index (PWJADI), and a new weighting scheme for weighted Markov chain model. Both of these methods are carried out with their applications on various meteorological stations of Pakistan. Outcomes associated with this research show that the proposed methods can effectively handle uni-variate time series data for drought monitoring and short-term prediction. In multivariate setting, we proposed three frameworks under spatial and regional settings. First framework is purely application based where we considered the problem of multi-scaling characteristics and the choice of best time scale for regional monitoring of drought. In this work, we investigated appropriate time scale of Standardized Precipitation Temperature Index (SPTI) Ali et al. (2017a) drought index using geo-reference points of meteorological stations. In the secii ond work, we developed a novel regionalized drought monitoring framework which requires minimal drought monitoring stations by clustering meteorological stations. Here, we introduced transition probability matrix based k-mean procedure for the identification of homogenous drought characterization regions. Our results lead towards minimal use of resources. The third framework presents a novel way to accumulate decisions of important time scales, where the transition probabilities of drought classes were used as a weight for each time scale. Here, we supported our rationale by including the investigations which are our key results in the two preceding frameworks. Our results suggest that, the proposed framework can be effectively used for efficient and accurate drought monitoring. In further study, we introduce a novel ensemble procedure for the comparison of drought indices. Here, we proposed a new framework: the Drought Intensity Pattern Determinate (DIPD) by developing and configuring a new index of drought pattern recognition-the Drought Concentration Index (DCI). Application of the proposed procedure is provided by incorporating three drought indices and fifty two meteorological stations of Pakistan. Our results indicate that, the proposed procedure is flexible to define pattern of drought severity and able to compare drought indices under regional setting. In addition, we introduced a new generalized non-parametric framework for handling uncertainty associated with extreme events. Numerical and graphical findings of this study show that the use of only one distribution has a greater risk of inaccurate reporting of extreme events. Moreover, non-optimization of several probability distributions may create a chaotic situation for general drought practitioners. However, to reduce the error for accurate reporting of extreme events, probabiliii ity plotting position formulas are good candidates. Finally, the study suggests improvements in the time series data of rainfall before its deployments in the statistical model. In this regards, we propagate a new drought index named: the Precision Weighted Standardized Precipitation Index (PWSDI). Outcomes associated with this part of the research show that improve time series data are good candidates for modeling and monitoring hydrological drought with more precision under regional settings.