کنیڈی
گذشتہ مہینے مسٹر کنیڈی کاقتل دنیا کاسب سے زیادہ الم انگیز واقعہ بھی ہے اور خصوصاً اس ملک کے حکمرانوں کے لیے سبق آموز و عبرت انگیز بھی! الم انگیز اس لیے کہ مسٹر کنیڈی اپنے دل ودماغ کے غیر معمولی اوصاف وکمالات کے باعث ایک نہایت وقیع اور بلند پایہ شخصیت کے مالک تھے۔اُن کے یہی وہ کمالات تھے جنھوں نے دوبرس کے اندر ہی کم عمر وجوان ہونے کے باوصف ان کو بین الاقوامی دنیا کاہر دلعزیز ہیرو اور لیڈر بنادیا تھا اور سبق آموز وعبرت انگیز! وہ اس لیے کہ ایک طرف دنیا کی سب سے زیادہ طاقت ورمتمول اور ترقی یافتہ حکومت کاجوان وکم سال سربراہ ہے جس کے لیے عیش وتنعم کی زندگی بسرکرنے میں نہ کوئی رکاوٹ ہے اور نہ اُس کے اسباب کی کمی ۔مگراس کے باوجود اپنے ملک کی مظلوم ومقہور اقلیتوں کی دادرسی کااُس نے جو عزم اوراعلان کیاہے اُس میں وہ اس درجہ سچا، پختہ اوراستوار ہے کہ اُس کی اپنی قوم سخت منحرف ہوکر اُس کی جان کی دشمن ہوگئی ہے لیکن اسے اس کی ذرا پروا نہیں، وہ جوکہتا ہے اُسے کرگزرتا ہے۔یہاں تک کہ اسی راہِ حق وصداقت میں وہ جان بھی دے بیٹھتا ہے اور دوسری طرف اس ملک کے حکمراں ہیں کہ اقلیتوں کے دستور ی حقوق کی حفاظت و نگرانی کے بلند بانگ دعوے کرتے ہیں مگر اکثریت جس کی حمایت اُن کے اقتدار کاسہارا ہے اُس کی ناراضگی کے ڈرسے بہت سے زبانی اور کاغذی وعدے خوابِ پریشاں سے زیادہ کوئی حقیقت نہیں رکھتے۔ وہاں فرض شناسی ہے اور یہاں خودغرضی۔ وہاں ایمان داری، حق گستری اوراس کے لیے جاں سپاری ہے اور یہاں بے ایمانی کوتاہ نظری اور بزدلی ۔ فاعتبرویااولی الابصار۔
[دسمبر ۱۹۶۳ء]
The research reveals significant insights cited by Ibn Al ‘Irāqī in his book "Toḥfah Al Taḥṣīl" on the illusions of Al-‘Alā'ī in his book "Jāmi Al Taḥṣīl". It highlights the scientific value of those illusions that Ibn Al-‘Irāqī pointed out. Several of them are related to narrators of hadith and their issues of hearing from their sheikhs. Many of those illusions are related to the chain narrators (isnad), the main text of the report (matn), or their position in the books of sunnah. There are no previous studies on this subject. I put the sequential insights I revel under headlines through which one can realize the illusions that Al-Ala'i fell in. I conclude with the perceptions that both Ibn Al-‘Iraqī and Al-‘Alā’ī have shared. I don’t mention my opinion after each insight for Ibn Al-‘Iraqī; however, my silence is an approval to what he said. When I went against him or it was important to mention any comment or information, I openly said my opinion and explained the reasons for my opposition. Some of the research findings are: Al-Ala'i ignores mentioning the narrator's gap (irsal), although Al-Mizzī mentions it in his book "Tahdhīb", or the scholars mention it before both of them. He describes the narrator having a gap (irsāl) and attributes it to Al-Mizzī. He added notes like "he didn't encounter him" and formulated expressions that weren’t mentioned by neither Al Dhahabī nor Al-Mizzī. He references a Ḥadīth to a book that it is not included in.
Beyond the traditional verdict of efficiency/inefficiency of market, the current thesis aims to provide additional insights to portray the clear picture of behavior of stock market. Although the previous studies have broadly examined the classical EMH, but there exists no consensus among academicians and researchers whether markets are efficient or not. Earlier studies favor EMH and claim that it holds. However, the recent studies cast a serious doubt by showing a strong evidence against the validity of the EMH. In addition, numerous research studies used a predetermined sample-period to investigate the EMH while ignored the fact that the levels of market efficiency may change/evolve over time. Thus, testing efficiency in previous studies is confined to investigate whether the returns generating process of an asset is stochastic (market efficiency) or deterministic (market inefficiency). In this regard Lo (2004) tries to reconcile both the varying degree of market efficiency and EMH through Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). This theory facilitates the efficiency of capital markets to evolve over time and allows market inefficiencies to co-exist along with market efficiency (EMH). The thesis aims to examine the behavior of stock returns and calendar effects through AMH to identify whether AMH delivers a better depiction of behavior stock return and calendar anomalies than traditional EMH. For the purpose 107 listed companies from Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) are selected over the period from 1996 to 2015 to contribute to limited literature available on emerging markets. Similar to the studies of (Urquhart, 2013; Urquhart & Hudson, 2013), five different types of behavior are studied. The data set is divided into 4 equal 5-yearly-subsamples to detect the evolution of market efficiency (through linear & non-linear tests) and calendar effects (through GARCH model & Kruskal-Wallis test). The simultaneous utilization of linear and non-linear methods would probably improve the prediction of market participants. The results of linear & nonlinear tests reveal that firms exhibit significant predictability of returns during certain sub-samples while insignificant in others indicating that returns go under periods of market efficiency and inefficiency thus, consistent with AMH. Similarly, the results of GARCH (1,1) and Kruskal-Wallis test show that behavior of calendar effects fluctuates and goes under periods of predictability and no predictability . Overall, results of study suggest that AMH well elucidates the behavior of stock return and calendar effects than conventional EMH. The findings of the study may helpful to investors to assess the time varying volatility to manage their portfolios, investment decisions and trading strategies at (PSX).