نکلنا خلد سے آدم کا۔۔۔
آس کی خوشبو یاس کی بد بو پرہمیشہ غالب آتی ہے
یوں محسوس ہو رہا تھا
جیسے دل میں اِ ک آگ سی لگی ہو
اور سب کچھ اس بھٹی میں جھونک رہا ہوں
اس بھٹی کو صرف آنسو ہی ٹھنڈا کر سکتے تھے
لیکن !وہ بھی لب ِ مژگاں تک آتے آتے مر گئے
کتنی مشکل سے محبت کے تارو پود سے سنہری خواب بنے تھے
مگرایک تار کے نکل جانے سے
سب خواب نیند کی وادیوں میں کہیں کھو گئے ہیں
حیف!میرے دھندلے خواب
جو میں کسی کی آنکھوں سے دیکھ رہا تھا
یوں لگتا ہے جیسے
میرا بھی شمار اُن سوختہ سروںمیں ہوتا ہے
جو بحرِ محبت میں بنا کشتی اور پتوار کے اتر گئے تھے
مجھے اپنی عادتوں پردکھ ہے
جو پھر سے خراب ہو جائیں گی
جنہیں اک عرصہ بدلنے میں لگا تھا
یہ آدم اور آدم زاد کے نصیب میں لکھا جا چکا ہے
کہ اس کا کبھی ایک ٹھکانہ ہو ہی نہیں سکتا
کبھی یہ بہشت سے نکالا جاتا ہے
کبھی اپنے گھر سے دربدر ہوتا ہے تو کبھی شہر سے
کبھی کسی کی زندگی سے توکبھی کسی کے دل سے
یزداں نے بھی انسان کے ساتھ کیاخوب کھیل کھیلا ہے
اسے فاصلوں میںالجھائے رکھتا ہے
This study aims to calculate the allowance for losses by applying Gaussian Process regression to estimate future claims. Modeling is done on motor vehicle insurance data. The data used in this study are historical data on PT XYZ's motor vehicle insurance business line during 2017 and 2019 (January 2017 to December 2019). Data analysis will be carried out on the 2017 - 2019 data to obtain an estimate of the claim reserves in the following year, namely 2018 - 2020. This study uses the Chain Ladder method which is the most popular loss reserving method in theory and practice. The estimation results show that the Gaussian Process Regression method is very flexible and can be applied without much adjustment. These results were also compared with the Chain Ladder method. Estimated claim reserves for PT XYZ's motor vehicle business line using the chain-ladder method, the company must provide funds for 2017 of 8,997,979,222 IDR in 2018 16,194,503,605 IDR in 2019 amounting to Rp. 1,719,764,520 for backup. Meanwhile, by using the Bayessian Gaussian Process method, the company must provide funds for 2017 of 9,060,965,077 IDR in 2018 amounting to 16,307,865,130 IDR, and in 2019 1,731,802,871 IDR for backup. The more conservative Bayessian Gaussian Process method. Motor vehicle insurance data has a short development time (claims occur) so that it is included in the short-tail type of business.
The Thesis Seeks to understand the nature of Politics of Ethnicity and its relationship with national integration. In third world’s plural societies, ethnic politics has remained a great challenge. Pakistan is also a plural state having variety of ethnic groups. The ethnic heterogeneity has remained a constant challenge to the state authorities and the issue of nation building and creation of national integration is still a major task. It is seen in the research that the state of Pakistan always used centralizing and authoritarian policies to create national harmony. The state wanted to transform ethnic identity into Pakistani identity. The authoritative tactics of the state manifested ethnicity into ethnic politics. The dismemberment of East Pakistan in 1971, was the ultimate result. In the post 1971 period same policy was applied. Resultantly, ethnic groups from the four federating units, developed ethnic consciousness. In this research, three ethnic groups Baloch, Mohajir and Saraiki are selected to find out the main factors which politicized their ethnic association. The Researcher argued in this research that when state denies the demands of sharing political power or adequate representation in political and administrative institutions, conflictual situation develops between state and ethnic groups. It is also highlighted in detail that the political, economic and social factors determine the salience of politics of ethnicity. Apart from highlighting the factors responsible for politics of ethnicity and conflictual environment, the researcher also pointed out four variables to measure the threat for the national integration of Pakistan. These variables are the role of leadership of a particular ethnic group, the role of the middle class, their mobility for the particular cause, role of state and its policies in diffusing or escalating conflict and the role of external support for particular ethnic cause. The research also incorporated an extensive survey from the three ethnic groups of three provinces Balochistan, Sindh and Punjab. The research leads to a conclusion that some structural and perceptual perspective should be evolved to create national integration. For this purpose the role of state is very important. Instead of following the old repressive policies, political engagement, political reforms and social giving can bring about change in the plural societies like Pakistan.