Implementation of Gaussian Process Regression in Estimating Motor Vehicle Insurance Claims Reserves

This study aims to calculate the allowance for losses by applying Gaussian Process regression to estimate future claims. Modeling is done on motor vehicle insurance data. The data used in this study are historical data on PT XYZ's motor vehicle insurance business line during 2017 and 2019 (January 2017 to December 2019). Data analysis will be carried out on the 2017 - 2019 data to obtain an estimate of the claim reserves in the following year, namely 2018 - 2020. This study uses the Chain Ladder method which is the most popular loss reserving method in theory and practice. The estimation results show that the Gaussian Process Regression method is very flexible and can be applied without much adjustment. These results were also compared with the Chain Ladder method. Estimated claim reserves for PT XYZ's motor vehicle business line using the chain-ladder method, the company must provide funds for 2017 of 8,997,979,222 IDR in 2018 16,194,503,605 IDR in 2019 amounting to Rp. 1,719,764,520 for backup. Meanwhile, by using the Bayessian Gaussian Process method, the company must provide funds for 2017 of 9,060,965,077 IDR in 2018 amounting to 16,307,865,130 IDR, and in 2019 1,731,802,871 IDR for backup. The more conservative Bayessian Gaussian Process method. Motor vehicle insurance data has a short development time (claims occur) so that it is included in the short-tail type of business.

Feminism in Prose Novels and Short Stories of Nawaal Al Shadavi and Fahmida Riaz A Comparative Study

This study is a comparison between two female pioneer authors of the two important Islamic languages Arabic and Urdu. This study deals with the similarity between literatures of known phenomena, and we find this similarity very clearly in the literary works of known Arabic female writer Nawal El Saadawi and famous Urdu literary personality Fahmida Riaz, about whom this study speaks. The basis of this study is resemblance which is based on the association in the femininity and socio political similarities of woman due to same circumstances which the both countries Egypt and the Indian subcontinent passed through, like British occupation for a long period of time and similar psychological problems, whereas the characteristics of each literary era appear in the works of writers of that era regardless of their geographical location and their culture. This study will be very useful in the field of comparative studies in various parts of the world, and one day when it will come into being, it will provide solid bases to one another. I divided this study into four chapters: the first chapter named as "the feminism its concept and development in the Arabic Literature" and the second chapter is about "The feminism in works of Nawal El Saadawi," whereas the third chapter is about "the feminism in the works of Fahmida Riaz" and the fourth chapter deals with “comparative study of the works of Nawal El Saadawi and Fahmida Riaz." In the points of resemblance the researcher has found many similarities between these two writers for stance their self dependency and the way they suffered hardships of appearing before the courts because of their works. This study points out some of the differences between the two authors. In brief, the human natures are similar and their reaction is similar within their framework, whereas they wished for humanity a prosperous future and this wish is still latent in the human subconscious since ancient times. And since the man left heavenly paradise, his efforts are to convert this dream into reality by making earthly life paradise. The literary efforts of these two prominent authors target to achieve the same dream and that is to improve the human life to that extent.