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Investigating the Summer Monsoonal Rainfall Variability in Pakistan During the Past Century Using Observed and Simulated Data Sets

Thesis Info

Author

Romesanajeeb

Supervisor

Kalim Ullah

Department

Department of Meteorology

Program

RME

Institute

COMSATS University Islamabad

Institute Type

Public

City

Islamabad

Province

Islamabad

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2014

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Meteorology

Language

English

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2023-01-06 19:20:37

ARI ID

1676720789068

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حرف آغاز

ڈاکٹر نصیر احمد اسد کی تصنیف’’ ارضِ اقبال آ فاقیت کے آ ئینے میں‘‘ کے مقالات جہاں ان کے تحقیقی ذوق کے آ ئینہ دار ہیں وہیں ان کی تنقیدی بصیرت کے بھی گواہ ہیں۔ انہوں نے بنیادی مآخذ سے استفادہ کرتے ہوئے زیر نظر موضوعات کا نہایت تفصیل کے ساتھ جائزہ لیا ہے ۔
     ایک بہت بڑی خوبی جو ان مضامین میں از اوّل تا آ خر موجود ہے وہ یہ کہ اُنہوں نے محض مشاہیر ادب و تحقیق کی آ را اور فیصلوں کو نقل نہیں کیا بلکہ اپنا نقطہ نظر پیش کیا ہے۔ ان کا یہ طالب علمانہ انداز ان کے ان مضامین کو انفرادی رنگ کا حامل بناتا ہے۔ تاہم یہ کم خوبی کی بات نہیں کہ زیر نظر موضوع پر ریسرچ سکالرز کا اپنا نقطہ نظر سامنے آ تا ہے۔ان مضامین میں حواشی ،حوالہ جات اور تعلیقات کا خاص خیال رکھا گیا ہے۔ اس کے علاوہ مواد ، زبان و بیان اور پیش کش کے اعتبار سے یہ مضامین لائق مطالعہ اور قابلِ تحسین ہیں ۔
    تحقیقی وتنقیدی دنیا میں ڈاکٹر نصیر احمد اسد پہلی بار ’’ارضِ اقبال آفاقیت کے آ ئینے میں‘‘ کے ساتھ داخل ہو رہا ہے۔ ان کی یہ تازہ کاری،ذوق و شوق اور سعی و کاوش خوش آئند ہے۔ان کے علمی انہماک اور وفور شوق کے باعث امید کی جا سکتی ہے کہ وہ آ ئندہ میدان ادب و تحقیق میں اپنے کام کے معیار کو مزید بلندیوں سے ہم کنار کریں گے۔
ڈاکٹر یوسف خشک
چئیر مین اکادمی ادبیات اسلام آباد ، پاکستان

فکر اقبال کے تناظر میں تہذیبی تصادم

A thorough critical analysis of human history highlights that the clash of civilizations centered on themes of conflict, war, and struggle. Historical experts use the word encounter to interpret or explain these relations among civilizations. Trade played a vital role in flourishing these ties, however, conflict and encounter have also been a part of almost all the phases or eras of human history. Developing nations have always looked up to the western world as a role model of economic and military progression, but this philosophy has also resulted in the escalation of tensions among these nations. World peace faces daunting challenges and is one of the most talked-about human concerns in the present times. Islam is currently being challenged by the western world in terms of the right interpretation of religious teachings and the true message of the Holy Quran and Sunnah. Islam is still struggling to make its mark in the present world order, particularly after the 9/11 incident which painted Muslims as terrorists and fundamentalists. It is quite evident that the world is divided into factions or groups, where one group is the torchbearer of Islam and religious teachings, while the second group endorses western ideals or secularism. According to Samuel Huntington, it won’t be wrong to say that the next ideological challenge that the world faces after the ultimate demise of the Soviet Union is Islam and the prospective clash between the East and the West in the 21st century will be the most discussed topic. The present-day relationship between the East and the West is based upon rivalry. This conflict is not a new area of research and is centuries old. The only solution to this problem is to promote global peace and harmony and facilitate dialogue among nations. This would help in creating a social system that can center on values, harmony, peace, and love. Also, Iqbal’s philosophy can act as a guiding stone and can help in resolving this crisis. Iqbal’s universal social reconstruction theory highlights how different civilizations can live together and can facilitate constructive dialogue to improve civilizational ties. This article aims to incorporate the teachings of Iqbal, especially the universal social reconstruction theory to propose solutions for inter-civilizational clashes. This article aims to use the teachings of Iqbal as a beacon of light to promote constructive dialogue and peaceful coexistence among the two dominant sides of the world, resultantly leading in much prosperous and peaceful world order. 

Mathematical Modeling of Some Infectious Diseases With Integer and Non-Integer Order Derivatives

Mathematical models play an important role to understand the spread, per sistence and prevention mechanism of infectious diseases. In this thesis, we present some mathematical models and their analysis on the dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) and Hepatitis B virus (HBV). Firstly, we develop these models with classical integer-order derivative and present a detailed qualita tive analysis including, existence and stability of the equilibria, sensitivity of the model parameters and the existence of the bifurcation phenomena. The threshold quantity also called the basic reproduction numberR0 is presented for each model that shows the disease persistence or elimination for their par ticular cases. Further, we develop some suitable optimal control strategies which would be useful for public health department and other health agen cies, in order to reduce and eradicate TB and HBV from the community. The reported TB infected cases in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan, for the period 2002-2017 are used to parameterize the proposed TB model and an excellent agreement is shown with the field data. The models are solved numerically using Runge-Kutta order four (RK4) method and numerous nu merical simulations carried out to illustrate the disease dynamics and some of the theoretical results. Mathematical models with fractional differential equations (FDEs) are more realistic and provide comparatively better fit to the real data instead of integer order models. Moreover, FDEs possess the memory effect which plays an essential role in the spreading of a disease. Therefore, the second main mathematical findings of this thesis is that we extend the proposed models using fractional order derivatives considering three different fractional xvi operators namely; Caputo, Caputo-Fabrizio and Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo operators. The proposed fractional models are analyzed rigorously and solved numerically using fractional Adams-Bashforth scheme. The graphical results reveal that the models with fractional derivatives give useful and biologically more feasible consequences.