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Stress testing banks using the new Keynesian DSGE framework

Thesis Info

Author

Muhammad Shamil Akbar

Program

MS

Institute

Institute of Business Administration

Institute Type

Private

City

Karachi

Province

Sindh

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2019

Page

37

Subject

Economics

Language

English

Other

CallNo: 332.1

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676720932478

Similar


The frequent occurrence of financial crises and specifically the 2007-08 subprime global financial crisis brought a series of major macroprudential reforms in the regulation of financial institutions and markets. Among such reforms is to periodically gauge the resilience of institutions through stress testing and to mitigate system-wide risks. Stress testing is a risk management process in which various historical and hypothetical shocks are applied to test the resilience in worst-case scenarios. Over a period, there have been major advances in global financial markets and increased complexity in financial instruments and risk identification. As a result, stress testing methodologies have also improved from basic sensitivity analysis to sophisticated partial equilibrium models. The study employs the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model calibrated for Pakistan using the quarterly data for 02:2002 - 02: 2018. The DSGE model constructed three shock scenarios of technology, demand preference, and monetary policy and produced stressed forecasts. These forecasts were later used in the VAR model to come up with the future path of credit risk indicator (GNPLR) of the banks. Similarly, the forecasts based on VAR was also computed. It was found that the DSGE based stressed forecast of GNPLR tends to be slightly higher in the initial quarter and as time horizon increases, the deviation between forecasts tends to grow. It is expected that as DSGE models grow in coverage and include financial sector and risk transmission channels, there will be greater acceptability of these sophisticated measures in stress testing the banking sector
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المبحث الأول: ليلة ممطرة

المبحث الأول: ليلة ممطرة

قصيدة (ليلة ممطرة) " لنازک الملائكة " ([1])

الآن یا نجمي تغیب ولم یحن وقت الأفول؟ (التوارِ لو الغیاب)
ألآن واللیلُ الجمیل یریق ضوءک في الحقول؟
والزھر، تحت اللیل، نشوانٌ([2]) بمشرقکِ الجمیل؟ 
والنھرُ، والشطآن([3])، تضحکُ تحت أشجار النخیلُ

ألآن تغربُ؟ یا لمأساۃِ الجمال الذابل
یا نجمي المآسور في کفّ الضباب الشامل
یا فیلسوف اللیل، یا سرّ الوجودِ الذاھل([4])
عَبَثاً أناشیدي إلی أضواءِ نجم آفل

عبثاً سھرتُ اللیل أرنو([5]) والتفجّعُ([6]) غالبي([7])
أتزوّدُ النظر الأخیر إلی ضیاک([8]) الشاحب([9])
وأصوغ ألحان الرثاء على صباك الشاحب
وأحوکُ من دمعي الضیاء لکلّ نجمٍ غارب


رحماک یا نجمي الجمیل متی نھایۃ لیلتي؟
ومتی ستنقشع([10]) الغیومُ وتستریح کآبتي([11])؟ 
قد شاق قلبي أن أحسُّ الصمتُ تحت خمیلتي([12])
وتجوبُ([13]) عیناي الفضاء وفي یدي قیثارتي

ما زلتُ أنتظر السکون ولیس غیرُ صدی المطر
والریحُ في سمع المساء تئنّ ما بین الشجرَ
لا طیرَ یمرحُ في الحقول ولا أریج ولا زَھَر
لا شيء غیر صراخ رعدٍ ھاتفٍ بأسی البشَر

ومن الظلام تصاعدت آھاتُ قُمري([14])الغصون
ذھبت بمسکنہِ([15]) الریّاح وعزّہ المأوی([16]) الحنون
حیرانُ، مرتعشُ الجناح، مجرّح([17]) تحت الدّجون
رحماکَ یا ربّ العواصفِ، حسبُنا المطر الھَتون([18])

أین الفضاۃ الحلو؟ أین الصحو([19])؟ أین سنا([20]) النجوم؟
من جمّع المطر الکئیب، وبثّ في الليل الغیوم؟
یا ریحُ رفقاً...

قیام امن میں مراکز تعلیم کا کردار تعلیمات نبویﷺ کی روشنی میں

One of the most important and fundamental elements of a civilized society is the presence of peace. In the absence of peace nothing can prosper and advance. In this age of science and technology, terrorist activities can become a cause of isolation from the rest of the world. That is why, every country gives extra attention to its peace and security. Many countries allocate huge sums of budget for this purpose. However, it is not only the responsibility of a government to establish peace, but, also of other institutions, especially, the educational institutions to play their role in this regard. In this article, the role of educational institutions for the promotion of peace has been discussed. Every person of society spends some time in these institutions. These institutions can teach and train their students to develop a peaceful conduct and tolerate the different behaviors and views. But there are some problems and difficulties for educational institutions to play their required role for peace. In the perspective of our country, we can say that if we solve these problems, our country can become more peaceful, will make progress by leaps and bounds and can become one of advanced countries of the world.

Chemistry of Stem of Murraya Koenigii

The present phytochemical investigations described the isolation of chemical constituents from the stem of indigenous plant Murraya koenigii(L.) Spreng which is commonly known as curry plant. This thesis is divided into two parts. PART A Phytochemical studies of Murraya koenigii PART B Pharmacological investigation of isolated compounds In Part A, the introduction describes biosynthesis of carbazole alkaloids, their pharmacological importance and list of previously isolated chemical constituents.In the present study, total eleven different compounds have been isolated from the stemof M. koenigii. Among these isolated compounds eightwere identified as new compounds namely, aronine (66), afifine (67), jerinine (68), ferinine (69), atinine (70), zolidine (71), osinine (72) and2-methyl-3-(1-methyl cyclohex-2-en) propanol-ol (73). Moreover,other three known compoundsmurrayanine (1), mahinimbine (3) andgrinimbine (14) were also identified during this phytochemical work. In Part Bpharmacologicalactivities namely, antifungal and antibacterial and antioxidant activities of isolated compounds have been studied. The three compound girnimbine,murayanine and afifine showed antifungal activities and murrayanine and jerinine showed antibactrial activities against the tested strains. Furthermore, murrayanine, ferinine, girimbine, afifine and jerinine exhibited positive antioxidant activity.