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Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on trade balances: Pakistan versus 20 major trading partners

Thesis Info

Author

Sultan, Mutahir

Program

MS

Institute

Institute of Business Administration

Institute Type

Private

City

Karachi

Province

Sindh

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2017

Page

39

Subject

Comunications

Language

English

Other

CallNo: 382

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676720936651

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Since its inception in (1947), Pakistan has been experiencing several episodes of trade imbalance, disapproving balance of payments and exchange rate volatility. Particularly, Pakistan has experienced currency devaluation for the very first time in 1955 followed by 1972 and 1996. Similarly, in the most recent five fiscal years, Pakistani currency experienced the highest currency devaluation in history. If the currency of a domestic country depreciates, it boosts the domestic country's exports, whereas at the same time imports from the foreign country decreases-higher exports over imports lead to higher trade balances. The depreciated exchange rate cannot adjust trade imbalances instantaneously, rather it first worsens trade balances before achieving equilibrium is known as J-curve. As far as the literature of J-curve in the context of Pakistan is concerned, numerous studies have addressed this important issue using both the aggregate and disaggregate trade data. All the studies have assumed the exchange rate to be symmetric only-implying that currency depreciation improves trade balances while appreciation deteriorates it with the same magnitude. Nevertheless, trade balances respond to exchange rate changes in a nonlinear way therefore, the relationship could be asymmetric. To the best of our knowledge, there has been no study in Pakistan which discusses the asymmetries of the exchange rate and trade balances. Particularly, among the existing literature on J. curve in the context of Pakistan, it is typically confined to only the symmetric relationship of the exchange rate and trade balances which yield mixed outcomes. Hence in this regard, the current the study applies Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (NL-ARDL) of Shin et al., (2014) to examine the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the bilateral trade balances of Pakistan and its 20 major trading partners (i.e., France, Japan, Korea, China, India, Indonesia, Germany, United States of America, United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, Malaysia, Singapore, Belgium, Canada, Hong-Kong, Australia, Spain, Netherland, and Italy). The data for this study is retrieved from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)and State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) for the period 1982QI-2018Q2. The nonlinear model incorporates both the short run and long run asymmetries of exchange rate changes on trade balances. Specifically, the findings of this study found that the short-run asymmetric effects of real exchange rate exist for countries such as the United Kingdom, Malaysia, Germany, Australia, Netherland, Indonesia, Spain, France, Saudi Arabia and Switzerland that subsequently lasted into long-run asymmetric effects for only five trading partners. This short-run and long-run asymmetries suggest that exchange rate depreciation and appreciation have significantly different impacts on trade balances. Also, the results of the nonlinear model yield more evidence in support of the J-curve phenomenon- implying that Pak. Rupee depreciation causes immediate trade deterioration combined with the long-run improvement which however exists incase of Australia and Netherland
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ہاں ہاں زرداری مجرم ہے

ہاں ہاں زرداری مجرم ہے ؟

                                                                                                پروفیسر ڈاکٹر محمد یوسف اعوان

بندوق والوں کا مجرم ؟                           فتوے والوں کا مجرم ؟

زرداری ان سب کا مجرم ہے جن کا بھٹو مجرم تھا ،بے نظیر مجرم تھی ،مرتضی مجرم تھا ،شاہنواز مجرم تھا ،سلمان تاثیر مجرم تھا ،شہباز بھٹی مجرم تھا ،بشیر بلور مجرم تھا،زرداری کو ہر طرح سے توڑا گیا ،گیارہ سال جیل میں رکھ کر ،بھیانک جھوٹے مقدمے بنا کر ،بدترین تشدد کا نشانہ بنا کر ،جیل سے نکال کر وزارت کا حلف اٹھوا کر ،بالآ خر ایوان صدر میں قید کر کے ۔

مگر وہ نہ ٹوٹا ،نہ جھکا نہ بکا بلکہ نا کام دشمن اس کی مسکراہٹ تک نہ توڑ سکے ۔اس پر طرح طرح کے مقدمے بنائے گئے ،مقدمے خود ساختہ ،قاضی اپنے مگر کچھ ثابت نہ کر سکے ،زرداری کی جوانی چھن گئی مگر سچ کا بول بالا ہوا وہ ڈٹا رہا مگر دشمن ہار ماننے والے کب تھے ۔انہوں نے پرکشش الزامات پر مبنی کہانیاں گھڑیں ،میڈیا پر بیٹھے افلاطونوں کو حکم دیا کہ دن رات ان کی کہانیوں کا ڈھنڈورا پیٹو ،اتنا جھوٹ بولو ،بار بار بولو ،لاکھوں بار بولو، جھوٹ کو سچ بنا دو ،بچے بچے کو یاد کروا دو کہ زرداری برا ہے زرداری چور ہے زرداری کرپٹ ہے ۔

مگر وہ نہیں جانتے تھے کہ زرداری کا مقدمہ تاریخ کی عدالت میں ہے ۔تاریخ کی عدالت کسی کی خواہشات کی غلام نہیں ہے ۔تاریخ کی عدالت ثبوت مانگتی ہے ۔تاریخ کی عدالت سچ کو اجاگر کر کے چھوڑتی ہے ۔تاریخ کی عدالت وقت کے فرعون کی طرف سے جھوٹے الزامات کو اٹھا کر باہر پھینک دیتی ہے تاریخ کی عدالت ہر ایک مجرم اور ہر ایک ملزم کو کٹہرے...

السیرة النبوية از احمد بن زینی دحلان (م ۱۳۰۴ھ) کے مباحث فقہیہ کا تحقیقی جائزہ

Ahmad bin zeni Dahlan was born in Mecca on 1231 AH. He was a great scholar of Tafseer, Hadith, Fiqh and Sirah. His book "السیرۃالنبویۃ "is a wonderful piece of writing on sirah of Holy Prophet (PBUH). This book has got a significant place in sirah literature. In this book, Author discusses almost all the aspects of the life of Prophet Muhammad (PBUH), like his attributes, miracles, incidents and battles etc. One of zeni dahlan’s modes of sirah writing is that he derives juristic implications and lessons from the events of sirah which can be called Fiqh al sirah in modern terminology. This article intends to explore the mode of Fiqh al sirah in respect with “Al sirah al nabawiyyah” written by Ahmad bin Zeni Dahlan.

بیسویں صدی میں خیبرپختونخوا میں اردو شاعری کا ارتقا

The aim of this research work is to give a critical appraisal of Urdu poetry in 20th century in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Urdu Ghazal started here in Mughal era and Urdu Nazam lately took importance. Urdu poetry is discussed in detail; prominent poets of KPK have also given much importance in this research work. It has been tried to bring all the changes and factors producing changes into light. A comparison also being made between old and new poets that how and to what extent their way of thinking and subjects vary. For this purpose this research work is divided into five chapters. First chapter is about the culture and geographical location of this province along with the introduction and a brief background of Urdu poetry before 20th century. Poets like Maazullah khan and Qasim Ali Khan have been discussed in detail whose contributions are second to none in this province. The second chapter is the study and analysis of the poetic evolution of pre-partition era. In this chapter the poets of early 20th century and their works have been discussed briefly. Poets like sa'en Ahmed Ali, Ghulam Hussain Misger, Aasi Sarhadi, Dilawar Khan Bedil, Jaffar Ali Jaffery, Barq Ganjavi, Qazi Muhammad Umar Qaza, Mir Waliullah Abbottabadi and Khalis Makki brought a revolution in the field of Ghazal and Nazam (poem). Third chapter of this thesis is the story of poetry and poets of this province emerged after partition till 1980.In this era a number of trends and changes appeared in Ghazal and poems of KPK. Farigh Bukhari, Raza Hamdani, Muhsin Ihsan, Ahmed Faraz, Qateel Shifaie, Khatir Ghaznavi, Yousaf Raja Chishti and Saeed Ahmed Akhtar were the leading poets of this era who brought positive changes in the genre of Ghazal and Nazam. They were the pioneers of Modern poetry in KPK. In this chapter importance has been given to the modern poetry of these poets. The fourth chapter is comprised of the study and evolution of poetry from 1980 to 2013.In the modern age most of the poets are composing Azad Nazams (free verses) along with Ghazal and Nazam. In this era the poetic scenario have been completely changed in this province.poets like Maqbool Aamir, Ghulam Muhammad Qasir, Ahmad Hussain Mujahid, Nishat Sarhadi, Akhtar Raza Saleemi, Ahmed Fawad Aasif Saqib and Bushra Farrukh have tremendous contribution in modern poetry of KPK.I have made a truthful analysis of these poets in this chapter. The last chapter is the overall analysis of the topic and suggestions are listed here for further research work and for the promotion of poetic trends in KPK.