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Dynamic Portfolio Returns: Impact of Macroeconomic Variables

Thesis Info

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Author

Afifa Naseer

Institute

Virtual University of Pakistan

Institute Type

Public

City

Lahore

Province

Punjab

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2016

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Software Engineering

Language

English

Link

http://vspace.vu.edu.pk/detail.aspx?id=93

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676720965347

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Very few researches have constructed both na?ve and diversified portfolio but none of the studies to the best of researcher?s knowledge have explored the impact of macroeconomic variables on both types of portfolio in a particular country. This study excogitates the relationship between naive and diversified portfolio expected returns and macroeconomic variables. The commodities and variables ? KSE 100 index, gold rates, National Savings Certificate (NSC) profit rates, treasury bills (T-Bills) yield, deposit rates and exchange rates - Euro, Great Britain Pound and US Dollar have been considered for construction of equal weighted portfolio. The macroeconomic or explanatory variables ? Producer Price Index (PPI) or Wholesale Price Index (WPI), balance of trade prices, discount rates, crude oil prices, natural gas prices and Consumer Price Index (CPI) are considered for exploring their impact on equal weighted portfolio. The commodities and variables ? KSE 100 index, gold rates, National Savings Certificate (NSC) profit rates, treasury bills (T-Bills) yield, deposit rates and exchange rates - Euro, Great Britain Pound and US Dollar were considered initially from which exchange rate commodities were selected and considered for construction of diversified portfolio based on cut off rate determined from Sharpe ratio. The yields of 12 months treasury bills considered as a risk free security were used for calculating excess returns of these commodities. The macroeconomic or explanatory variables ? Producer Price Index (PPI) or Wholesale Price Index (WPI), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), balance of trade prices, discount rates and crude oil prices were considered for exploring their impact on optimal or diversified portfolio. Monthly data of all these variables was examined from January 2000 to October 2015. The assumptions of Classical Linear Regression Model (CLRM) were met before running the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model. It was found that expected returns of both portfolios are significantly and positively affected by discount rates and wholesale price index and negatively and insignificantly affected by balance of trade (BOT).
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جاوید نامہ

یہ آسمان کے سفر کی روداد ہے۔ اقبال نے سفر خیالات کی دنیا میں کیا۔ ایسا ہی ایک سفر دانتے نے بھی کیا جو ڈیوائن کامیڈی کہلاتا ہے۔ اقبال کا سفر روحانی ہے۔ یہ کتاب 1932ء میں شائع ہو کر سامنے آئی۔ اس سفر پر اقبال کے ساتھ مولانا روم بھی تھے۔ اقبال اور مولانا جلال الدین رومی نے فلک قمر، فلک عطارد، فلک زہرہ، فلک مریخ، فلک مشتری، فلک زحل اور سوئے افلاک سیر کی بہت سے لوگوں کو دیکھا ۔ علم و حکمت کے بہت سے دراقبال پر وا ہوئے۔سیاروں میں ارواح اور ملائکہ سے بات اور ملاقات ہوئی۔ جن سے حقائق اور حالات حاضرہ کے اہم مسائل پر سوالات اور جوابات ہوتے ہیں۔ یہ ایک خاص پہلو ہے جو قدیم دور سے آگہی کا باعث بنتا ہے۔ اس کتاب کی تخلیق یہ بتاتی ہے کہ اس نے اقبال کا دل و دماغ نچوڑ لیا ۔ آپ اپنی اس کتاب کو دیگر کتب پر ترجیح دیتے تھے۔ کتاب کا آخری حصہ "خطاب بہ جاوید " (سخنے بہ نژادنو) ہے۔ یہ ضمنی حصہ ہے۔ اس میں جوان نسل کے لیے نصیحتیں ہیں ۔ جاوید نامہ کے مضامین ، اسلوب ، سچائی اور خلوص دیکھ کر لگتا ہے کہ یہ کسی اور جہاں کی کتاب ہے۔

كورٹ ميرج كى شرعى حيثيت

Court Marriage means a marriage that a wise and mature boy & girl performs only by mutual consent to court and performs some legal requirements without permission of their parents. Due to distance from religion, misuse of media, co-education, vulgarity and male female freely intimacy, in our Islamic society the trend of this marriage is increasing every day. The process of giving more proof of this marriage by judicial decisions and some religious circles has also played an important role in promoting it. Mostly, the result of this is girls run from their homes, parental insult, and destruction of their own lives, public disturbance and social disorder. Today’s need was that in a neutral way this important social issue should be discussed and by giving independent research, the issue of parents’ permission for marriage, particularly for the girl, should be presented in the light of Islamic teachings and in this regard different opinions of the scholars should also be analyzed. So on one side, where the importance of parent's role in marriage will be highlighted, on the other hand, we can be protected from social destruction, ruination of the family system and public disturbance. The following article is presented in detail on this subject.

Exchange rate pass through to consumer price: a TVP VAR analysis for Pakistan

This Study analyzes various aspects Of exchange rate pass through (ERPT) to consumer Prices in Pakistan by using monthly data from April 1991 to December 2016. It measures the magnitude of ERPT With recursive VAR model. The impact of sharp adjustments in exchange rate is also evaluated by incorporating dummy variables with the same empirical method. it also assesses the changes in pass through coefficient by using relatively more flexible empirical method Time Varying Parameters VAR (TVP-VAR) model. Results show that: (I). The magnitude of ERPT estimated from the recursive VAR tends to be low when sharp exchange rate adjustments are not specifically accounted for, however, when these adjustments are incorporated the coefficient increase significantly. (2). Spilt sample analysis with VAR models indicates that the ERPT was relatively higher between 2002 and 2008 due to increased foreign exchange inflows and relatively stable exchange rates phase during that period. Time varying analysis of ERPT suggests that the pass through magnitude varies over time in case of Pakistan. It was higher during February 2007 due to stable exchange rates while lower during March 1996