Primary objective for this research thesis is to empirically examine the evidence of technical analysis as a tool for profitable investment decisions at Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). The research also examines whether the application of technical analysis can enable an investor go achiever higher returns and outperform the returns achievable from the application of traditional and buy and hold (B&H) investment strategy. To achieve this purpose, the thesis comprehensively reviewed the theoretical and empirical studies regarding technical trading strategies and extends its application to PSX. This result benchmarks the returns, using technical trading rules, to passive buy & hold investment strategy.This research is based on secondary data i.e. daily stock price and volume data for 32 companies across 8 sectors listed at the exchange. The companies selected for review had been selected based on significant market capitalization. The selected companies represent, significant (>85%) sectorial representation and overall 66% of PSX-100 market capitalization for the period 2008-2016. A total of 15 technical trading rules (TTR), segregated into leading and lagging indicators, are used in this research in order to identify the trend direction; which are then compared to the traditional B&S trading signals. Two (2) sample paired t-test and comparison with B&H strategy have been utilized in order to find whether there are any significant variations in the returns yield by using TTR and B&H strategy.
The research concludes that there is no one right trading strategy either by using the TTR and B&S Strategy. Profitable returns are contingent upon applying respective investment strategy based on the conditions. TTR can produce satisfactory results, however, it should not be used as a stand-alone method. Research analysis findings show that Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) and Parabolic Stop & Reverse (SAR) exceed the returns from B&H strategy for all the 8 sectors for all the 9 years (with very little exception). In spite of the evidence confirming higher profitability of TTR strategies, significance using t-test cannot be established. In spite the extensive coverage, there are certain key limitations in this empirical research study which related testing procedure. Amongst some of these testing limitations are data snooping, challenges in the quantification and estimation of risk, using of search technologies and ex post selection of TTR. Any future research on the topic should aim to address these challenges in testing procedures to provide the basis for reasonable affirmation for the profitability of technical trading strategies. The research also concludes that at an overall level (in the context of PSX) B&H strategy generates higher returns to investors as compared to TTR.
آہ! مولوی نور عظیم ندوی دارالعلوم ندوۃ العلماء کے لائق فرزند اور ہونہار استاد مولوی نور عظیم ندوی چند ماہ کی علالت کے بعد وفات پاگئے، اِناﷲ وَ اِنا اِلَیہ رَاجِعُون۔ وہ دارالعلوم سے فراغت کے بعد مزید تعلیم کے لیے مصر گئے، اردو کی طرح عربی لکھنے اور بولنے کی اچھی مشق تھی اور درس و تدریس کے ساتھ ہی تقریر و تحریر میں بھی اپنا جوہر دکھاتے تھے، جلسوں کی نظامت بڑی خوبی اور سلیقہ سے کرتے تھے، جس سمینار کی کاروائی وہ چلاتے وہ ضرور کامیاب ہوتا۔ پڑھنے لکھنے کا اچھا ذوق تھا اور اسی میں ان کا سارا وقت گزرتا، ندوۃ العلماء سے شائع ہونے والے اردو اور عربی جرائد میں ان کے مضامین وقتاً فوقتاً چھتے تھے۔ ایک زمانہ میں ندائے ملت کے عملاً وہی اڈیٹر تھے، تعلیم اور دوسرے موضوعات پر اس کے خاص نمبر بھی نکالے، مولانا سید ابوالحسن علی ندوی مدظلہ کی سرپرستی میں رابطہ ادب اسلامی کا قیام عمل میں آیا تو اس کے روح رواں مولانا سید محمد رابع ندوی کے یہی دست راست اور رابطہ کے ترجمان کے ایڈیٹر بھی تھے۔ ان کے پاس بعض اشخاص اور اکیڈمیوں کے مسودے تبصرے یا اصلاح کے لیے آتے تھے جن کو بڑے غور و توجہ سے پڑھتے، تحریر کی خوبیوں اور خرابیوں پر ان کی نظر فوراً پڑتی۔ اس معاملہ پر مولانا علی میاں مدظلہ بھی ان پر اعتماد کرتے تھے۔ ان کا وطن ضلع بستی تھا اور وہ مسلکاً اہل حدیث تھے لیکن ندوۃ العلماء میں شیرولشکر کی طرح گھل مل گئے تھے، بڑے خاموش طبع، کم سخن، خلیق اور متواضع تھے، ان کی عمر پچاس (۵۰) کی رہی ہوگی، آئندہ ان سے بڑی توقعات وابستہ تھیں لیکن ابھی اپنی چمک دمک بھی نہیں دکھانے پائے تھے کہ وقت موعود آگیا۔ خوش درخشید ولے...
Allah the elevated bestowed on prophet Muhammad SAW two basic sources of guidance for Muslim Ummah, The holy Quran and Hadith. Due to this significance of Hadith, Muslims have invented more than five hundred sciences related to Hadith. One of these sciences is Ilm Garb ul Hadith. Sheikh Moaamer bin muthana was the first scholar who has written a book on this topic. From then on Muslim scholars have researched a lot in this regard. Dozens of scholars spent their time and wealth on it. According to the author of Moaajm ul mua’ajam more than 90 books on the topic have been published but eight of them gained much publicity and famous hood among them. Abu Ubaida, Abu Adnan, Abu Ubaida Qasim bin Salam, Ibrahim bin Ishaq Al Harbi, Abu Ubaida Ahmed bin Muhammad Alhervi, Ibn Jauzi, Muhammad bin Atheer Aljazree, Zemakhsharee. The following article consists of a brief introduction of Ilm Gharib ul Hadith along with a brief history of research about it. Then the eight famous books on Gharib ul Hadith and there way of research are examined in brief along with examples. At last a comparative study of the work done by these eight scholars is given in order to explore the differences and similarities among them.
Title: Diagnostic Utility of WHO Defined Sepsis syndromic Criteria with Procalcitonin in Identification of Sepsis in Children with Suspected Infections Background: Bacterial infections are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in children but accurate and timely diagnosis remains a challenge to the frontline clinicians. Cultures of sterile bodily specimens are considered the gold standard but are insensitive and results are delayed. Procalcitonin (PCT) has recently emerged as a biomarker with high sensitivity and specificity making it superior to culture based techniques performed in non-ideal circumstances which prevail in resource poor settings. This study investigated the diagnostic utility World Health Organization (WHO) defined criteria for sepsis in diagnosis of bacterial sepsis using procalcitonin (PCT) as the “gold standard”. Methods: This was a prospective survey conducted between July to October 2014 whose primary objective was to determine the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of WHO definitions of sepsis syndromes using procalcitonin as the ‘gold standard’ in children with suspected infections. Our secondary objective was to investigate association between PCT elevation and severity of disease and other markers of sepsis. The study was conducted at the paediatrics casualty of the Aga Khan University Hospital, Nairobi (AKUHN) and enrolled children aged >30 days and ≤15 years with suspected infection. This was defined as presence of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) (abnormal temperature (>38.5°C or12hours. Children with obvious causes of SIRS such as mechanical/surgical trauma, severe burns, cancer, and without parental/guardian consent were excluded. A standard clinical proforma that allowed classification into various WHO clinical sepsis syndromes for enrolled patients was fulfilled by attending clinician. Blood sample of 0.5ml was collected and PCT test done. Sensitivity (Sp), specificity (Sn), negative and positive predictive values (NPV, PPV), and positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+, LR-) were calculated for the WHO syndromic definitions. The gold standard for bacterial sepsis was defined as PCT level ≥0.5μg/l. Logistic regression was done and odds ratios calculated to test for association between procalcitonin and disease severity/clinical signs. Kaplan Meier survival analysis was done to compare duration of hospitalisation in various sub-groups. Results: A total of 231 children were enrolled and 22% (51 children) fulfilled criteria for WHO sepsis syndrome. WHO sepsis syndromes definitions had low Sn, 56.9% (95% CI; 50.5%, 63.3%) and Sp, 66.7% (95% CI; 60.6%, 72.8%) for diagnosis of sepsis. PPV was 32.6% (95% CI; 26.5%, 38.6%) and NPV was 84.5% (95% CI; 79.8% 89.2%). Presence of WHO