چھایا ہوا فضاؤں میں اس درجہ ڈر ہے آج
عریاں ہیں،بے لباس ہیں سوچوں کے زاویے
اک آسرے کے واسطے دو شانے چاہئیں
سورج کو کھینچ کھانچ کے ظلمت سے لائی ہے
دل نے سرابِ آرزو کاٹا ہے اس طرح
ہر قیس پیشہ، محملِ شہرت میں کھو گیا
اب کون کشتِ شعرکو خونِ جگر پلائے
کابوس کی گرفت میں ہر دیدہ ور ہے آج
نظّارگی سے آنکھ چراتی نظر ہے آج
دستار ، بے نیازِ سرِ معتبر ہے آج
اک سورما کے روپ میں اُٹھی سحر ہے آج
صحرا بقیدِحیطۂ دیوار و در ہے آج
کب غیر نفع بخش یہ داغِ جگر ہے آج
آسانیوں کی قید میں دستِ ہنر ہے آج
This study aims to calculate the allowance for losses by applying Gaussian Process regression to estimate future claims. Modeling is done on motor vehicle insurance data. The data used in this study are historical data on PT XYZ's motor vehicle insurance business line during 2017 and 2019 (January 2017 to December 2019). Data analysis will be carried out on the 2017 - 2019 data to obtain an estimate of the claim reserves in the following year, namely 2018 - 2020. This study uses the Chain Ladder method which is the most popular loss reserving method in theory and practice. The estimation results show that the Gaussian Process Regression method is very flexible and can be applied without much adjustment. These results were also compared with the Chain Ladder method. Estimated claim reserves for PT XYZ's motor vehicle business line using the chain-ladder method, the company must provide funds for 2017 of 8,997,979,222 IDR in 2018 16,194,503,605 IDR in 2019 amounting to Rp. 1,719,764,520 for backup. Meanwhile, by using the Bayessian Gaussian Process method, the company must provide funds for 2017 of 9,060,965,077 IDR in 2018 amounting to 16,307,865,130 IDR, and in 2019 1,731,802,871 IDR for backup. The more conservative Bayessian Gaussian Process method. Motor vehicle insurance data has a short development time (claims occur) so that it is included in the short-tail type of business.
Rhetorical Factors in Perpetuation of Power in Contemporary Power Politics This study explores the way in which language is manipulated and misused by political leaders of dominant powers. The use of rhetorical devices such as euphemism and dysphemism in the political speeches of president G.W Bush of the United States of America and prime minister Tony Blair of the United Kingdom when investigated through the use of CDA (Critical Discourse Analysis), has highlighted the fact that ideological manipulations are stated, performed, maintained and at times, inculcated through discursive structures, It provides information about the general emptiness and deceitfulness of political rhetoric and in this context, has discussed the increasing use of euphemism, dysphemism as binary oppositions in politics of power relevant to the modem day scenario, with special emphasis on the role of language after 9/11. The rhetorical devices have turned out to be very accurate criteria for the evaluation of the mind-set and opinions in the ideological manipulations of the discourse and are closely tied up with 'Polarization' of the intended positive self representation 'US' and negative other representation 'THEM'. The study as the first step would discuss the tools or language such as euphemism and dysphemism and their usage through binary oppositions that are later to be applied to the text collected through media, magazines, books, and the internet. These are the discursive structures applied to boost, tone down, avoid or exaggerate the issues. The impact of these speeches on Pakistan and the way its Government responded to it, is going to be discussed later on. The findings of the study can be beneficial in the development of students' and scholars' critical thinking abilities in the comprehension and production of language and also stimulate them to equip themselves with relevant devices to detect manipulative and ideologically biased language.