Implementation of Gaussian Process Regression in Estimating Motor Vehicle Insurance Claims Reserves

This study aims to calculate the allowance for losses by applying Gaussian Process regression to estimate future claims. Modeling is done on motor vehicle insurance data. The data used in this study are historical data on PT XYZ's motor vehicle insurance business line during 2017 and 2019 (January 2017 to December 2019). Data analysis will be carried out on the 2017 - 2019 data to obtain an estimate of the claim reserves in the following year, namely 2018 - 2020. This study uses the Chain Ladder method which is the most popular loss reserving method in theory and practice. The estimation results show that the Gaussian Process Regression method is very flexible and can be applied without much adjustment. These results were also compared with the Chain Ladder method. Estimated claim reserves for PT XYZ's motor vehicle business line using the chain-ladder method, the company must provide funds for 2017 of 8,997,979,222 IDR in 2018 16,194,503,605 IDR in 2019 amounting to Rp. 1,719,764,520 for backup. Meanwhile, by using the Bayessian Gaussian Process method, the company must provide funds for 2017 of 9,060,965,077 IDR in 2018 amounting to 16,307,865,130 IDR, and in 2019 1,731,802,871 IDR for backup. The more conservative Bayessian Gaussian Process method. Motor vehicle insurance data has a short development time (claims occur) so that it is included in the short-tail type of business.

Analysis of Foreign Language Teachers’ Professional Development: A Case Study of National University of Modern Languages

This case study was aimed at analyzing the current status of foreign language teachers’ professional development (FLTPD) at NUML, with focus on key areas of training & qualification, key teaching competencies, enabling competencies, and professionalism and measures taken by concerned authorities for their professional development (PD) in these areas. “European Profiling Grid” for language teachers’ PD was used as conceptual framework. This multiple instrumental case study was delimited to foreign language (FL) teachers working in 15 FL departments of NUML and each department was considered as a case. It was a mixed method descriptive research; both qualitative and quantitative approaches were used to collect and analyze data. Triangulation design was used; multiple perspectives were considered, involving FL teachers, their heads and university administration. Questionnaire, semi-structured interview and document analysis were used for data collection, which were designed keeping in view the conceptual framework. Data was collected during spring 2015, was analyzed for each of the 15 cases separately and later merged together for interpretation. This study analyzed the current situation of different factors that affect PD including working conditions, developmental stages of teachers and their organization. Findings of this study revealed that although opportunities are being provided but most of them are not specifically designed for FL teachers. More focused PD is needed to improve these areas, especially education & training, assessed teaching, methodology: knowledge & skills, and digital media need further development. Other problems faced by FL teachers include limited opportunities of higher education in Pakistan, lack of personal resources and organizational support for going to TL countries, unclear administrative policies, inadequate facilities for research, lack of time and human resources, lack of leadership, absence of qualified FL teacher educators, lack of collegial sharing and interaction, no access to latest material and technology, absence of motivation and incentives etc. This study provided statistics and recommendations for the introduction and development of an adequate and uniform process of PD according to the needs and levels of FL teachers and need of specific FLTPD through professional FL teacher educators was emphasized in the recommendations.