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A Macroeconometric Model for Trade Policy Evaluation: Evidence from Pakistan

Thesis Info

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Author

Jawaid, Syed Tehseen

Program

PhD

Institute

University of Karachi

City

Karachi

Province

Sindh

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2018

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Economics

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/10404/1/Syed%20Tehseen%20Jawaid_Eco_2018_UoK_PRR.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676724420880

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Trade policies are an essential enabler of economic growth, job creation, and poverty reduction for developed as well as developing countries. Trade provides new market opportunities for domestic firms, stronger productivity, and innovation through competition. The macroeconometric modelsplay an important contribution in policy optimization. After reviewing Pakistan’s regional trade performance, it is concluded that regional trade can play a vital role in the economic development of Pakistan. To sustain this improvement, there is a need to construct a macroeconomic model to forecast regional trade and perform scenario analysis to make growth enhancing policies for the country. In this study, we develop a macroeconometric model for evaluation of region related trade policyand forecasting of trade performance of Pakistan. These regions are Organization of Islamic Council (OIC), Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Association of SouthEast Asian Nations (ASEAN), South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and the rest of the world. Macroeconometric model has been developed that contains 15 behavioral equations and 8 identities. Cointegration results suggest there exist long run relationships among variables of all behavioral equations. Additionally, results of different policy shocks based on (i) export price, (ii) importprice, (iii) exchange rate, (iv) foreign direct investment, (v) interest rate and (vi) foreign exchange reservesuggest that the model is useful for economic planning to sustain growth performance of Pakistan. In addition to this, it is also noticed that very few studies attempt to examine the relationship between international trade and human development. Some panel and cross section studies have been done but mostly Pakistan has not been included. This study also examines first time ever the effect of aggregate and disaggregates trade on human development in Pakistan by vi using annual time series data. This study contains five models in which human development with (i) total trade (ii) aggregate exports (iii) aggregate imports (iv) exports of primary commodities, semi manufactured goods and manufactured goods and (v) imports of consumer goods, imports of capital goods, imports of industrial raw material of consumer goods and imports of industrial raw material for consumer goods are considered. Cointegration test has been applied to check the long run relationship between human development and trade. Sensitivity analysis confirms that initial results are robust. Causality analysis has also been done the causal relationship between international trade and human development. Generally, it is concluded that trade is a significant contributor to human development in Pakistan.
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١۔ محمد الدین فوق کی ادبی خدمات

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ڈاکٹر نصیر احمد اسد

محمد الدین فوق (۱۸۷۷ء) کوٹلی ہر نرائن سیالکوٹ پیدا ہوئے۔ فوقؔ تخلص کرتے تھے۔ فوق بڑے ذہین تھے۔ طالب علمی کے زمانہ میں نظیر اکبر آبادی کی ایک مشہور نظم ‘‘کیا خوب سودا نقد ہے’ اس ہاتھ دے اس ہاتھ لے’’ کا فارسی نظم میں ترجمہ کیا۔ فوق فطری شاعر تھے اور بچپن سے ہی موزوں طبع تھے۔ فوق نے ۱۸۹۲ء میں شعر کہنے شروع کئے۔ان کا ایک ایک شعر وطن(کشمیر) کی محبت اور اسلام کے درد میں ڈوبا ہوا ہے۔ فوق پہلے شاعر ہیں جنہوں نے مستقل طور پر مسلمانِ کشمیر کی ترجمانی کرتے ہوئے دنیا کو ان کی مظلومیت سے آگاہ کیا۔

آپ کی شاعری کا مقصد مسلمانوں کی اصلاح بھی تھا۔ اقبال نے ‘‘شکوہ’’ اور ‘‘جواب شکوہ’’ نظمیں لکھی ہیں۔ فوق نے بھی اسی طرح ‘‘بڈ شاہ کی روح سے خطاب’’ نظم میں کشمیریوں کی زبوں حالی کا اسی لہجہ میں رونا رویا ہے۔ فوق غزل میں داغ دہلوی اور قومی نظموں میں علامہ اقبال سے متاثر تھے۔ فوق کا شعری کلام ہندوستان کے معروف رسائل میں چھپتا رہا۔آپ کا پہلا شعری مجموعہ ‘‘کلامِ فوق’’ کے نام سے ۱۹۰۹ء میں شائع ہوا۔ اس مجموعے کے دو حصے ہیں۔ پہلے حصے میں ۱۸۹۵ء سے ۱۹۰۱ء تک کا کلام ہے اس حصے میں غزلیں زیادہ ہیں۔ دوسرا حصہ ۱۹۰۲ء سے ۱۹۰۹ء تک کے کلام پر محیط ہے۔ اس حصے میں نظموں کی تعداد بھی خاصی ہے۔ کلامِ فوق کا دوسرا ایڈیشن ۱۹۳۳ء میں شائع ہوا اس کی ضخامت ۱۴۰ صفحات سے بڑھ کر ۲۴۰ صفحات تک پہنچ گئی ہے۔ اس میں پروفیسر علم الدین کا مفصل دیباچہ بھی شامل ہے۔ فوق کا دوسرا شعری مجموعہ ‘‘نغمہ و گلزار’’ کے نام سے ۱۹۴۱ء میں شائع ہوا۔ اس کی...

اسلام کے اخلاقی اور اعتقادی نظام میں ماحولیاتی تحفظ

Just as the prophet  and messenger from Allah Ta’ala direct man towards the creator, it also regulates the relationships of human life and helps him to return to the nature of Allah Ta’ala, which invites man to find goodness, happiness and well-being in creatures. We invite all researchers and intellectuals to know the facts of heavenly laws and religions, especially the teachings of  “Islam”. Since Islam is the essence of all divine religions, it deals with human life in particular and the universe in general and the life of nature around it in great detail, just as Islam focuses on Human beings. In the same way animals, plants and inanimate objects are also looked after otherwise what is the meaning of talking about issues related to tree planting, agriculture, water and other natural environment.  Human distance and ignorance from the role of religions on environmental protection is an important cause of environmental pollution, protection and its elements to restore. The religious teachings and spiritual guidance of all heavenly religious regarding  environmental protection can play an important role in the protection can play an important role in the protection of the environment, so the cause of the  environmental crisis and the invasion of its resources is a departure from spirituality and religious instructions and materialism. For example, those materialistic countries that do not believe in religions are engaged in destroying the ecological elements. Just so that they can get material facilities. They have become involved in wars and conflicts all of which they have been exposed to environmental disasters are which has never been observed by humanity in the history due to which these countries are suffering from environmental crisis on a large scale due to which it has become difficult to live in these countries.

Term Discrimination Based Robust Text Classification With Application to E-Mail Spam Filtering

The Internet has touched every part of our lives, including our interactions and communications. Printed books are being replaced by electronic books (e-books), personal and official correspon- dences have shifted to electronic mail (e-mail), and news is now being read online. This is gener- ating huge volumes of unstructured textual data that needs to be analyzed, filtered, and organized automatically in order to harness its wealth of information for profitable gains. By 2013, it is projected that the worldwide volume of e-mails will reach 507 billion e-mails per day out of which 89% will be spam e-mails [Radicati (2009)]. In 2008, the cost of spam to businesses in terms of hardware, software, and human resource cost was around $140 billion [Research (2008)]. Content-based text classification can automatically organize text documents into predefined thematic categories. However, text classification is challenging in the modern Internet environment. Firstly, text documents are sparsely represented in a very high dimensional feature space (easily in hundred thousands), making learning and generalization difficult. Secondly, due to the high cost of labeling documents researchers are forced to collect training data from sources different from the target domain, which results in a distribution shift between training and test data. Thirdly, although unlabeled data is easily available its utilization in practical text classification for improved performance remains a challenge. One important domain for text classification, which embodies these challenges, is that of e-mail spam filtering. A typical e-mail service provider (ESP) caters to thousands to millions of users where each user can have his own interests of topics and preferences for spam and non-spam e-mails. Personalized service-side spam filtering provides a solution to this problem; however, for such solutions to be practically usable they must be efficient, scalable, and robust to distribution shifts. In this thesis, we propose a robust text classification technique that combines local generative models and global discriminative classifiers through the use of discriminative term weighting and linear opinion pooling. Terms in the documents are assigned weights that quantify the discrimina- tion information they provide for one category over the others. These weights, called discriminative term weights (DTW), also serve to partition the terms into two sets. An opinion pooling strategy consolidates the discrimination information of terms in the sets to yield a two dimensional feature space, in which a discriminant function is learned to categorize the documents. In addition to a supervised technique, we also develop two semi-supervised variants for personalizing the local and global models using unlabeled data. We then generalize our technique into a classifier framework that integrates different feature selection criteria, discriminative term weighting schemes, infor- mation pooling strategies, and discriminative classifiers. We provide a theoretical comparison of our proposed framework with existing generative, discriminative, and hybrid classifiers. Our text classification framework is evaluated with five discriminative term weighting strategies, six opinion consolidation techniques, and four discriminative classifiers. We employ nine real-world datasets from different domains in our experimental evaluation, and the results are compared with four benchmark text classification algorithms via accuracy and AUC values. Our framework is also evaluated under varying distribution shift, on gray e-mails, on unseen e-mails, and under varying classifier size. Scalability of our spam filter is also demonstrated for personalized service-side spam filtering. Statistical significance tests confirm that our technique performs significantly better than the compared techniques in both supervised and semi-supervised settings, and in global and person- alized spam filtering. In particular, it performs remarkably well when distribution shift is high between training and test data, a phenomenon common in e-mail systems. Additional contributions of this thesis include a systematic analysis of the spam filtering problem and the challenges to effective global and personalized spam filtering at the service side. We formally define key characteristics of e-mail classification such as distribution shift and gray e-mails, and relate them to machine learning problem settings. The concept of term discrimination introduced in this work has also found applications in text clustering, visualization, and feature extraction, and it can be extended for keyword extraction and topic identification from textual documents.