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An Analysis of the Impact of Government Budget Deficit on the Key Macroeconomic Variables in Pakistan: 1960-2005

Thesis Info

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Author

Khan, Abdul Qayyum

Program

PhD

Institute

University of Peshawar

City

Peshawar

Province

KPK

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2009

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Economics

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/12264/1/Abdul%20Qayyum%20Khan%20economics%202009%20uni%20of%20peshwar%20prr.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676724476463

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The aim of this study was to achieve three main objectives. Firstly to analyze the impact of budget deficit on macroeconomic variables, secondly to analyze the effect of domestic bank borrowing and external borrowing on budget deficit and thirdly to analyze the causality among the macroeconomic variables. Annual data for the sample period 1960-2005, taken from Economic Surveys of Pakistan and International Financial Statistics was used. Simultaneous equation model was used to investigate the mechanism through which the monetary and fiscal impulses were channeled and then their effects were transmitted to other macroeconomic variables. The effects of increase in money supply due to borrowing from domestic banking system and foreign borrowing to finance budget deficit were channeled through private and public investment to other macroeconomic variables. Linear regression model was used to analyze the effect of domestic borrowing and external borrowing on budget deficit. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model was used to analyze the causality among the macroeconomic variables, using the impulse response function (IRF) and the error variance decomposition analysis. The stationarity of the time series data was checked by using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was used to select the optimum lag. Johansen Likelihood Ratio (LR) test was used to ascertain the cointegration in the regressions used for analysis. Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) was used to analyze the existence of short term disequilibrium in the model. The study revealed that fiscal and monetary variables are important to determine the macroeconomic stability in Pakistan. The expansion in government capital expenditure through money supply for two cases (short term/long term) indicates that this policy in short term had no favorable impacts upon Pakistan economic development in terms of crowding-in effects. The rapidity of adjustment during the whole process towards long run steady state was very low. In the long-term this policy had favorable impacts on both private and public investment (crowding-in effects).The short-term and long-term policies both had favorable impact in terms of output development. It results in gain of better internal performance in terms of consumption expenditure, capital expenditure and balance of trade. In short-term domestic outputs adjust previous discrepancy in the same period, and had the capacity to gain competitiveness and a better external performance. The short-term policies for foreign sector were uncertain. A short-term result indicates that frequent devaluation will not improve trade balance but would increase the cost of production. The long-term policies had favorable impact in terms of foreign sector development. Income elasticity of export was less than the income elasticity of import. Instead of having favorable impact of devaluation on foreign sector in long-term, Pakistan trade balance deteriorated in line with deterioration in foreign assets stocks. The employment generating capacity of output growth was low. Budget deficit financing in terms of borrowing from domestic banking system and foreign borrowing had almost the same capability of financing budget deficit, but the financing elasticity of foreign borrowing with respect to budget deficit was greater than one, indicating that Pakistan relies mostly on foreign borrowing for deficit financing, which results in foreign reserve outflows. Any innovation of one standard deviation towards economic growth and budget deficit took seven years for each one to become effective, while for unemployment it took eight years and for poverty reduction it took more than ten years to become effective. The response of the four macroeconomic variables (Economic growth, budget deficit, unemployment, and poverty) to innovations or impulses introduced were mostly explained in their own. Only two unilateral causality were present, and mostly independent type relationships were detected. Based on the finding of the study it is recommended that government should give priority to long-term private/public investment policies, which can gain better results in economic growth, poverty alleviation and unemployment reduction. Export sector needs more attention in terms of quality standard, price control, and internationally adopted marketing strategies. Parallel and effective running of monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies are needed to reduce balance of payment deficit. Market based economy development, privatization, skill development, and merit based recruitment policies may also accelerate employment generating capacity of output growth. The existing fiscal policy needs alteration in terms of objective achievement and prolonged channels towards implementation. Multidimensional fiscal policies with coordination of monetary policy will be appropriate to combat all the macroeconomic evils. Domestic sources of deficit financing should encourage to deter foreign reserve outflows. Three separate government policies in respect of budget deficit reduction indicates that the reduction in government expenditure (capital or consumption) exerts the most undesirable influence on the overall macroeconomic performance, and domestic source financing policy produces favorable impact compared to foreign borrowing financing. Hence, the reduction in government expenditure in order to reduce the budget deficit is not the best strategy and especially the policy of reducing government capital expenditure. The government expansionary monetary policy for budget deficit reduction would have some positive effects on Pakistan‘s economy, but the government has to be conscious about the inflationary effects of this policy.
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حضورِ شاہؐ کھڑا ہوں میں نعت لکھتے ہوئے

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قسم خدا کی بڑا ہوں میں نعت لکھتے ہوئے

خطائیں اپنی جو سوچوں تو کانپ اُٹھتا ہوں
زمیں کے بیچ گڑا ہوں میں نعت لکھتے ہوئے

درِ خدا بھی ملا ہے ترے ہی در کے طفیل
ترے ہی در پہ کھڑا ہوں میں نعت لکھتے ہوئے

یہ کائنات ہے انگشتری کی صورت میں
نگیں مثال جَڑا ہوں میں نعت لکھتے ہوئے

میں نعت لکھنے کے قابل کہاں ہوا عابدؔ
سو خود سے یوں بھی لڑا ہوں میں نعت لکھتے ہوئے

Adultery, the Ground for Dissolution of Christian Marriage in Pakistan: Intersectional Constraint to Christian Women in Pakistan

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Studies on Dissolution and Prevention Effects of Hajrul Yahood, Sang Sarmahi, Phyllanthus Niruri on Calcium Containing Kidney Stones in Rats.

Nephrolithiasis has severe ramifications with respect to health and management cost. Current modalities of treatment though very effective in getting provisional relief from stones are not devoid of side effects and also fail to avert the recurrence, which is in fact the main concern of patients with kidney stones. Hajrul yahood, Phyllanthus niruri and Cystone have been used in folk medicine since ages and are well known for their lithotriptic and anti- urolithic properties. The present study was carried out at the animal house of Sindh Agriculture University Tando Jam to evaluate the litholytic and anti -urolithic effects of Hajrul yahood, Sang sarmahi, Phyllanthus niruri and cystone on glyoxylate induced nephrolithiatic rats. For this purpose, seventy eight male wistar rats were equally divided into thirteen groups of six rats each. Hajrul yahood, Sang sarmahi and Phyllanthus niruri were administered either alone or in combination of equal quantity of each by weight. Cystone given alone was also utilized as a standard drug to compare the effects of Hajrul Yahood, Sang Sarmahi and Phyllanthus Niruri on calcium oxalate kidney stones. Calcium oxalate crystallization was induced by intraperitoneal injections of Glyoxalate prior to start of the treatment in the litholytic groups and was administered along with the test drugs in the groups. At the completion of treatment period, serum samples from 42 rats in groups; and both the kidneys from all the experimental rats were recovered. Serum was analyzed for the activity of anti-oxidant enzymes superoxide dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GPX), catalase (CAT); and levels of calcium, magnesium, oxalate and creatinine. Right kidney was homogenized with phosphate buffer saline (PBS), and centrifuged. Supernatant thus obtained was analyzed for the levels of SOD, GPX, CAT, reduced glutathione (GSH) and malondialdehyde (MDA). The left kidney was fixed in Bouin liquid, embedded in paraffin, sectioned and stained with hematoxylin and eosin H&E for histological examination under polarized light microscope. Serum analysis results showed that the activity of antioxidant enzymes and magnesiumlevel in rat groups treated with cystone, combination, HY and PN were lower in the order given as against the negative controls, but were significantly higher than that of the positive controls (p<0.05). Serum calcium level was found to be in normal range in cystone, combination, HY and PN treated groups of rats, but it was lower than normal in positive controls. Both serum oxalate and creatinine levels were detected to be significantly lower in cystone, combination, HY and PN treated groups of rats as compared with positive controls. A similar comparison of the parameters measured in tissue samples revealed that antioxidant enzyme activities and reduced glutathione level were significantly enhanced in cystone, combination, HY, and PN treated groups of rats as against the positive controls. In contrast, tissue MDA levels were seen to be significantly lower in cystone, combination, HY and PN treated groups of rats than the positive controls. Histological findings of renal tissue sections were also consistent with the serum and tissue chemistries showing lesser damage to the kidney tissue and calcification in cystone, combination and HY treated groups of rats as against the positive controls. Cystone in comparison to combined treatment exhibited better nephro-protection against hyperoxaluria induced oxidative stress because of its increased antioxidant enzyme activities and increased glutathione and magnesium levels. In conclusion, present study has demonstrated the litholytic,and nephroprotective effects of cystone, HY and PN due to their high antioxidant capacity to inhibit lipid peroxidation in glyoxylate induced hyperoxaluric rats and also due to their ability to reduce oxalate synthesis. Sang sarmahi however, in contrast to the general notion has failed to exhibit any significant litholytic and anti urolithic effects at the dose used in present study.