The main focus of the present study is to investigate the model that is most superior to estimate, forecast and analyze and further examine the spillover effects of portfolio returns volatility of the stocks traded in Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) of Pakistan for the time period of July 1998 to June 2011on daily basis. From 100 stocks, 10 portfolio returns (10 stocks each) are constructed sorted on high/low betas to estimate portfolio volatility. Due to autoregressiveness and heteroskedasticity characteristic of stock returns ARCH models are used to estimate the volatilities of portfolio returns. For analysis one symmetric GARCH-M model and three asymmetric TGARCH-M, EGARCH-M and PGARCH-M are used where conditional mean equation follows ARMA specification. The GARCH-M Models are employed because they allow to estimate the reward for facing the volatility risk by the investor. Based on the specification criteria of minimum Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the higher R2, the ARMA (1, 0)-EGARCH (1, 1)-M is found to be the better specification to estimate portfolio returns volatility for all 10 portfolios. To arrive at the best model to estimate volatility for 10 portfolios returns the specific to general approach is adopted based on EGARCH-M specification. The specific models are extended by including first portfolios volume, then business cycle variables(market return, oil prices, gold prices, foreign exchange, foreign cash reserves), then deterministic shocks and finally stochastic shocks. The in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance evaluation suggests that general model is most superior to estimate and forecast portfolio returns volatility for all ten portfolios. The ARMA(1,0)-EGARCH(1,1)-M in general form is used further for examining the volatility spillover effect between the high risky and low risky portfolio returns volatilities and also among high risk, low risky portfolio volatility and business cycle variables. The results reveal that the high/low beta portfolios returns are more volatile and that the risk premium for facing volatility risk by almost all of the high-beta portfolios returns is highly significant compared to the low-beta portfolios returns. This indicates that the low-beta portfolios are less volatile and hence slowly respond to the new/surprises. The forecasting performance of the low-beta portfolios returns volatilities is high relative to the high-beta portfolios returns volatilities because of the strong predictability power of the less risky stocks relative to the high volatile stocks. Also, the empirical results reveal the existence of the volatility spillover effect between the high beta portfolio returns and the low beta portfolio returns as well as between the high/low portfolio returns and the business cycle variables respectively. The present study tend to be a comprehensive study that engulfs in itself all of the major and potential factors that may influence the portfolios returns volatilities and the predictability of the high-to-low beta portfolios returns volatilities as well as the volatility spillover effect. This analysis could be helpful for the academicians, researchers, financial analysts, local and foreign investors, portfolio managers, macro-economic policy makers and the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan to forecast volatility, analyze spillover effects on one hand. On the other hand, the present study uses this analysis for understanding linkage between stock market volatility and financial and business cycle variables, development of modern corporate sector and efficient capital market to foster investment and economic growth in Pakistan.
This paper will highlight the significance importance of the Islamic microfinance working in Pakistan as well as across the world. In 2007, the Great economic damage the global economy of the world including United States, European Union as well as Asia, it made the researcher to study about the alternate system in the replacement of Conventional Financial System, after that study and research they recognized that there is no concept of interest in Islamic Financial System, it is totally based on asset-based system, this recognition shift their area of interest from conventional financial system to Islamic financial system. Islamic financialSystem plays a significant role in economic growth of a country through accumulation of deposits and providing the plate form of financing to speed up economic activities. In the last two decades, the traditional microfinance is replaced by the Islamic microfinance in Pakistan as well as in the whole world. This paper will highlight the working methodology of Islamic microfinance models and institutions that how these Islamic microfinance institutions working asan interest free sector in Pakistan and in the world. The paper is also highlighting the difference between conventional micro financing and Islamic micro financing that what are the models and functions that differs the Islamic micro financing from the traditional micro financing.
Electronic equipments are considered to be indispensable commodities globally. Photocopiers are notable initiator of indoor air pollution ascribable to emissions in terms of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs), Ozone and Ultrafine particles. Assorted studies inter-related photocopying and printing operations with genotoxic potential, immunological and pulmonary illnesses. In the work shift, photocopying operators are exposed to substantial chemical compounds. The current prevalence of health concerns and the effects of chemical exposure in employees of photocopying centers are still unknown in Pakistani population. The current study was aimed to contemplate the photocopying work environment and to explore the associated health effects. The real time monitoring of TVOCs and Ozone was performed to interpret the spatial and temporal variability in the indoor air quality of photocopying centers (n=200) of Lahore, Pakistan. A cross-sectional study was designed using representative employees from photocopying centers (n=100) compared to a Control group (n=100) to evaluate the health issues associated with the exposure. The concentrations of specific VOCs i.e., Benzene, Toluene and Styrene were assessed in both the study groups using HPLC. Moreover, the hematological parameters, total protein content and lipid peroxidation level as indicator of oxidative stress were discerned. The Pulmonary Function Testing was performed using Spirometry. The genotoxic potential of the chemicals was investigated by the DNA damage and cell death indicators in the buccal mucosal cells.In photocopying centers, the average concentration for TVOC and Ozone were detected to be 0.683 mg/m3 and 161.59 µg/m3 respectively. The TVOC concentration existed to be in multifactorial or discomfort zone. The baseline characteristics in terms of age, weight and height etc of both the study groups i.e. Experimental and Control group were not significantly different. The concentrations of Benzene, Toluene and Styrene were found to be significantly different between Experimental and Control Groups. Most of the hematological parameters were found to be significantly different between Experimental and Control groups except for PLT, LYM#, MXD#, PDW and P-LCR. The biochemical parameters in terms of Total Protein content, Albumin and Globulin were computed to be significantly different between Experimental and Control groups. The plasma LPO level was assessed to be significantly higher in Experimental group (2.25+0.60 µM/L) as compared to the Control group (1.19+0.26 µM/L). Findings showed that the plasma LPO was positively correlated with exposure duration (years) in Experimental group (R 0.729) with high statistical significance (p<0.001). The frequencies of DNA damage and Cell death indices viz., MN, BN, KR and KL were observed to be significantly different between Experimental and Control groups. The DNA damage and cell death indices were found to be positively correlated with the exposure duration. The values were found to be statistically significant for MN (R 0.285) and BN (R 0.250). The PFT indices were computed to be not significantly different between the study groups except for %PRED FVC, FEV1/FVC ratio and FEF75. In Experimental study group, FVC, %PRED FVC and FEV1 were observed to be negatively correlated with the exposure duration (years). The plasma LPO was computed to be negatively correlated with %PRED FVC and %PRED FEV1. The findings of the current study reflected the indoor air quality of the photocopying centers in Lahore, Pakistan. Meanwhile, it highlighted the physical ailments and health issues that may be encountered in response to the emissions in the workplace. In order to avoid occupational health hazards, it is highly recommended to ensure the existence of healthy and ecofriendly workplace. The recommendations proposed in this study will potentially contribute towards public health awareness.