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Assessing Independence and Causality in Time Series

Thesis Info

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Author

Khan, Waqar Muhammad

Program

PhD

Institute

International Islamic University

City

Islamabad

Province

Islamabad.

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2018

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Econometrics

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/12603/1/Waqar%20Muhammad%20Khan_Econometrics_2018_IIU_PRR.docx

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676724518520

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Assessing independence of two series was, is and will be the most fundamental goal of econometric/economic practitioners. Most of the economic (especially macroeconomic) data are time dependent and economists are interested to validate different economic theories using sophisticated data analysis tools. At the end of 19th century Karl Pearson developed coefficient of correlation to assess correlation between two series, however Yule (1926) criticized the use of this coefficient for time series because of its autocorrelated behavior. Haugh (1976) was considered the first to propose a measure of correlation for time series. His idea of pre-whitening the series’ first and then apply correlation coefficient became very famous. Since then different versions of Haugh test were developed. The latest version was developed by Rehman and Malik (2014) that is also based on the same idea, however, the pre-whitening process became more refined and modified. For the last four decades, several tests of independence for time series are developed. Every test was developed on a particular property of underlying assumptions, and it works in its own domain and fails to work in other situations/domains. Researchers working in this area, presented few results to compare proposed test and one or two previously developed tests and concluded superiority of his/her proposed test. These studies include Hong (1996b), Duchesne and Roy (2003a) and so on. These comparisons are ad hoc in nature and no comprehensive study available in the literature to unfold the strengths and weaknesses of these tests. We organized a comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation study to compare tests of independence and selected a broad data generating process in a common framework. For this purpose, standard stringency criteria of Zaman (1996) has been used. In presented study, we have selected eleven available tests of independence for time series. To use stringency criteria, tests of independence should maintain a stable size and then based on its powers we can decide about the appropriateness of the test. For checking the size stability of the tests, we have used twenty-one different specifications of stochastic part in our data generating process, similarly two specifications of deterministic part have been used for each stochastic part case. So, we have tested size stability at total forty-two different combinations of data generating process. Simulated critical values were used, as past studies suggested that asymptotic critical values are not appropriate. All eleven tests of independence have their sizes around nominal size of 5%. Following the stable size, power analysis has been carried out for the same combinations of the data generating process and results suggests that Atiq test performs well in small sample size in almost all cases. PhamRoy test remains on second position in small samples but in many situations, it supersedes Atiq test in medium and large sample sizes. Haugh test remains at third place in almost all cases of the simulation study however the difference between the shortcomings of Haugh and PhamRoy test are very large. The remaining tests have not shown any considerable performance. Kim Lee, LiHui and Bouhaddioui tests considered worst in all sample sizes and with and without deterministic part cases. Another important contribution of this study is to compare three important techniques used to check the dependence of two or more-time series, these include cointegration, Granger causality and Tests of independence for time series. Using renowned Keynesian function of income and consumption, we applied these tests on real economic data of income and consumption of 100 countries from 1970 to 2014. The results depict that three selected tests of independence, i.e. Atiq, PhamRoy and Haugh tests have appreciable power gains and lower size distortions. Again, it is observed that Atiq test shows better empirical power gain with least size distortion. PhamRoy and Haugh tests also shows good performance, have good power gains and small size distortions. However, five cointegration tests which are considered relatively better by Khan (2017) and famous Granger causality test have shown very poor performance both in terms of real empirical size and power.
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76. Al-Insan/The Human Being

76. Al-Insan/The Human Being

I/We begin by the Blessed Name of Allah

The Immensely Merciful to all, The Infinitely Compassionate to everyone.

76:01
a. Was there not a time in the past when the human being was nothing even to be mentioned?!

76:02
a. Indeed, it is WE WHO created human being of a drop of the mingling of seminal and
ovarian fluid of male and female, so that WE may test him during his lifetime.
b. Then WE enabled him with hearing and seeing and intellect.

76:03
a. And WE guided him on to the Right Path
b. to see whether he be grateful by following the Right Path, or be ungrateful by straying off the Right Path.

76:04
a. WE have definitely prepared for the ungrateful - by being sinful - chains and shackles and
a blazing fire.

76:05
a. As for the grateful - by being righteous - they will drink from cups containing a mixture of camphor/musk -

76:06
a. from a spring at which the servants of Allah will drink,
b. - making it gush out abundantly.

76:07
a. The righteous are the ones who used to fulfill their vows, and
b. stand in awe of the Time the evil of which will be encompassing everyone.

76:08
a. And they - the righteous – used to give food
- to the needy, for the love of HIM,
- and also to the orphan,
- and to the captive/prisoner of war,

700 Surah 76 * Al-Insan

76:09
a. saying within themselves:
b. ‘We feed you only for the Face...

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يهدف هذا البحث إلى المساعدة على التعرف على كيفية تركيب الألفاظ العربية من حيث إتيان الحروف المجاورة في بنائها، وعند جمع أربعة أو أكثر في التلفظ بها. ويعين على تمييز الألفاظ الأعجمية التي لها ألفاظ عربية. واتبع الباحث المنهج الوصفي التحليلي في إجراء البحث. وفي ضوء ما تم تناوله تم التوصل إلى النتائج الآتية: 1- أن تصنيف الحروف الفرعية إلى مستحسن ومستقبح راجع عند القدماء لمبدأ الكثرة والقلة، فما كثر استعماله كان مستحسنا، وما قل استعماله وصف بالاستقباح. 2- تمثل الحروف الفرعية ألوانا من الآراء يعكس اختلاف القبائل العربية آدابها، وهي من صور الأداء المعروفة، مما جعل العلماء يقومون ببيان خواصها الصوتية. 3- جاءت هذه الحروف لإحداث نوع من التناسق والإنسجام في البنية الصوتية.

Digital Image Processing Using Soft Computing Techniques and Spline Representations

The work presented in this thesis is devoted to digital image processing techniques using soft computing techniques and spline representations. In particular, it emphasizes on the problems of image interpolation for finding the optimal digital images. In this thesis, four image interpolation schemes are developed which utilize one of the soft computing techniques, Genetic Algorithm (GA) and newly constructed rational Ball Cubic B-spline representation, the cubic trigonometric B-spline representation, the quadratic trigonometric B-spline representation along with the rational cubic B-spline representation to get the resulting interpolated images. Genetic algorithms are used to get the optimal values of shape parameters in the description of the proposed B-spline representations. The proposed schemes are demonstrated with both gray scale and color digital images. Numerical results are collected in terms of well-known image quality metrics including Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio (PSNR), Structure SIMilarity (SSIM), Multi-Scale Structure SIMilarity (MS-SSIM) and Feature SIMilarity (FSIM) indices to analyze and compare the proposed interpolation schemes with each other and existing ones.