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Asset Prices and Business Cycle Fluctuations: the Role of Money Revisited

Thesis Info

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Author

Shafiq, Hina

Program

PhD

Institute

Quaid-I-Azam University

City

Islamabad

Province

Islamabad.

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2019

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Economics

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/12155/1/Hina%20Shafiq%20Economics%202019%20qau%20isb%20prr.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676724524469

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Desirability of interest rate as monetary policy operating target due to apparent failure of the quantity theory of money in the backdrop of certain events has dominated macroeconomic research over the past three decades. However, recurrent financial crises, the failure of interest rate reductions to revive the economies from deflation, and moving to quantitative easing policies have cast doubt on the efficacy of this operating target. Therefore, there is a need to find a missing link whose absence from the models of money demand and velocity was responsible for the failure of money as an operating target of monetary policy. We hypothesize that such missing link is between money (or velocity) and asset prices and the later, once incorporated in the models of money demand and velocity, can provide answers to velocity decline phenomena, unstable money demand function, weak relationship between money and inflation and economic activity. We also hypothesize that asset prices can significantly improve the predictive power of money for inflation and real GDP.Within this context, this thesis sets five objectives in the area of monetary policy of Pakistan. The first objective of the thesis is to construct an asset price index for Pakistan using three types of assets prices such as stock prices, house prices and exchange rate for the time period 1980 to 2017. This is done by constructing house price index from the available data on house price index on zameen.com from 2011 to 2017 and the data on house rent index from 1980 to 2017 with two methods namely regression analysis after adjusting for structural breaks and vector autoregression (VAR) model. The second objective of the thesis is to analyze the role of asset prices in explaining velocity decline phenomenon and instability of money demand function using bivariate and multivariate regression analyses. The third objective of the thesis is to analyze the moderating role of assets prices for the effect of money/credit on real economic activity and goods prices in Pakistan. Using Granger causality and variance decomposition methods, we also compare interest rate and money stock in terms of their forecastability of goods prices and real GDP in order to know if money stock, or interest rate, is the better operating target of monetary policy when asset prices are included in the model. The moderating role of asset prices for inflation and economic activity is investigated using two methods, namely two step method and regression with interaction term (Choi, 2019; Katircioglu & Taspinar, 2017; Rajan & Zingales, 1998; Barron & Kenny, 1986); Barron and Kenny (1986). The fourth objective of the thesis is to estimate the role of credit in determining assets prices in Pakistan and to know if price of credit or quantity of credit is important in determining the real economic activity and price level in the economy. The methodology used to determine this relationship includes bivariate regression analysis along with vector error correction model. The fifth objective is to estimate the interrelationship among asset prices, goods prices, credit, interest rate, and economic activity. This objective deals with two important linkages among these variables: effect of asset prices on economic activity and goods prices; and the distributional consequences of changes in interest rate for asset market and goods market. Results indicate that VAR generates unbiased and efficient forecasts of house prices. The main result of the thesis is that asset prices significantly explain fluctuations in velocity in Pakistan and this is true for both velocity decline as well as rise. The effect of asset prices on money demand in Pakistan is also found significant (and positive). In case of individual asset prices, house prices and share prices have a positive relationship with the demand for money, while the coefficient of exchange rate is negative. Moreover, in the model without asset prices, the predictive power of money is weak but it significantly increases when asset prices are included in the model while interest rate remains poor predictor of economic activity in Pakistan no matter asset prices are included or not. The moderating role of asset prices for the effect of money on economic activity and goods prices indicate that higher is the value of asset prices, higher would be the effect of private sector credit/money on real economic activity, and lower would be the effect on GDP deflator. Moreover, credit positively affects the overall asset price index as well as the individual asset prices and the magnitude of effect is more on share prices than on housing prices and exchange rate. We also find that real GDP negatively responds to asset prices because resources are diverted towards the assets market in order to invest in assets. Moreover, private sector credit positively responds to asset prices, while economic activity, goods prices and private sector credit negatively respond to interest rate which is in conformity with the standard theory. However, response of asset prices to interest rate remains positive and increased cost of borrowing diverts private sector credit towards assets.
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مولانا عبدالرزاق ملیح آبادی

مولانا عبدالرزاق ملیح آبادی
افسوس ہے۲۴/جون کو صبح کے وقت بمبئی میں مولانا عبدالرزاق ملیح آبادی کا۶۵برس کی عمر میں انتقال ہوگیا، نعش بمبئی سے ملیح آباد لائی گئی اور بروز جمعہ ۲۶/جون کوسپرد خاک کردی گئی۔
مرحوم اردو اورعربی دونوں زبانوں کے نامور ادیب، صحافی اورانشاء پرداز تھے۔عربی کی تعلیم مصر میں پائی تھی اورسید رشید رضا مرحوم جواپنے عہد کے اکابر علماء اورمحققین اورمصنفین میں سے تھے ان کے تلمیذ رشید تھے، اس لیے مرحوم عربی زبان بالکل مادری زبان کی طرح بولتے اورلکھتے تھے۔ مصر سے واپس آکر کلکتہ سے عربی کاایک جریدہ’’الجامعہ‘‘کے نام سے نکالا جو عربی کے اساتذہ اورطلباء میں بڑا مقبول ہوالیکن یہاں مولانا ابوالکلام کے دامان دولت سے وابستہ ہونے کے بعد انھوں نے اردواخبار نویسی کواپنا مستقل نصب العین زندگی بنا لیا اور بڑی محنت کاوش اورمشق ومزاولت کے بعد اس میں بھی اپنا خاص ایک ایسا اسلوب پیدا کیا کہ اردو زبان کے بھی صاحب طرزادیب بن گئے۔ اُن کی تحریر صاف سپاٹ،بہت سلیس وعام فہم مگرساتھ ہی ولولہ انگیز اور پُرجوش ہوتی تھی۔اس سلسلہ میں وہ اوّلاً ’الہلال‘ اور’البلاغ‘ کی ادارت میں مولانا ابوالکلام کے رفیق رہے اور پھر کلکتہ سے ہی متعدد اخبار خوداپنے نکالے، تقسیم کے بعدا پنا اخبار روزانہ ’آزاد ہند‘ اپنے لایق فرزند احمد سعید صاحب ملیح آبادی کے حوالہ کرکے دہلی چلے گئے اور انڈین کونسل فارکلچرل ریلیشنزکے سہ ماہی عربی مجلہ ’ثقافۃ الہند‘ کوبڑی قابلیت سے ایڈٹ کرتے رہے۔ اس کے علاوہ آل انڈیا ریڈیو اسٹیشن دہلی کے عربی پروگرام کے بھی ڈائریکٹر رہے۔ اخبارات و رسائل کی اڈیٹری کے باوجودتصنیف وتالیف اورترجمہ کا مشغلہ بھی رکھتے تھے چنانچہ متعدد کتابیں ترجمہ کیں اور کئی کتابیں تالیف کیں جن میں آخری ضخیم کتاب وہ ہے جومولاناابوالکلام آزاد پرہے اورغیر مطبوعہ ہے۔
ذاتی اخلاق واوصاف کے اعتبار سے مرحوم بڑے باوضع، بامروت،...

الحياة الاقتصادية بمنطقتي الساقية الحمراء ووادي الذهب

تأتي الدراسة بهدف تقديم مقاربة علمية حول أبرز مظاهر الحياة الاقتصادية التي شهدتها منطقتي الساقية الحمراء ووادي الذهب الواقعة ضمن مجال الجنوب المغربي، حيث يتميز هذا المجال بغنى متنوع شمل مختلف المناشط الاقتصادية على الرغم من قساوة الظروف الطبيعية التي تعرفها دواخل صحراء جنوب المغرب، الأمر الذي حفزنا إلى البحث العلمي الدقيق حول بعض مظاهر هذه الثروات، مسلطين الضوء على موضوع الحياة الاقتصادية بمنطقتي الساقية الحمراء ووادي الذهب، وذلك سعيا منا لمواصلة خدمة البحث العلمي والأكاديمي حول هذا المجال.

Kinetic Study and Reactor Simulation of Methycyclohexane Dehydrogenation Reaction for a Mobile Power Plant

Fossil fuels are a major contributor to the today’s world energy demand as well as greenhouse gases causing global warming. The idea to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels for a green future needs a stepwise transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources. Among the various renewable sources hydrogen is probably the most promising alternative due to its availability, high heating value per unit weight, and zero emissions. The only challenge associated with hydrogen is its safe and feasible storage. The methylcyclohexane-toluene-hydrogen (MTH) system is the one that is considered safe and economical option for hydrogen production, storage and transportation, and utilization. The dehydrogenation reaction of the MTH system is highly endothermic and requires considerable amount of heat energy at a fast rate to have high equilibrium conversions. The successful utilization of hydrogen economy based on the MTH system therefore requires a highly active, selective, and stable dehydrogenation catalyst with its associated reaction kinetics. An intensified dehydrogenation reactor design that supplies high rates of heat transfer to the catalyst bed is also desired. A comprehensive review of the literature regarding kinetics of the methylcyclohexane (MCH) dehydrogenation over Pt containing catalysts has revealed that there is no consensus among the researchers on describing the reaction mechanism, rate-determining step, and inhibition offered by a product. Different researchers have suggested different reaction chemistry and developed different kinetic rate equation. There is hardly a study on the design and simulation of an intensified dehydrogenation reactor that is capable of being used on commercial scale applications. In the present study, an attempt is made to address the discrepancies in the kinetics of the MCH dehydrogenation that exist in the literature. The experimental data of 5 different Pt containing catalysts over a wide range of operating conditions is used to conduct a detailed kinetic study of the dehydrogenation reaction. Various kinetic models are developed based on the power law, Langmuir-Hinshelwood-Hougen-Watson (LHHW), and Horiuti-Polanyi reaction mechanism. The developed kinetic model equations are analyzed both kinetically and statistically and the best fitted kinetic model for each of the catalysts is worked out. The kinetic model based on single-site LHHW kinetics where loss of first hydrogen is the rate limiting step is found appropriate in representing the data of all the catalysts. This leads to report a unified kinetic model for the methylcyclohexane dehydrogenation reaction over any Pt containing catalyst. In addition to that, a new reaction mechanism called associative adsorption of methylcyclohexane is proposed and a kinetic model equation developed based on this mechanism is found successful in representing the relevant experimental data. A 2.0 MW power plant, working on the methylcyclohexane dehydrogenation reaction to yield hydrogen gas as fuel for the power production, is proposed and simulated in Aspen Hysys. The operating conditions such as stream flowrates, temperatures, pressures, and thermal efficiency are worked out. It is found that 17.4148 kmol/h methylcyclohexane are required to produce 2.0 MW net power output. Also, it is found that there is enough energy in the exhaust gases of the turbine that can carry out the dehydrogenation reaction. Using the best-fit kinetic model and the simulation data obtained for 2.0 MW power plant, a novel reactor-heat exchanger design is mathematically modeled and simulated. The proposed reactor configuration is found highly appropriate in carrying out the dehydrogenation reaction.