Climate change is posing stress on water resources, food security, population, environment and economy of the southern Punjab. Understanding of frequency, severity, damages and adaptation costs of climate extremes of southern Punjab is crucial to deal with their aftermath. Evaluation of PRECIS RCM modelled data under IPCC scenarios in southern Punjab reveals that monthly mean temperature is 30°C under A2 scenario, 2.4°C higher than A1B which is 27.6°C in defined time lapses. Monthly mean precipitation under A2 scenario ranges from 12-15 mm and for A1B scenario it ranges from 15-19 mm. Drought years under moderately (-1 to 1.49) and severely dry (-1.5 to -1.9) conditions obtained from standardized precipitation index SPI-12 calculations of analysis period (1960-2014) are in well agreement with observed drought years in southern Punjab, which validates the accuracy and applicability of SPI tool in monitoring drought conditions. Projected SPI-12 for analysis period of 2010-2098 shows return of moderately and severe dry conditions after every 4 to 6 years. Time periods of 2017-2022, 2049-2054 and 2088-2092 are observing sever dry conditions under both scenarios. Generalized extreme values (GEVs) distribution based on observed climate data shows that occurrence of climate extreme event is a dynamic process and in agreement with observed climate anomalies. GEVs distribution based on projected climate data shows that climate extreme events will occur at different frequency and intensity under IPCC A2 and A1B scenarios. Frequency modelling of floods and droughts via Poisson distribution shows increasing trend in upcoming decades posing serious impacts to all sectors. Cumulative loss projected for frequent floods using loss distribution approach based on Monte Carlo simulation without adaptation will be in the range of USD 66.8-79.3 billion in time lapse of 40 years from 2010 base case. Drought damage function @ 18% for A2 scenario and @ 13.5% for A1B scenario is calculated and drought losses on agriculture and livestock sectors are modelled. Cumulative loss projected for frequent droughts without adaptation under A2 scenario will be in the range of USD 7.5-8.5 billion while under A1B scenario it will be in the range of USD 3.5-4.2 billion for time lapse of 60 years from 1998-2002 base case. Severity analysis of extreme events shows that situation get worse if adaptations are not only included in the policy but also in the integrated development framework with required allocation of funds. Integrated climate change risk assessment is carried out using assessed likelihood approach for defined Mean, Hot & Dry, Central and Warm & Wet climate models over selected time slices and adaptation plans. Climate models are based on the 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles of Providing Regional Climate Impact Studies (PRECIS) RCM projections of temperature and precipitation under IPCC A2 and A1B scenarios. Four time slices 2015, 2035, 2065 and 2085 are selected to assess the temporal climate change risk and to evaluate the performance of selected adaptations to reduce climate threats over considered assets. Results are presented in terms of risk index and risk reduction units (RRUs). In first half of the 21st century, climate change risk will continue to increase from current level and is high (>10) in most of the selected time slices. Maximum ensembles of climate models, time slices and adaptation plans observe moderate (37-40 RRUs) and high (40-55 RRUs) risk class. Cumulative risk is calculated through integration of sectoral sensitivity i.e. population density, land use, food security and multi-dimensional poverty, to climate change risk class using analytical hierarchy process and overlaying in GIS environment. About 90% and 83 % area of southern Punjab is falling in high cumulative risk. About 13 % area, comprising Muzaffur Garh and Rajanpur district is under very high cumulative risk. Water induced adaptations like development of water resources, dam and flood control protection, temporary flood barriers and water resource acquisition are the preferred and suitable adaptations as these observed >100 RRUs for most of the ensembles. Assessing baseline vulnerability and sectoral sensitivity to climate stimuli are the hot spots requiring priority attention and firm decision making by disaster management authorities and communities residing in southern Punjab. Land use change analysis from year 2000 to 2010 over southern Punjab indicate that agriculture area is encroaching rangelands, bare soil is increasing, forest cover is declining, rangelands are depleting and urbanization is at faster pace in the area. This research highlights the result of frequency modelling, sensitivity analysis, severity modelling, cost benefit analysis, benefits of the adaptation options (mean and worst case) for floods and droughts in southern Punjab. This research suggests integrated climate change and cumulative risk assessment methods to quantify and classify sectoral climate change risks. Additionally the research highlights the role of integrated extreme events risk assessment methodology in performing the vulnerability assessments and to support the adaptation decisions. As part of adaptation assessment, GoP/GoPb projects and sectoral adaptations like development of water resources, temporary flood barriers, extreme precipitation events analysis, dam and flood control inspection, flood resistant housing, irrigation and flood management, adaptations of agriculture, livestock, public health, transportation are investigated, appraised and characterized against floods and droughts to build climate change resilience in southern Punjab.
تنقید کے میدان میں بھی مصنف مذکور نے اپنا لوہا منوایا اور ایک کتاب لکھی جس کا نام ’’ہیئت شعر‘‘ہے۔یہ کتاب اقبال کی جمالیاتی ساخت اور ان کی سوچ کے اعتبارسے فکری نا م پر بحث کی کتاب ہے۔2016ء میں یہ کتاب اسوہ کالج اسلام آباد سے چھپی اس کتاب کے 224 صفحات ہیں اور اسے 9 حصوں میں تقسیم کیا گیاہے۔ اقبال کے فن پر یہ کتاب نہایت اہمیت کی حامل ہے۔اس کتاب کے بارے میں ناصر عباس نیر لکھتے ہیں کہ:
’’ایک سطح پر ان کی تنقید ،اس تخلیقی طریق کار کی وضاحت محسوس ہوتی ہے۔جسے ان کی نظم اور فکشن میں برتا گیا ہے،دوسری سطح پر اقبال کی شاعری کا فنی مطالعہ ایک نئی سطح پر کرتی ہے اور اقبال کی شاعری کو آئیڈیالوجیائی بیانیوں سے آزاد کراتی محسوس ہوتی ہے۔ تیسری سطح پر جدید شاعری کی تحسین و تفہیم کا پیمانہ مہیا کرتی ہے۔ ‘‘(18)
تنقید کے میدان میں بھی مصنف کا پہلا قدم کامیاب رہا اور ان کی کاوش کو سراہا گیا۔اس کتاب میں انہوں نے اقبال کی جمالیاتی ساخت اور ان کی شاعری کا ان کی سوچ کے اعتبار سے فکری جائزہ پیش کیا ہے۔انہوں نے ایک نئی سطح پراقبال کی شاعری کا جائزہ پیش کرکے اسے قابل تحسین کے پیمانہ سے متعارف کروایا ہے۔یقیناً یہ ناطق کے فن کی ایک عمدہ کاوش ہے۔
This paper aims at highlighting the perspective of Islam regarding prisoners’ dealing. In the light of Quranic verses and examples from the life of Muhammad (PBUH), the last messenger of Allah and his companions, it has been shown that some 14 centuries back, although there were no formal settings to captivate the inmates, yet the prisoners in individual custody or incarcerated somewhere else such as Mosques, had full rights in terms of inborn dignity, humane treatments, fair justice, practicing religion etc. They were fully protected from the torture at the hands of occupying powers or individuals. Therefore, majority of them embraced Islam within custody and become firm believers before they were released. It is therefore, recommended that any prisoners’ reform strategy in the modern Era to be successful must take into consideration the glorious principles of Islam derived from Quran, authentic Hadith and the live examples of Muhammad (PBUH) and his companion.
Experiments were conducted in order to evaluate the effect of effluent irrigation on heavy metals accumulation in soil and soil microbial properties. The study comprised of three parts, In the first experiment twenty five soil samples each at depths of 0-15 cm and 15-30 cm were collected from Islamabad, Adiala, Taxilla and Wah factory areas and analyzed for physiochemical properties, AB-DTPA extractable and total heavy metals and microbial parameters like soil microbial biomass C, microbial biomass N, soil respiration and activities of enzymes such as dehydrogenase and alkaline phosphatase. Effluent samples from these areas were also collected and analyzed for heavy metals contents and other water quality parameters. The results of effluent analysis revealed that EC, total dissolved solids (TDS) and heavy metals such as Cr, Ni, Cd, Cu, and Fe were above permissible limits while Zn and Pb were within the permissible range. In soil samples, AB-DTPA extractable Fe, Cu and total Cu contents were markedly higher than the critical limits at all the sites. AB-DTPA extractable and total Pb contents were within permissible limits. AB-DTPA extractable Zn was high at 24 sites whereas total Zn was higher than the critical limits at two sites only. Soil pH, organic C, CEC, clay and CaCO 3 contents showed negative but weak correlations with the AB-DTPA extractable metals in soil at both soil depths, while the soil EC had positive. There were negative correlations of total and AB-DTPA extractable heavy metals in soils with soil microbial biomass C, microbial biomass N and the activities of dehydrogenase and alkaline phosphatase, but a positive relationship with soil respiration. Total toxic heavy metals had shown strong correlations with microbial activity parameters. Inthe second experiment, a laboratory incubation experiment was carried out in order to evaluate decomposition pattern of different organic amendments like pea straw and maize straw in soils with variable metal contents, designated as low-, medium- and high- metal soils. Each soil (600 g oven dry equivalent) was incubated at 25 o C and 50 % water holding capacity for 56 days with the following treatments: 1) Control, 2) pea straw 1 %, 3) maize straw 1 %, with four replications. Soil samples were collected at 0, 7, 14, 28, 42 and 56 days after incubation for the measurement of microbial biomass C, microbial biomass N, dehydrogenase, alkaline phosphatase and N mineralization. Soil respiration was measured 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10 and 14 days after incubation and thereafter weekly. Results showed a significant decrease in microbial biomass C, biomass N and N mineralization with increasing metal load in soil. Soil respiration rate was in the order: high metal soil > medium metal soil > low metals soil. Significant increases in microbial biomass C, biomass N, NO 3 -N, NH 4 -N and enzymes activities (Dehydrogenase and alkaline phosphatase) were noted with the addition of organic amendment (pea and maize straw) as compared to control in all three soils but the magnitude of increase was maximum in low metal treatment. In the third part of study, a greenhouse experiment was carried out to elucidate the effects of organic amendments on soil microbial parameters, heavy metals bioavailability and the growth of maize plants in two soils with variable metal contents. The treatments applied were 1) control, 2) pea straw 1 %, and 3) maize straw 1 % with 4 replications. Soil samples were collected at the time of pot filling and at sowing, 14, 28 & 56 days after sowing (DAS) of maize and analyzed for soil microbial biomass C, microbial biomass N, dehydrogenase, alkaline phosphatase, NO 3 -N and NH 4 -N. Plant samples were harvested at 56 DAS and data regardingplant height, fresh & dry weight were recorded. Soil and plant samples at harvest were also analyzed for N, P, K, Ca, Mg, Na, and heavy metals contents. Microbial parameters were markedly lower in high metal than in low metal soils. Organic amendments significantly increased all microbial parameters, soil NO 3 -N and NH 4 -N in both the soils. Plant growth in low metal soil was significantly higher than the high metal soil. A significant increase in microbial parameters was noticed with pea straw addition as compared to maize straw and control treatments. Addition of pea straw and maize straw significantly reduced AB -DTPA extractable (Cu, Zn, Fe, Mn, Pb, Cd, Cr & Ni) metals in the soils and their uptake by maize plants. Significant reduction in plant metal uptake was noticed with organic amendments, specifically by maize straw treatment. Overall, in study 2 and study 3, the interaction effects of organic amendments with soils depicted a significantly higher microbial activity parameters in soils amended with pea straw than the maize straw. On the basis of this study the main conclusions drawn are, 1) most of the soils in effluent irrigated field of Rawalpindi/ Islamabad areas possess heavy metals above critical limits 2) microbial biomass and activity parameters in these soils showed a decline with increasing concentrations of total heavy metal in soil and 3) addition of organic amendments improved microbial parameters in metal polluted soils but the magnitude of improvements decreased with increasing heavy metal load of the soil. Thus, the application of organic amendments such as pea and maize straw in effluent irrigated areas is recommended for reducing metal toxicity to microbes, and plants. A close monitoring of the soil and crops in agricultural field irrigated withuntreated wastewater is required on regular basis in order to prevent the degradation of soil and entry of heavy metals into food chain.