Being able to predict bankruptcy can be very valuable for debtors, creditors, shareholders and other stakeholders. Historically, different models that predict corporate bankruptcy have been constructed. Three bankruptcy predicting models are used in this thesis; the models of Altman (1968), Ohlson (1980) and Shumway (2001). The relatively old original models are applied to U.S. listed firms. It became clear that when the original models are applied to a more recent sample of 1999-2013, the predictive power of the models is very low, and bankruptcy is over predicted. In order to be able to use the relatively old models in more recent periods, the results show that the models have to be re-estimated. The original models with the original variables are used, only the coefficients and the interpretation of the outcome of the models change by downside risk. The downside risk models show that especially variables of short term liquidity are more important now a day in predicting bankruptcy than in the original models. After reestimated the models, the accuracy rates of all models increased. Especially applying the downside risk models of Altman (1968) and Ohlson (1980) to the sample of 1999- 2013 result in high percentages of correctly classified observations and high areas under Receiver Operating Curves. The research was carried out with an aim to contribute to the discussion regarding business failure prediction of Pakistani Firms using Altman (1968) Z-Score, Ohlson (1980) O-Score and Shumway (2001) hazard model, its applicability and validity in Pakistani scenario so that to provide an addition into the literature of drivers of the prediction of the business failure in Pakistan. The research was carried on three research questions; can Altman (1968), Ohlson (1980) and Shumway(2001) model correctly forecast the bankruptcy problems in Pakistani environment, if not, can only changes in coefficients of Altman(1968) Ohlson (1980) and Shumway (2001)model’s ratios are sufficient for this purpose, is there is a need of new bankruptcy model for Pakistani firms and if so which of the financial ratios and relationships between financial ratios are useful in forecasting Pakistani business financial failure. This study used data of Pakistani publicly listed companies for the period of January 1999-December 2013 to test the accuracy of Altman’s Z-score, O-score a Hazard model in predicting failure of Pakistani’s companies and for model development. Multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), Logit and Probit are chosen as the suitable statistical technique. Multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), Logit and Probit is a statistical technique that can be employed to classify firms into one or more mutually exclusive categories such as bankrupt and non-bankrupt firms. MDA approach has been the most popular technique for bankruptcy studies as shown in literature. Results show that Altman(1968) model does fairly well for predicting the bankruptcy of a firm, with accuracy ranging from 94.6% to 83.9% but the model tends to misclassify a non-failed firm in to the failed group with error ranging from 61.1% to 91.1%.The re-estimated model does fairly well for predicting the delisting of a firm, with accuracy more than 80% as well as to predict with 100% accuracy for successful firms into the stable group with no error in whole yearly sample which is a high achievement of this model. Proposed model predict failure with overall 80%accuracy. Study findings suggest that results of Altman (1968), OhlsonO-Score and Shumway (2001) hazard model to estimate financial distress of sample firms should be interpreted cautiously in Pakistan, due to its low predication in successful companies. The re-estimated and proposed models give better results.
جناب مولانا انظر شاہ کشمیریؒ افسوس کہ مولانا انظر شاہ کشمیری قریب بیاسی سال کی عمر میں ۲۶؍ اپریل ۲۰۰۸ء کو اس دنیائے فانی سے رخصت ہوگئے، اناﷲ وانا الیہ راجعون، دارالمصنفین میں یہ خبر افسوس کے ساتھ سنی گئی اور یہ احساس عام رہا کہ ملت علوم اسلامیہ کے ایک نامور ترجمان اور دارالعلوم دیوبند کی عظمت کے نشان اور سلف صالحین کی روایتوں کے پاسبان سے محروم ہوگئی۔ وہ دین و دانش کی دنیا کے مہر انور، مولانا سید انور شاہ کشمیریؒ کے فرزند اصغر تھے، مولانا سید سلیمان ندوی نے شاہ کشمیریؒ کی وفات پر لکھا تھا کہ ’’چین سے لے کر روم تک ان کے فیضان کا سیلاب موجیں لیتا رہا‘‘ شاہ کشمیریؒ کے اوصاف میں کہا گیا کہ وہ معلومات کے دریا، حافظہ کے بادشاہ اور وسعت علمی کی نادر مثال تھے، الولد سرلابیہ اگر حق ہے تو مولانا انظر شاہ کشمیری کے بارے میں بھی ان ہی خوبیوں کا اعادہ کیا جاسکتا ہے، انہوں نے مولانا شبیر احمد عثمانی، مولانا حسین احمد مدنی، مولانا اعزاز علی اور مولانا ابراہیم بلیاوی جیسے ارباب علم و فضل سے اکتساب فیض کیا، خانہ انور اور دارالعلوم دیوبند کے خمیر سے جس شخصیت کی تشکیل کی توقع کی جاسکتی ہے وہ ان کی شکل میں پوری ہوئی، قریب نصف صدی تک حدیث شریف کے درس و تدریس کی مبارک خدمت ان کے نصیب میں آئی اور بڑی بات یہ ہے کہ قلم سے بھی ان کا رشتہ استوار رہا، ان کی کتابوں میں ’’فیض البخاری‘‘ اور ’’تراجم الابواب‘‘ کے نام ملتے ہیں، اس کے علاوہ ان کی قلمی میراث میں ’’تفسیر ابن کثیر، مدارک، جلالین‘‘ وغیرہ کے ترجمے بھی ہیں، ان کے ذہن و فکر اور مطالعہ کی وسعت اور تنوع کا اندازہ اسی سے کیا جاسکتا ہے کہ درس و تدریس، تصنیف و...
The set of formal legal institutions that collectively constitute a “government”or a “state” form the basis of what we call “Political System”. Democracy, one of the institutions withiun the present day political scenario, is a system of processing conflicts in which the outcomes depend on what the opinion of majority of the participants is. In such a process, no single force or group can control what occurs unless they can prove their majority. The primary problem with the world politics in today’s world is not much different to what it has been over the centuries - it is controlled by people who are generally incapable of envisioning a system of just government that could address the broader problems faced by humanity and that which could think beyond the immediate scene. Nothing about our world will change until we acknowledge this reality and that the quality of life depends on more than a mere establishment of rules by which to live and carry out commerce. It requires an understanding of the universal issues that are not yet considered as a part of the better human condition by most governments of our time. Politicians always have, focussed on the tangible issues of the physical social structure while being oblivious to the fact that such a framework can be no more useful in improving the human condition than is the altruistic value of the foundation on which it is built. In this paper, the existing democratic political system has been thoroughly analyzed in accordance with the seerah of our beloved messengerﷺ.
The riparian zone refers to biotic communities on the banks of rivers, streams and lakes. Riparian zones are an unusually diverse mosaic of landforms, communities and environments within the larger landscape and they serve as a framework for understanding the organization, diversity and dynamics of the communities associated with fluvial ecosystems. A variety of natural disturbances create a spatial and temporal environmental mosaic with few parallels in other systems. Pakistan riparian zone mostly belongs to Sindh and Punjab provinces and prone to varieties of climatical problems and anthropogenic activities. The research was conducted to estimate and compare the effects of 2010 floods on the structure and composition of riverine floral diversity in low riparian zone of River Indus. To estimate the impact, data was collected from two sites along River Indus in low riparian zone i.e. Keti Shah Forest (Sukkur, Sindh province) and Taunsa Wildlife Sanctuary (Muzaffargarh, Punjab province). The study evaluates the phytosociological parameters of floral diversity in low riparian zone of River Indus. The impact of 2010 floods on floral diversity was calculated using BioDiversity Professional Statistical Software. The results of the study shows that the Taunsa Wildlife Sanctuary is rich in floral diversity with total 30 species in pre-monsoon season and 20 species in post-monsoon season, in comparison to the Keti Shah Forest. In Keti Shah Forest 22 species found in pre-monsoon and 16 in post-monsoon season. Different biodiversity parameters (Shannon Index, Simpson’s Index, Margalef’s lndex, SHE analysis and cluster analysis) shows that pre-flooded vegetation was more rich with total 39 families in Taunsa Wildlife xxiii Sanctuary and 18 families in Keti Shah Forest. The edaphic parameters proved less fertility in post-monsoon season in comparison to pre-monsoon season. The outcome of this study revealed that floods and heavy rains have destructive effects on vegetation of the study area. These adverse effects eliminate 23 and 7 families from the Taunsa and Keti Shah Forest, respectively. The results concluded that in upstream areas about 60% plant families eliminated after 2010 floods, with 75% species lost. In comparison to downstream about 40% plant families eliminated due to floods, with 37% species lost. The more lost in plant biodiversity in upstream was due to high intensity of floods as compared to downstream. The outcome of this study benefits in future in forest management, planning, floral diversity conservation and in mitigating adverse effect of the floods in studied areas. In future, illicit cutting and conversion of forest area to agricultural land should be controlled by implementing the proper management plan of the forest area. Regeneration and replanting activities of the native species should be carried out on regular basis and species gene bank should be established to conserve the species which are growing well in the area. Planting woody plant species on the banks of the river helps in reducing the velocity of the flood water and serves as the barrier for the whole forest area by preventing it from adverse impacts of the regular floods.