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Dynamics of Social Expenditures, Poverty Reduction and Pro-Poor Growth in Pakistan

Thesis Info

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Author

Zaman, Khalid

Program

PhD

Institute

Preston University

City

Kohat

Province

KPK

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2013

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Economics

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/2707/1/2684S.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676724638870

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Pro-poor economic policies aim to increase the economic returns for the poor segments of the society. The objective of this research is multifold i.e., First, to examine the relationship between growth, inequality and poverty in the context of rural, urban and at national level, secondly, to look at the impact of intra-sectoral gains/losses and inter-sectoral shifts in population on aggregate changes in poverty in Pakistan. Thirdly is, to investigates the interrelation between social expenditures (i.e., human development, rural development, safety nets and community services), inequality, and poverty in Pakistan over a period of 1964-2011, and fourth is, to observe how economic growth may affect to the poors in the future (inter-temporal link) in Pakistan over the next 25 years period. The regression model encompasses the impact of economic growth and inequality on poverty reflects that one percent increase in income reduces poverty around 0.276 percent in national weighted regression, if distribution remains constant. An increase in Gini coefficient tends to increase poverty around 1.721 percent, if income remains constant. Subsequently, in urban and rural regions, it creates proportionally more poor households in the urban areas than in the rural areas. This study measures pro-poor growth index that shows gains and losses of growth rates due to changes in consumption. The gains imply pro-poor growth, while the losses imply anti-poor growth. Total growth spells in this study are 180 for overall Pakistan. The results conclude that out of 180 growth spells, 63 growth spells had negative growth rates and 117 spells had positive growth rates. Thus, growth processes have not generally been favorable to the poor. VThe result show that both the urban and rural sectors contributed to the increase in aggregate poverty, though the “interaction effect” and the “population shift effect” alleviated poverty, and the overall impact was negligible. The result point out that as compared to the non-poor, the poor overall benefited less from the revitalization of agricultural process; among the poor people the ultra-poor received proportionally more benefits. This study extends the concept of pro-poor growth measure that satisfies the monotonicity criterion relative with social expenditures. This measure indicates as ‘poverty equivalent social expenditure rate’, which shows how the benefits of these expenditures are distributed to the poor and the non-poor. The results found that the social expenditures in Pakistan are not intrinsically pro poor. Forecasting poverty in future is mostly a matter of forecasting economic growth. The generalized version of variance decomposition and impulse response analysis has operated in this study to test the inter-temporal causality among poverty. The result of variance decomposition analysis shows that household counts have the highest impact on average income i.e., 93.2 percent in Pakistan, 90.5 percent in urban and 82.3 percent in rural areas approximately. Impulse response analysis demonstrates that growth, poverty measures and income inequality are so strongly knitted to one another that any positive shock to any one of them would be beneficial on the one hand and may be harmful on the other hand. The vicious cycle of poverty can only be scratched by giving consistent positive shocks to growth and negative shocks to income inequality.
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مل گئی یک مشت ان کو راحتِ دنیا و دیں


مل گئی یک مُشت اُن کو راحتِ دنیا و دیں
جن کی قسمت میں مدینے کی فضائیں ہو گئیں

نورِ ’’اقرا‘‘ کی ضیائیں ساتھ ساتھ آنے لگیں
جلوتوں میں آگئے جب غار کے خلوت نشیںؐ

صبحِ طیبہ میں بسی ایمان کی تابندگی
شامِ طیبہ میں نہاں ہے راحتِ قلبِ حزیں

بندگانِ ربِّ کعبہ کی یہی ہے بندگی
جس جگہ پہ نقشِ پائے مصطفی ہو خم جبیں

آسمانِ معرفت کی اُس کو رفعت مل گئی
مل گئی جس شخص کو طیبہ میں بس دو گز زمیں

بربطِ تخلیق کی آوازِ ہست و بود میں
خلقتِ نورِ محمدﷺ ہے صدائے اوّلیں

آپؐ کے دم سے جہانِ آب و گل میں تازگی
چہرئہ ارض و سما ہے آپؐ کے دم سے حسیں

خوبیٔ رفتار سے آگے مقامِ مصطفیؐ
وسعتِ پرواز کی حد سدرہ سے آگے کہیں

والہانہ اہلِ الفت کی نگاہوں نے کہا
چودھویں کے چاند سے ہے آپؐ کا چہرہ حسیں

مدحتِ ممدوحِ ربؐ کی وسعتوں کے سامنے
لفظ کے دامن میں تنگی کے سوا کچھ بھی نہیں

ہیں امامِ انبیاؐ ، اقصیٰ کی شب ، بدرالدجیٰ
مقتدی ہے ماہِ کنعاںؑ کی ادائے دل نشیں

شافعِ محشرؐ کے ابرو کا اشارا ہو گیا
مل گئی اُنؐ کی شفاعت سے ہمیں خلدِ بریں

کس طرح اُن کو ہو عرفانِؔ خدائے لم یزل
جن کو محبوبِ خداؐ کی ذات سے اُلفت نہیں

Updike’s Use of the Qur’anic Verses in Terrorist

This article exposes Updike’s use of the Qur’anic verses in his novel Terrorist. Apparently, the writer wants to investigate a Muslim terrorist’s mind, which causes him to launch deadly attacks against the American people. However, the results of Updike’s investigation are problematic and subjective. Updike seems to be a new Orientalist who manipulates the Qur’anic scripture to assert his mastery, neutrality and intolerance of Islam for non-believers. It proves that his presentation of Islam is based on stereotyped myths and lies. The narrator claims that the protagonist “Ahmad”, under the guidance of his religious teacher Sheikh Ahmed, inspired by the irrational and suppressed tone of the Qur’an, commits a suicide attack at Lincoln Tunnel but in the end, he is persuaded by his Jewish- school- councilor to discard this idea. Conclusively, it sounds that Updike fails to detach himself from his characters and misuses the Qur’anic verses to defend his pre-supposed ideology against Islam.

Simulating the Effect of Different Irrigation Regimes on Autumn-Sown Maize Using Csm-Ceres-Maize Model

Drought is a basic reason of low grain yield in many field crops including maize (Zea mays L.). Identifying growth stages of any promising cultivar for irrigation scheduling under local climate and soil fertility can maximize yield. Potential soil moisture deficit (PSMD) approach (a difference between potential evapotranspiration and rainfall plus irrigation) describes the response of canopy growth to water shortage. To examine the productivity of different autumn-sown maize hybrids under irrigation scheduling at different growth stages and PSMD levels, a field study was conducted with split plot arrangement at the Agronomic Research Area, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad (Pakistan) during 2009 and 2010. The treatments consisted of two maize hybrids (Monsanto-919 and Pioneer-30Y87) and seven irrigation levels: I 1 = no irrigation (control), I 2 = 4 irrigations, I 3 = 6 irrigations, I 4 = 8 irrigations, I 5 = 10 irrigations (1 st irrigation starting at 6 leaf stage, followed by subsequent irrigations at an interval of 4 leaf stages in all irrigation treatments and addition of two reproductive stages in I 3 , I 4 and I 5 successively), I 6 = irrigation at 25 mm PSMD and I 7 = irrigation at 50 mm PSMD. The results showed that Pioneer-30Y87 produced more plant height but the two hybrids did not differ significantly in other growth and yield parameters. Among all irrigation treatments, 6 and 8 irrigation treatments were statistically at par with treatments of 10 irrigations and irrigation at 25 mm PSMD in radiation use efficiency, water use efficiency, 500-grain weight, grain yield and TDM production. So more number of irrigations is not a criterion for getting maximum yield in all maize hybrids. PSMD can be used as a useful criterion for scheduling irrigation under irrigated conditions of Pakistan. CSM-CERES-Maize model was used to simulate the growth, development and yield of maize under different irrigation regimes. The correct definition of soil drained upper (SLL) and lower limits (SDUL) played vital role in simulation by the model during dry season of 2009 and wet season of 2010. During model calibration, simulated total dry matter, maturity yield and maximum LAI were within 10 % of the observed values. During model evaluation, there was generally satisfactory agreement between all observed and simulated values of the two hybrids. Mean-Gini Dominance (MGD) analysis confirmed the observed information through 30 years climate data analysis that I 3 and I 4 were the best irrigation levels. So CSM- CERES-Maize can be used to simulate maize growth and yield at different irrigation regimes under semi-arid conditions of Pakistan.