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Estimating the Optimal Monetary Policy Rule for Pakistan

Thesis Info

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Author

Saghir, Ghulam

Program

PhD

Institute

Pakistan Institute of Development Economics

City

Islamabad

Province

Islamabad

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2014

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Labor economics

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/handle/123456789/1399

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676724688770

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A near consensus in the contemporary monetary economics is that monetary policy can achieve its objectives more precisely if it is designed as a rule rather than discretion. Even a well intentioned discretionary monetary policy becomes time inconsistent while consistency is at the heart of rule based policy adopted by an autonomous and transparent central bank. In standard Macroeconomic Models a loss function, defined over output gap and deviation of inflation from its optimal value, is assigned to the central banker who has the autonomy to choose its operating target so that the loss to the society is minimum. Assuming behavioral equations of the private sector as constraint, the first order conditions are derived from loss minimization, which after manipulation give a policy reaction function that is made explicit in an instrument rule while it remains implicit in the targeting rules (Svensson 1997). Empirical literature brings to light the superiority of rule based policy in a variety of Macroeconomic Models and against a bunch of structural shocks that may hit the economy. The underlying thesis sets two objectives regarding monetary policy of Pakistan. The first objective is to estimate monetary policy reaction function. For this purpose, the Taylor type rules and McCallum rules are estimated using quarterly data on Pakistan economy over the period 1993 Q3 to 2010 Q2. Both types of rules have been modified by incorporating exchange rate management and interest rate smoothing as policy objectives. Moreover, we have found recursive estimates of the parameters to sort out policy inconsistency. We have also looked into the issue of nonlinearity of the monetary policy reaction function with regards to output gap and inflation rate assuming asymmetric preferences of monetary authority. The second objective is to estimate loss, defined as sum of variances of output gap and inflation rate, associated with different specifications iv of the rules, which is then compared with that found in the historical data. We find that monetary authority in Pakistan does not follow Taylor rule as coefficient of output gap is negative and statistically insignificant and the coefficient of inflation rate, though statistically significant, is far below the benchmark value suggested by Taylor (1993). State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is found to involve in exchange rate management and interest rate smoothing and this result is robust to different modifications in the Taylor rule. The parameters of output gap, inflation rate and differenced exchange rate, in the reaction function, are not stable over time and vary over the business cycle and across different inflationary regimes. The variation in the coefficient of output gap is found countercyclical while the coefficient of inflation rate follows the same pattern with respect to inflationary regimes. The coefficients of exchange rate and lagged interest rate remain almost stable. The threshold value of output gap is found 2.5% below which the response of interest rate to output gap fluctuations is positive but above which the response is insignificant. The threshold rate of inflation is found at 6% and coefficient of output gap is found positive only high inflationary regime while the coefficients of inflation rate and exchange rate are significant only in low inflationary regime. Monetary authority responds to currency depreciation more strongly when interest rate is low compared to that when it is high. Moreover, the response of interest rate to output gap is significant only if currency depreciation is below threshold (estimated at 0.68) while response to exchange rate is significant only if there is high speed of depreciation (above threshold). The results are robust to inclusion of fiscal deficit in the Taylor rule. In Pakistan, fiscal deficit negatively affects interest rate which is because of the borrowing of government from State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) for budgetary support. In a modified version of the Taylor rule interest rate is found to negatively respond to changes in growth rate of real GDP. Growth rate of monetary base negatively depends on the difference between nominal GDP growth rate and its average value indicating countercyclical response at the part of monetary authority. Moreover, growth rate of money exhibits strong inertia and is negatively related to currency depreciation. The coefficients in the McCallum rule too are not stable during the sample period. The coefficients of growth rate of nominal GDP and exchange rate are not stable over time, while the parameter capturing inertia is stable over the sample period. The response of monetary growth rate to nominal GDP growth rate and to exchange rate are significant only when nominal GDP is above its threshold value and/or when currency depreciates at higher rate. The simulation analysis confirms that policy consistency can improve welfare significantly and rule based policy, in general, is found superior to the one that has been observed during the sample period. Moreover, the original Taylor (1993) rule is found the best among all specifications and inclusion of exchange rate and lagged interest rate negatively affects welfare and the condition of zero lower bound on nominal interest rate is violated, in most of the cases, when interest rate smoothing is included as a policy objective. Interestingly, making monetary policy reaction function nonlinear does not add to the performance of the rule. The stochastic simulation also confirms that Taylor rule can perform well in a variety of shocks that may hit the economy. Finally, it is found that Taylor rule may perform well even if the fiscal deficit partially dilutes the stance of monetary policy but the performance of the rule is better in a model of monetary dominance.
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سیّدنا صدیق ِ اکبر رضی اللہ تعالیٰ عنہ کا عشقِ رسول

سیدنا صدیقؓ اکبر کا مقام ِعشق رسول ؐ
نحمدہ ونصلی علی رسولہ الکریم امّا بعد فاعوذ بااللہ من الشیطن الرجیم
بسم اللہ الرحمن الرحیم
لا تحزن ان اللہ معنا
معزز اسا تذہ کرام اور میرے ہم مکتب ساتھیو!آج مجھے جس عنوان پر لب کشائی کرنی ہے وہ ہے:’’سیدنا صدیق اکبر کا مقامِ عشق رسول‘‘
نبیؐ کا اور خدا کا مدح گو صدیقؓ اکبر ہے
نبیؐ صدیق اکبر کا، خدا صدیقؓ اکبر کا
لٹایا راہِ حق میں گھر کئی بار اس محبت سے
کہ لٹ لٹ کر حسنؔ گھر بن گیا صدیقؓ اکبر کا
صدرِذی وقار!
عقل سے ماورا ہو کر کسی کو چاہے کا نام عشق ہے۔ عشق محبت کی انتہا ء کو کہتے ہیں، جہاں محبت کی انتہا ہوتی ہے وہاں سے عشق کی ابتداء ہوتی ہے۔ کوئی کسی سے مالی منفعت کے حصول کے لیے عشق کرتا ہے، کسی کی محبت کی انتہا سیم وزرکے لیے ہوتی ہے، کسی کاعشق دنیاوی غرض و غایت کے لیے ہوتا ہے۔ کسی کے جسم و جان سے اُٹھنے والی محبت کی مہک جیسے ہی خواہش کی تکمیل ہوئی ، ختم ہوتی ہے۔
صدرِذی وقار!
عشق و محبت کا معیار ہر ایک کا اپنا ہی ہوتا ہے۔ شاگرد استاد سے جب عشق کرتا ہے تو اس کی حصول علم کے راستے میں آنے والی جملہ رکاوٹیں ختم ہو جاتی ہیں۔ اس کے دماغ کے آنگن میں علم وحکمت کے پھول کھلنا شروع ہوجاتے ہیں، اس کے گلستانِ علم و ادب میں بہار آجاتی ہے ، مرید جب اپنے پیر سے محبت کرتا ہے تو اس کے لیے سلوک کی منازل آسان ہوجاتی ہیں۔
معزز سامعین!
اسی دنیا و مافیہا میں ایک ایسی ہستی ہے جس نے اولاد سے محبت نہیں کی ، جس نے مال و زر سے محبت نہیں کی، جس نے دنیا کی دل لبھانے...

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Every Human being needs family system to live with dignity. There is joint family system, and separate family system in practice in Muslim Societies. Shah Waliullah gave concept of ideal family system. The ingredients of ideal family system of Shah Waliullah are Nikāḥ, Siblings, Property, Love and Society. People faced many problems for living respectfully, and born grave losses due to war. Shah Waliullah not only taught us religious teachings but also guided us how to make our socio- economic system strong as well as family system. In this article, his teachings and thoughts about family system have been discussed.

Moderating Role of Positive Religious Coping, Engagement Coping, and Perceived Availability of Social Support Among Chronically- Ill Patients

The present research was carried out to investigate the moderating role of positive religious coping, engagement coping, and perceived availability of social support in stress-distress relationship among chronically-ill patients (HIV/AIDS & cancer). This study also investigated the role of gender, locale, type of disease and stages of disease in the appraisal of stressors (poor physical well-being, disease-related discrimination & barriers to care), and different coping strategies (positive religious coping & engagement coping) as well as perceived availability of social support among chronically-ill patients. Present research comprised two separate studies, Study-I and Study-II. The Study-I was further conducted in two phases. Phase-I aimed at translation of the Physical Well-being Scale, Disease-related discrimination Scale, Barriers to Care Scale, Positive Religious Coping Scale, Engagement Coping Scale, and Interpersonal Support Evaluation List into Urdu language. Whereas, phase-II of the study-I aimed at investigating the psychometric properties of the translated instruments. The translated versions were administered to a sample of 90 chronically- ill patients, comprising HIV/AIDS (n = 35) and cancer (n = 55) patients. Convergent and discriminant validity of the instruments were addressed and the scales exhibited good internal consistency reliability. For study-II (main study) data were collected from 330 chronically-ill patients comprising 252 cancer patients and 78 HIV/AIDS patients. A total of 63% (n = 208) were symptomatic patients whereas, 37% (n = 122) were asymptomatic. Participants were administered Urdu version of the seven scales (Physical Well-being scale, Disease-related Discrimination, Barriers to Care scale, Positive Religious Coping Scale, Engagement Coping Scale, Perceived Availability of Social Support and Beck Depression Inventory). Multiple regression and hierarchical moderated regression analyses were used to test the hypothesized relationships. Poor physical well-being and disease-related discrimination have significant main effects on depression. All the three moderating variables (positive religious coping, engagement coping and perceived availability of social support) were found significantly related to the depression. Positive religious coping and engagement coping was found significantly moderating poor physical well-being and depression relationship as well as disease-related discrimination and depression relationship. Whereas, moderating role of perceived availability of social support was found for poor physical well-being and depression as well as barriers to care and depression. Finally, t-test were conducted to explain the differences on stress appraisal, perceived availability of social support and coping strategies with reference to gender, locale, type and stages of disease. Overall, male patients differed from female patients in the appraisal of poor physical well-being, disease-related discrimination and barriers to care, whereas female patients significantly differed from male patients in their use of coping strategies. Patients from rural areas were high in the perception of poor physical well-being and barriers to care as compared to urban patients. HIV/AIDS patients differed from cancer patients in their high use of coping strategies and high perception of availability of social support as compared to cancer patients. Symptomatic patients were high in the appraisal of poor physical well-being, barriers to care and positive religious coping. HIV/AIDS and cancer patients were further compared across disease stages and gender. Symptomatic HIV/AIDS patients were high on the appraisal of poor physical well being and barriers to care as compared to asymptomatic HIV/AIDS patients. However, symptomatic cancer patients differed from asymptomatic cancer patients in their high appraisal of poor physical well- being, barriers to care and their high use of positive religious coping. Male cancer patients were high on the appraisal of poor physical well-being, disease-related discrimination and barriers to care, whereas, female cancer patients were high on positive religious coping, engagement coping, and perceived availability of social support as compared to men cancer patients. Male HIV/AIDS patients differed from female HIV/AIDS patients in their high perception of availability of social support. Further research may test the role of negative religious coping and disengagement coping strategies among chronically-ill patients.