Search or add a thesis

Advanced Search (Beta)
Home > Exchange Rate Volatility in Developing Countries: Implications for Trade and Capital Flows in Pakistan

Exchange Rate Volatility in Developing Countries: Implications for Trade and Capital Flows in Pakistan

Thesis Info

Access Option

External Link

Author

Khan, Abdul Jalil

Program

PhD

Institute

Government College University

City

Lahore

Province

Punjab

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2011

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Labor economics

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/2227/1/2776S.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676724699423

Asian Research Index Whatsapp Chanel
Asian Research Index Whatsapp Chanel

Join our Whatsapp Channel to get regular updates.

Similar


An analysis to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility was performed in this study considering trade and capital flows within Pakistan`s trade partners perspectives. Two different sets of volatility variables were derived and compared by using two currencies as a base for the measurement of exchange rates, viz. US dollar and Pak-rupee, for this purpose. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model based approach was considered appropriate to calculate and generate the variance series as a proxy of volatility. Some other important specifications like Component (CGARCH), Exponential (EGARCH), Power or Nonlinear (PGARCH), Threshold (TGARCH) models were included in analysis to capture the impact of volatility clustering, asymmetrical news, leverage effect, dominant shock, impact of bad news, elements of long run persistence and the nonlinearities in volatility of exchange rates respectively. Monthly series, beginning from January 1970 to December 2009, reflecting relatively high frequency data were used to make detailed analysis of long run and short run volatility scenarios. A Sample of only twenty-nine countries was considered after sorting out the forty selected significant trade partners of Pakistan on the basis of data availability regarding all relevant variables, with limitation that many developing countries could not be included in final analysis. The resultant sample contained fifteen developed countries that shared about fifty percent of total trade with Pakistan and only fourteen developing countries. The main objective of this study was to explore the linkages of exchange rate volatility under trade and capital flows context by comparing both identical currencies based exchange rate volatilities within short and long run scenarios primarily for Pakistan along with her counterpart developing countries. The application of panel data techniques based on fixed effects models allowed us to accomplish this objective because it ensures the removal of any undesirable distorting effects that may exist due to the omitted variable bias in the system of equations and controls the inter-country variations by cross effects and intra-country variation by period effects. Mainly GARCH (1,1) models, for both currencies exchange rates, were used to derive effective volatility proxy. Whereas, other volatility proxies as obtained through different GARCH based specifications permitted us to diagnose in detail the nature of volatility relevance implied within the context of trade and capital flows in developing countries like Pakistan. Fixed effect models, as compared to random effect models, were found more appropriate to estimate trade related functions including real trade balance, real exports, real imports, and real capital flows as well. Mainly, pooled data least squared dummy variables (LSDV) technique allowed us to develop different long run and short run fixed effect models by employing all sampled countries to analyze mutual trade aspects. The sample was further divided into two sub-groups: developed countries sub- sample and developing countries sub-sample, with the purpose to compare the impact of volatility under various trade options to evaluate developing countries trade suitability within their own group as potential strategy to avoid exchange rate volatility distortions. The results revealed that exchange rate volatility remained highly significant in short run irrespective of the currency used and lead to reduce exports as well as imports when trade was done mutually among sampled countries including both developed and developing ones. However, United States Dollar based exchange rate volatility (USD-ERV) helped to improve the trade balance while it was deteriorated with increased Pakistan Rupee based exchange rate volatility (PKR-ERV), these results remained consistent in mutual and intra developing countries both cases. Increased capital outflows were found significant independent of the currency in use across developed and developing countries when they exchanged the financial assets mutually. Some interesting findings were obtained within developing countries framework; basic volatility effect was absent for real exports with both currencies, it was absent for real imports with PKR but inverse with USD; No such effect was even existed for capital outflows in both currencies. However caused reduction in long run US dollar based imports and Pak-rupee based exports and imports both. Pak-rupee remained useful to avoid volatility impact when intra-developing countries trade occurs. However, in short run, mutual trade among developed and developing countries expanded with rise in volatility. The favorable effect of using US dollars appeared in case of trade balance only. Capital outflows increased when volatility was arrived during mutual trade irrespective of the currency in use. Effects of other volatility components on trade remained significant mostly in terms of US dollars as compared to Pak-rupee.
Loading...
Loading...

Similar Books

Loading...

Similar Chapters

Loading...

Similar News

Loading...

Similar Articles

Loading...

Similar Article Headings

Loading...

والدین کی عظمت

والدین کی عظمت
نحمدہ ونصلی علی رسولہ الکریم امّا بعد فاعوذ بااللہ من الشیطن الرجیم
بسم اللہ الرحمن الرحیم
معزز اسا تذہ کرام اور میرے ہم مکتب ساتھیو!
آج مجھے جس موضوع پر گفتگو کرنی ہے وہ ہے’’عظمت ِوالدین‘‘
صاحب ِصد ر!
والدین ایک عظیم نعمت ہیں ، ان کا وجود مسعود رحمت ہی رحمت ہے۔ ان کی موجودگی اولاد کے لیے باعث ِبرکت ہے، ان کی رضاء میں اللہ کی رضا ہے، ان کی ناراضی میں خدا کی ناراضی ہے۔ حدیث پاک میں ہے کہ جس نے یہ دیکھنا ہو کہ مجھ پر اللہ تعالیٰ راضی ہے یا ناراض تو وہ اپنے والدین کا چہرہ دیکھ لے اگر والدین خوش ہیں تو رب تعالیٰ بھی خوش ہے اگر والدین ناراض ہیں تو رب تعالیٰ بھی ناراض ہے۔
صدرِمحترم!
قرآنِ پاک میں نصِّ قطعی سے ثابت ہے کہ اپنے والدین کے ساتھ بھلائی کرو، ان کا احترام کرو، اُن کے ساتھ اچھے طریقے سے گفتگو کرو، ان کو اُف تک نہ کہو ، والدین ایک ایسی ہستی ہیں کہ یہ اولاد کا کبھی بھی بُر انہیں سوچتے ،ان کے لیے مشکلات برداشت کرتے ہیں، پریشانیوں کو سینے سے لگاتے ہیں، اُن کی اعلیٰ تعلیم وتربیت کا انتظام کرتے ہیں۔
صدرِذی وقار!
والدین کے چہرہ کو دیکھنا ایک عبادت ہے اللہ تعالیٰ مقبول حج کا ثواب عطا فرماتا ہے۔ حدیث پاکؐ میں ہے کہ کسی شخص نے پوچھا کہ مجھ پر سب سے زیادہ حق کس کا ہے آپؐ نے فرمایا کہ تیری ماں ، پھر پوچھا گیا آپؐ نے فرمایا کہ تیری ماں، پھر پوچھا تو آپؐ نے فرمایا کہ تیراباپ۔
معزز سامعین!
ماں کے بارے میں کہا گیا کہ’’ جنت ماں کے قدموں کے نیچے ہے‘‘ ماں ایک ایسی نعمت غیر مترقبہ ہے کہ جس کا بدل دنیا میں ناممکن ہے۔ ماں آنکھوں کو...

The Role and Responsibilities of Youth in Islam

Youth is considered to be the backbone of any nation. The level of moral development, civilization and consolidation of authority and potency depends on the morality of its youth. It can be said that nations survive till their ethics live. The question of youth and Islam at present stems from the overwhelming demographic weight of youth and their relatively recent invasion into the public domain, as well as a wave of Islamic revivalism throughout the world. For any society and its future the youth plays vital and integral role both for progress and decline. The reason is that youth can make the future dark or bright through their role as individuals and as active members of society. This paper draws on lively focus group narratives of young Muslims to explore the interactive presentation of Islamic selves. By bringing together young people who practice Islam in different ways, this paper offers a deeper insight into how claims to a universal identity are actively constructed and contested through particular social relationships and interactions in specific structural contexts. The first part of the paper presents introduction of the whole study. Second part gives description about the categories of youth including; pious, deviated and confused. In third part importance of youth in Islam has been highlighted. Fourth part presents social, moral, political situation of Muslim societies in contemporary time. Fifth part gives description of impact of moral, social, and political situation on the minds of young people. Discussion concludes with the responsibilities of youth which is followed by findings and conclusion of the whole discussion. In so doing, the paper takes up recent calls for more research on the personal meaning of Islam as religion for Muslim youth

Effects of Plant Extracts on the Behaviour and Physiology of the Odontotermes Obesus Ramb. Isoptera: Termitidae

Plant chemicals are an important group and naturally occurring crop protectants that are usually safer to humans and the environment than conventional pesticides with minimal residual effect. The effects of leaf and seed extracts from five plants (Dodonaea viscosa, Adhatoda vasica, Jatropha curcas, Moringa oleifer ,and Ocimum basilicum) on Odontotermes obesus (Ramb.) were evaluated in laboratory. The crude leaf and seed extracts of these plants prepared with different non-polar to polar solvent viz., petroleum ether, n- hexane, chloroform, methanol, ethanol, acetone and water. These extracts were used for bioassay in soil to determine the mortality, change in tunneling behavior, and gut enzymes of workers along with soldiers of the termites. The n-hexane leaf extract of D. viscosa in the soil showed lower LT50 (104.41, 95.53 and 66.68 hours at 1, 5 and 10% concentrations, respectively) than the other plants extracts. The tunneling activities of O.obesus in D. viscosa n-hexane extract suppressed in soil treated with 1, 5 and 10% concentration with minimum tunnel length (63.00, 36.33, 16.67 respectively) than other plants extracts. The active chemical agent of the most effective plant Dodonaea viscosa leaf extract was isolated through gel filtration was used at 1, 5 and 10% concentrations in the final bioassay for determination of lethal time (LT50) for mortality and also activities of total esterase, protease and cellulase enzymes in the mid gut of workers of O. obesus. A reduction in activities of gut protease’s and cellulase’s in the termites collected from plant extract treated soil was observed.