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Expectation Formation in a Learning and Myopic Environment

Thesis Info

Access Option

External Link

Author

Qayyum, Waqqas

Program

PhD

Institute

Quaid-I-Azam University

City

Islamabad

Province

Islamabad.

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2019

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Economics

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/10896/1/WAQQAS_QAYYUM_Economics_2019_QAU_26-09.2019.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676724701312

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Expectations play a pivotal role in human life. These are considered as filters through which the whole schematic frame of decision making must pass before implementation. Expectation making is a phenomenon which lacks determinism and objectivity because it is strictly linked with heterogeneous individualistic domains and characteristics of human life. Economic literature often categorizes expectations into rational and adaptive, it also remains concerned with categorizing inflationary expectations of economic agents without focusing much on providing a deterministic frame of reference. The study at hands tries to fill up this literature gap by analyzing expectations subjectively at individual level. The study also offers a deterministic framework of these expectations based on manifold behavioral tendencies possessed by individuals, including optimism, satisfaction, religiosity, economic literacy, shortsightedness and tendency of making comparisons. The study objectively deals with categorizing rational and adaptive nature of expectations on the part of individuals and the underlying factors causing this divide. It also captures differential levels of inflationary expectations and has tried to explain this differential based on various quantitative and qualitative attributes. Finally, the study addresses firms level inflationary expectations and offers its explanation based on some firm level attributes. The study has explored the said objectives through a well-organized field survey by collecting the subjective responses with the help of a structured questionnaire. Within an Ordinal Logit and Generalized Ordinal Logit model design, our study finds that individuals are heterogeneous with respect to rational and adaptive nature of expectations. They are also found heterogeneous in terms of reporting high and low-level forecasts of inflation. On deterministic front, we find that demographic variables including age, income and education significantly affect rationality and levels of inflationary expectations in our first two empirical models. The hypothesized behavioral attributes including myopic tendency, optimism, satisfaction content, economic literacy and relative comparison have also been found significant with respect to their impact on degree of rationality and inflationary expectations. Finally, the proposed firm level attributes including market experience of firm, firm’s size, nature of firm, myopia in price setting, forward looking behavior and information set all are found significant determinants of firm level inflationary expectations.
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پروفیسر شہریار

مظہر امام /پروفیسر شہریار/پروفیسر مغنی تبسم
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Nigerian Politics and Politics in Nigeria: A Contemplation of Islamic Political Thought in Nigeria

Democracy in Nigeria is characterised by corruption, irregularities and injustice. The level of political hostility in the country has resulted in loss of lives and properties and as a result, there have been hindrances to peace and national development to prevail in Nigeria. Hence, the ugly political developments have generated a lot of concerns and questions such as what are the causes of the political unrest in Nigeria? Is democracy really paying off as a political system in Nigeria?  What has been the result of democracy in Nigeria?  Can there be a better political system in Nigeria? If so, can Islamic political system fulfil the longing of Nigerians? Answers to these questions shall form the body of this research. The research discovers the absence of fairness in the electoral process and bad governance in Nigeria. This research reveals the flaws in effectiveness of democracy as a system of government in Nigeria. It proposes adopting an alternative model of governance. Lastly, this research contemplates the Islamic political model for a better Nigeria.

شیخ احمد سرہندی اور شاہ ولی اللہ بحثیت مجدد تقابلی جائزہ

My Ph.D dissertation is a "Comparative Analysis of Sheikh Ahmed Sarhandi and Shah Waliullah as revivalists". Though much has been written on this topic yet the comparative analysis of both these personalities has never been done before inclusive way with special order. The objective of writing this thesis was to expose the services of the families of Sheikh Ahmed Sarhandi and Shah Waliullah for the cause of Islam. I have categorized my thesis into six chapters. The first chapter includes revivalism and its history. The second chapter is entitled as The Torch-Bearers of the movement of the revival of the Region. This chapter covers the life span of Sheik Ahmed Sarhandi and biography of Shah Waliullah. The third chapter presents the back-ground of the reformative achievements. The forth chapter covers the reformative and the revivalistic achievements. This chapter has further been distributed in three sections. This chapter vividly describes those revivalistic endeavors which made them Revivalists. The fifth chapter is about the spread and perfection of the revivalistic task. The first section comprises the revivalistic endeavors of the successors of Sheikh Ahmed Sarhandi whereas, the achievements of the successors of Shah Waliullah have been discussed in the second section. The sixth chapter presents in the comparative analysis of Sheikh Ahmed Sarhandi and Shah Waliullah as revivalists. In the beginning of the chapter, the meaning of comparative analysis, its beginning, significance and the rules and the regulations have been discussed. After that, the comparative analysis has been presented under different headings. In the last portion of the chapter, the allegations put against these personalities and their impacts have been described and it has been demonstrated who actually are revivalists and how their thought - provoking teachings can be helpful in today's age of turmoil. At the end of thesis, the out come of the research, suggestions, punctuation and references have been mentioned.