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Expectation Formation in a Learning and Myopic Environment

Thesis Info

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External Link

Author

Qayyum, Waqqas

Program

PhD

Institute

Quaid-I-Azam University

City

Islamabad

Province

Islamabad.

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2019

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Economics

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/10896/1/WAQQAS_QAYYUM_Economics_2019_QAU_26-09.2019.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676724701312

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Expectations play a pivotal role in human life. These are considered as filters through which the whole schematic frame of decision making must pass before implementation. Expectation making is a phenomenon which lacks determinism and objectivity because it is strictly linked with heterogeneous individualistic domains and characteristics of human life. Economic literature often categorizes expectations into rational and adaptive, it also remains concerned with categorizing inflationary expectations of economic agents without focusing much on providing a deterministic frame of reference. The study at hands tries to fill up this literature gap by analyzing expectations subjectively at individual level. The study also offers a deterministic framework of these expectations based on manifold behavioral tendencies possessed by individuals, including optimism, satisfaction, religiosity, economic literacy, shortsightedness and tendency of making comparisons. The study objectively deals with categorizing rational and adaptive nature of expectations on the part of individuals and the underlying factors causing this divide. It also captures differential levels of inflationary expectations and has tried to explain this differential based on various quantitative and qualitative attributes. Finally, the study addresses firms level inflationary expectations and offers its explanation based on some firm level attributes. The study has explored the said objectives through a well-organized field survey by collecting the subjective responses with the help of a structured questionnaire. Within an Ordinal Logit and Generalized Ordinal Logit model design, our study finds that individuals are heterogeneous with respect to rational and adaptive nature of expectations. They are also found heterogeneous in terms of reporting high and low-level forecasts of inflation. On deterministic front, we find that demographic variables including age, income and education significantly affect rationality and levels of inflationary expectations in our first two empirical models. The hypothesized behavioral attributes including myopic tendency, optimism, satisfaction content, economic literacy and relative comparison have also been found significant with respect to their impact on degree of rationality and inflationary expectations. Finally, the proposed firm level attributes including market experience of firm, firm’s size, nature of firm, myopia in price setting, forward looking behavior and information set all are found significant determinants of firm level inflationary expectations.
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رئیس احمد جعفری

رئیس احمد جعفری
سید نجیب اشرف صاحب مرحوم کی موت کا زخم ابھی تازہ تھا کہ ندوے کے ایک اور نامور فرزند رئیس احمد جعفری نے بھی داغ مفارقت دیا، اکتوبر کی آخری تاریخوں میں پاکستان میں ان کا انتقال ہوا، جوار لکھنؤ کا قصبہ خیرآباد ان کا وطن تھا، مشہور شاعر، ریاض خیر آبادی کے نواسے تھے، راقم جب ندوہ میں آخری درجوں میں تھا، مرحوم ابتدائی درجوں میں تھے، عربی کی تعلیم کے بعد جامعہ ملیہ میں انگریزی کی تعلیم حاصل کی، پھر خلافت اخبار بمبئی کے اڈیٹوریل اسٹاف میں ملازم ہوگئے، بعد میں اس کے اڈیٹر بھی ہوگئے تھے، قیام پاکستان کے بعد لاہور چلے گئے۔
مرحوم میں تالیف و تصنیف کا ذوق فطری تھا، طالب علمی کے زمانے میں بھی خامہ فرسائی کیا کرتے تھے، ان کے قلم میں بڑا زور تھا، جس پر ان کی پہلی تصنیف سیرت محمد علی شاہد ہے، اس وقت ان کی عمر پچیس چھبیس سال سے زیادہ نہ رہی ہوگی، بڑے زودنویس تھے، ان کا قلم ہمیشہ رواں دواں رہتا تھا، بڑی بڑی ضخیم کتابیں چند دن میں لکھ ڈالتے تھے، ادب و افسانے سے لے کر تاریخ و مذہبیات تک میں ان کے قلم کی جولانی یکساں تھی، ہر صنف میں ان کی تصانیف موجود ہیں، اس دور کے مصنفین میں کثرت تصانیف کے لحاظ سے ان کا نام سرفہرست ہوگا، ادارہ ثقافت اسلامیہ لاہور کے قیام کے بعد اس سے متعلق ہوگئے تھے، اور اس کے لیے کئی کتابیں لکھیں، اس کے رسالہ ثقافت اسلامیہ حال المعارف میں ان کے مضامین نکلتے رہتے تھے، اس کے تازہ اکتوبر نمبر میں بھی ان کا ایک مضمون ’’عالم اسلام سے مسلمانان برعظیم کی وابستگی‘‘ شائع ہوا ہے، کیا خبر تھی کہ یہ ان کا آخری مضمون ہے۔ (شاہ معین الدین ندوی، نومبر ۱۹۶۸ء)

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