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Home > Global Comovement of Stock Market Returns and its Determinants: A Panel Data Analysis

Global Comovement of Stock Market Returns and its Determinants: A Panel Data Analysis

Thesis Info

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Author

Hussain, Atif

Program

PhD

Institute

Preston University

City

Kohat

Province

KPK

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2019

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Management Sciences

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/11697/1/Atif%20Hussain_Mngt%20Sci%20%28Fin%29_2019_Preston_PRR.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676724734908

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Globalization and economic integration bring the stock markets closer around the world. The changing structures of international economies have substantial impact on the performance of stock markets world over. It becomes necessary to investigate the comovement of stock market returns among the world economies for better understanding the level of integration and dependencies among the countries. The current study analyzes the intra and inter-regional level comovement of stock market returns between the developed and emerging economies of America, Asia and Europe over the period 1988-2014. The study used the Error-correction-based panel cointegration model to analyze long-run equilibrium and short-run causality relationship between different equity markets. To confine the time varying behavior of comovements, the present study divided the whole period into sub periods i.e. tranquil periods (1988-1996, 1999-2006 and 2012-2014), the Asian financial crises periods (1997-1998) and global and European financial crises (2007-2011). Additionally, time varying correlation and non-parametric time varying panel data regression coefficients were also estimated to capture the extent of comovement and asymmetric impacts. The results of panel cointegration analysis revealed the strong evidence of long-and short-run cointegration of equity market returns between developed and emerging countries of America, Asia and Europe at intra-regional level. The results also exhibited strong cointegration relationships between developed-developed and developed- emerging countries at inter-regional level. But as concern to emerging-emerging economies, the analyses showed weak evidence regarding the long- and short-run cointegration between the stock returns of these markets. As concern to the sub-periods, no long-run cointegration relationships were found between any markets at inter-regional level during tranquil period 1988-1996. Further, the results revealed long term cointegration relationships between the developed and emerging equity markets of America, Asia and Europe during the tranquil periods of 1999-2006 and 2012-2014. Considering the Asian crises periods, the results provided evidence of cointegration only for the equity markets of Asia region. In contrast to Asian crises, all the developed and emerging equity markets of America, Asia and Europe viii exhibited strong cointegration relationships during the periods of global and European financial crises. To judge the extent of comovement, the time varying correlation at intra regional level showed that European countries exhibit the strong comovement of equity market returns compare to American and Asian equity markets. The inter-regional analyses revealed that developed-developed equity markets have strong comovements than developed emerging and emerging-emerging ones. To capture the asymmetric impact, the time varying regression showed that both the developed and emerging equity markets exhibit positive impact on each other. But the magnitude of impact of developed equity markets on the emerging equity markets was stronger than that of emerging on developed ones, revealing the leading nature of developed markets. The time varying analyses also revealed that comovement of stock market returns increases since the period of Asian financial crises, especially in the start of 21st century. The study also investigated the impact of political risk factors and economic fundamentals on the comovement of stock market returns. Pooled cross-pair time series regression has been estimated across the pairs of developed countries, emerging countries, American, European, Asian countries and for the entire study sample. The results showed that difference political voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, rule of law have significant negative impact while regulatory quality and control of corruption have insignificant impact on the comovement of stock market returns. The results further showed that difference in economic growth, market size, inflation rate and interest rate have significant negative while bilateral trade has positive impact on the comovement of equity market returns. The results of this study have some important practical implications especially in terms predictability, portfolio risk management and asset allocation and measuring economic integration between different economies.
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آمد سے قبل معجزات

واضح نہیں ہوئی تھی ابھی شانِ کردگار
اُس وقت کب کسی کو تھی پہچانِ کردگار
پھر یوں ہُوا وہ لوگوں پہ احسانِ کردگار
خود کردگار کا تھا جو جانانِ کردگار
اُس کے زمیں پہ آنے کے آثار ہو گئے
اور معجزات تھے کہ نمودار ہو گئے

سچ ہی تھا مُطّلب کا وہ یعنی کہا ہُوا
پھر طیر کے وہ جُھنڈ نظر آئے باخدا
برساتِ سنگ کرتے وہ دشمن پہ جابجا
قہرِ خدا سے لشکرِ اعدا ہُوا فنا
اپنے حبیبؐ کے لیے ایسا سماں کِیا
دشمن تھے جتنے آپؐ کے عبرت نشاں کِیا

پھر یوں جنابِ آمنہ کا انکشاف تھا
جب سے شکم میں میرے ہے یہ نورِ باصفا
محسوس اس کا بار بھی ہوتا نہیں ذرا
سایہ کُناں ہے سر پہ مرے ٹکڑا ابر کا
پوشیدہ اس میں تھا یہی پیغامِ کبریا
یعنی نبیؐ کی ذات سراسر ہے معجزہ

EFFECTIVENESS OF COMMUNITY SCHOOL NETWORKING FOR CHILDREN WITH AUTISM: PERSPECTIVES OF TEACHERS AND SCHOOL ADMINISTRATORS

Objective: In order to provide equal educational opportunities, community school networking is an emerging trend to facilitate inclusion of children with mild-moderate Autism. This quantitative research aims to investigate the effectiveness of community networking for children with Autism from Pakistani lower socio-economic stratum of society. Study Design: Qualitative Research Design Study Settings and Participants: Six mild-moderate autistic children were enrolled in three mainstreams schools and a liaison between these schools, and a rehabilitation center located in the same area was created to facilitate inclusion. The researchers interviewed six teachers from mainstream schools, three school administrators and one administrator of rehabilitation regarding the effectiveness of community school networking for children with Autism after eight months of this collaboration. Data Collection Tool: Data were obtained through semi-structured interviews Results: All participating administrators and teachers underscored the changes in social and behavioral patterns of autistic children which included an imitation of positive behaviors from peers, acceptance, and awareness as strengths of community school networking model. However, major challenges faced were unacceptability from parents of normal children, learning differences, curriculum modifications, time constraints and dependency on the resource teacher. The administrators and teachers recommended that creating awareness programs for parents of normal children, curriculum modifications and in-house psychologists can further facilitate inclusion of children with disabilities. Conclusion: It was concluded that community school networking model can assist inclusive education and encourage engagement for all children, including those who are autistic.

Misfire Fault Detection in Spark Ignition Engine Using Hybrid Model

Automotive industry has added the self-diagnostic features in vehicles to improve the reliability of vehicle. Research is being carried out to predict the faults that are going to occur in near future by the analysis of current values of vehicle variables. The presented work stressed on the application of Markov chains for the early detection of misfire fault in spark ignition engines. To define the states of Markov chains a novel hybrid model is presented to represent SI engine under steady state conditions. A survey of existing mathematical models of SI engine is provided. The hybrid model of SI engine was not widely studied area in the past. The proposed hybrid model with both continuous and discrete states is described in details. The basic assumption of modeling is that the cylinder contributing engine power is the basic active sub-component that provides power for useful work as well as to other cylinders that need power for compression, suction or exhaust. The cylinder providing power is considered as the active cylinder. The active cylinder is switched periodically in a cyclic manner. The continuous states of hybrid model are defined by considering each cylinder of SI engine as the sub-systems of hybrid model. The switching of active cylinder is considered as discrete state of hybrid model. The model is simulated to study the crankshaft speed fluctuations observed in SI engine. The simulation results are then verified experimentally on 1300 cc engine of a production vehicle from Honda by acquiring data using Data Acquisition Cards of National Instrument Inc. The properties of presented model are then studied and some results are established for onward stochastic analysis. The crankshaft speed fluctuation signal is analyzed using the properties of the proposed model and it is established that the peak values of observed speed during an ignition cycle is Gaussian and Markov. The peak value of crankshaft speed observed in each ignition cycle is associated with one of the cylinders or sub-systems. In this way four possible states are identified where ith state correspond to the peak value of crankshaft speed associated with ith sub-system of hybrid model. It is assumed that all states are equally probable when engine is healthy and that the fault would bias one of the states. The proposed novel fault detection algorithm identifies the biasing of a state by the calculation of Limiting State Probability of Markov Chains to indicate the fault. The data for both healthy and faulty engine condition is generated using hybrid model and analyzed using proposed fault detection method. The algorithm is finally verified experimentally by acquiring data from SI engine both under no fault condition and faulty condition and analyzing it for the existence of fault. The correctness of fault predicted by algorithm is mathematically analyzed using analysis similar to ROC analysis. In error analysis the fault is predicted using proposed algorithm and compared with the data observed experimentally to study the false positive events. The plot of analysis demonstrates the affectivity of algorithm.