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Initial Public Offering Valuation Dynamics, Evidence from Pakistani Capital Market

Thesis Info

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External Link

Author

Rasheed, Abdul

Program

PhD

Institute

COMSATS University Islamabad

City

Islamabad

Province

Islamabad.

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2019

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Management Sciences

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/11825/1/Thesis%20Complete%20PRR.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676724805393

Similar


The thesis examines the valuation dynamics of Pakistani Initial Public Offerings (IPOs): their practices, motivations and implications. This study examines the pre-IPO valuation dynamics and the post-IPO price performance paradigms using 88 IPOs floated from 2000 to 2016 on the Pakistan Stock Exchange. The main objectives of this study includes: (1) to provide insights of preferred valuation methods when valuing IPOs, (2) to compare the bias and accuracy attached to each valuation methods, (3) to provide the usefulness of prospectus information on the initial valuations, the underpricing and the long-run underperformance, and finally, (4) to validate the long-run underperformance using calendar-time approaches. The binary logit model, the signed predictcion errors (SPE) and the absolute prediction errors (APE) were used to explain the choice, bias and accuracy attached to each valuation methods respectively. The accounting-based valuation model was used to estimate the impact of fundamental, risk and signaling factors on the post-IPO performance. The capital asset pricing model (CAPM), Fama-French three- (FF3F) and five-factor (FF5F) models were used as robust measures to affirm the long-run underperformance anomaly. The findings document that the Pakistani underwriters repeatedly used dividend discount model (DDM), discounted cash flow (DCF) model and the comparable multiples valuation methods when valuing IPOs. The findings of SPE reveal that the DDM and DCF methods seem to be unbiased value estimators than the comparable multiples. The findings of APE document that the DCF produce more valuation accuracy than the other valuation methods. The average underpricing of 32.85% was observed in the Pakistani primary market. This research extends the underpricing analysis in various aspects such as: (1) the level of underpricing was negatively related to the firm size, (2) the underpricing of IPOs issued in the hot-issue market was significantly higher than the IPOs issued in the cold-issue market, (3) the underpricing of IPOs issued through bookbuilding was lower than the IPOs issued through the fixed price auction, (4) the underpricing of privatization IPOs was higher than the underpricing of non-privatization IPOs, (5) the underpricing of survivor IPOs was higher than the underpricing of non-survivor IPOs, XI (6) the IPOs offered in the Oil & Gas and Chemicals sectors produce more underpricing than the other sectors. The finding of initial excess returns (IER) regression analysis reveals that the earnings, financial leverage, efficiency risk, firm beta and the underwriter reputation were the key determinants to explain variation in the level of underpricing. In the long-run returns (LRR) analysis, the buy and hold abnormal returns (BHAR) produce negative returns of -23.52% and -65.22% in year 3 and year 5 respectively. On the similar pattern, the cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) produce negative returns of -24.62% and -29.37% in year 3 and year 5 respectively. This study extend the long-run performance analysis in various aspects such as: (1) the IPOs issued in hot-issue market produce more negative returns than the IPOs issued during coldissue market, (2) the Automobile & Electrical Goods sector IPOs produce worst negative returns, while the Modaraba & Foods sector IPOs outperform the market in the long run, (3) the privatization IPOs outperform the market in the long run than the non-privatization IPOs. The finding of LRR regression analysis reveals that the book value of shareholder’s equity, earnings, capital availability risk, firm beta, underwriter reputation, the percentage of shares offered and initial excess returns were the significant determinants that explain the variation in the long-run returns.In the Calendar-time approach, the negative values of intercepts of CAPM, FF3F & FF5F validate the negative performance in the long run. The market risk premium was the most significant determinant in all asset pricing models, while HML-value factor (in equally-weighted FF5F) and CMA-investment factor (in value-weighted FF5F) were also significant determinants in the Fama-French five-factor models. This study is one of the few studies in IPO valuation literature that is being accomplished in a growing and transforming from loose regulated capital market to synchronize the state of affairs and first in Pakistan to investigate the explanatory power of prospectus information on IPO valuation dynamics.
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