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Investigating the Crowding-Out Effect of Chinas Exports on Pakistans Exports

Thesis Info

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External Link

Author

Naseem, Asia

Program

PhD

Institute

University of Agriculture

City

Faisalabad

Province

Punjab

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2019

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Economics

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/11971/1/Asia%20Naseem%20economics%202019%20uaf%20prr.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676724815366

Similar


Over the last two decades, China has emerged as an economic giant in the world economy. After joining the world trade organization in 2001, it became the largest exporter in the world since 2009, having the highest share in world gross domestic product based on purchasing power parity. China’s astounding economic success hinges on export-led growth, the same strategy that was behind the success of four Asian Tigers. China’s path to success is an inspiration for other developing countries; it is an example to follow. Pakistan is no exception and is trying to increase its own exports. However, Pakistan’s exports enhancing policies are a long way from being successful. China’s entry into the world market is a big country case of international trade. It can affect the export patterns of other countries that are supplying to the same destinations, having similar factor endowment. China has become the prime trading partner of the United States of America, which is a major export destination for Pakistan as well. Furthermore, textile is a major export sector for Pakistan and China is a big supplier in that sector. There is a likelihood that China’s export-led growth may be crowding out Pakistan’s exports from third country markets. There is no previous work on the topic with reference to Pakistan. This is the first study, which has investigated the crowding-out effect of China’s exports for all exports sectors of Pakistan. For comprehensive analysis, the study is divided into the following subsections. Firstly, five major export destinations of Pakistan are explored separately for all exports sectors, for competitive threat posed to Pakistan’s exports from China’s. Relative changes in market share are used as an indication of competitive threat. The role of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in maintaining the market share of an export is observed for all exports. Secondly, the magnitude of the crowding-out effect of China’s export expansion on Pakistan’s exports is measured. In the third step, the study explores whether the Pak-China bilateral trade compensates for China’s crowding-out effect in the international market or is other way around. As China is the main trading partner of Pakistan, RCA patterns of both countries are explored as determinants of the bilateral trade pattern between Pakistan and China. Distance elasticity is also measured along with the other determinants of China’s exports. After the completion of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) distance travelled by China’s exports will be reduced substantially, leading to an increase in China’s exports. A gravity model approach was used for the analysis. Instrumental variable 2 stage least squares (IV2SLS) was applied to data by generalized methods of moments (GMM) to establish the causal relationship. Additionally, the method was successful to tackle the problems of endogeneity and heteroscedasticity. Other determinants of the exports of Pakistan and China were also included in the modelling. These determinants included gross domestic product of exporting and importing countries, distance, landlocked countries and common language. The study used secondary data which was collected through reliable sources as per the requirement of the study. It was concluded that Pakistan’s exports are crowded-out by China’s exports. It was a twodimensional analysis, destination wise and export category wise. Except mineral exports, there is no export category in Pakistan which is not under threat in at least one of the studied destinations. And there is no destination among the top five included in the study which is safe for all exports from Pakistan. In the second part, magnitude and direction wise, varying effect of China’s exports is found on different export sectors of Pakistan. Pak-China bilateral trade is enhancing the effect of China’s exports in the international market for most of the export categories. Among other determinants, the GDP of the importer has a significant positive effect on exports volume both in the case of Pakistan and China. Trade costs (distance and landlocked) hinder the exports volume of Pakistan and of China. For all exports of China, the distance coefficient is negative and significant, indicating that CPEC completion will have a positive effect on China’s exports. In comparison to China’s exports, Pakistan’s exports are more responsive to change in magnitude of any variable included in the model, except common language. It was also concluded that Pakistan is relying on the exports of primary goods and there is lack of value addition in the overall exports of Pakistan. Exports which compete successfully in the international market or perform well in bilateral trade with China are all primary, non-processed exports with little value addition. Pakistan’s exports cannot be enhanced only by internal facilitation, but the problem needs be addressed by taking into account the current and upcoming scenario of international trade where China is a major player in the market.
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