Modelling of return and volatility as well as their dynamic spillovers between different financial markets at aggregated and disaggregated level has gained increasing interest among Financial economists. Alternative univariate and multivariate specifications have been exploited by empirical researchers to measure returns and volatility and their spillovers. However, financial markets are responsive to some specific events that have distorting effect on the model estimates. These unexpected events are depicted as outliers in the data. The estimates of GARCH type models are sensitive to the presence of outliers (Carnero et al., 2016; Charles, 2008; Charles and Darné, 2014). Studying the distortionary effects of outliers is important for the policy makers, hedge fund managers as well as investors. However, it is hard to find any study which investigates the impact of outliers and spillovers keeping in view the sensitivity of GARCH type models to the outliers in context of Pakistan Stock Exchange (hereafter PSX). This study firstly examines the effect of outliers on the returns, volatility and their dynamic spillovers between Pakistan Stock Exchange and world selected stock markets., Secondly, among different sectors of Pakistan Stock Exchange and thirdly, between sectors of Pakistan Stock Exchange and Brent oil market. Finally, the optimal portfolio weights and hedge ratios for both outliers contaminated returns and outliers adjusted returns are calculated. This study employs the Laurent et al. (2016) method and the Charles and Darné (2005) methods for the detection and correction of outliers. To quantify the dynamics of returns, volatility and their spillovers for unadjusted and adjusted returns, the model of Ling and McAleer (2003) and McAleer et al. (2009) are estimated. Furthermore, daily data sampled from January 01, 2001 to December 31, 2015 was retrieved from DataStream for estimation. II The results of the study at market level indicate that the estimates of conditional mean and conditional variance of Pakistan Stock Exchange are insensitive to the choice of foreign stock market. Furthermore, these coefficients did not change with the correction or non-correction of outliers except intercept of volatility equation. The presence of outliers results in overestimation of intercept term in volatility equation of Pakistan Stock Exchange in all pairs with selected stock markets. The developed stock markets and Indian stock market have significant return spillovers effect to Pakistan Stock Exchange; however, they were slightly overvalued due to the presence of outliers in the data.It was evident that the markets shocks of the US and Euro region spillovers to Pakistan Stock Exchange. In contrast, shocks and volatility of Pakistan Stock Exchange spillovers to Indian stock market only for both unadjusted and adjusted returns. Outliers adjusted returns reduced these spillovers marginally. Presence of outliers did not show significant effect on the estimated values of optimal portfolio weights and hedge ratios. Sectoral analysis of Pakistan Stock Exchange leads to the conclusion that first and second conditional moments of a sector were sensitive to the choice of other sector in the pair. The outliers’ adjustment has sensitivity reducing effect on conditional mean and variance of sectoral returns. The intercept terms in all sectoral stock return volatility equations were well above its market counterpart. Moreover, the estimates of GARCH coefficients revolve around market volatility estimates. Although return spillovers have been observed in some of the sectors but overall the return spillovers are insignificant for both unadjusted and adjusted returns. In contrast to the market level, short run and long run volatility spillovers are sensitive to the presence of outliers. The results also showed that adjustment of outliers have significant impact on the estimates of optimal portfolio weights and hedge ratio. III Finally, we study the effect of outliers on the returns and volatility as well as their spillovers between Brent oil and Pakistan Stock Exchange. The analysis revealed that mean and volatility estimates of Pakistan Stock Exchange bench mark index returns, and oil market returns are non-responsive to presence of outliers. Short run price spillover is found significant from oil market to Pakistan stock market both at market and sectoral levels. Whereas, no transmission of short run as well as long run volatility exist between these two markets for both unadjusted and adjusted returns. The optimal portfolio weights and hedge ratios remains identical for both unadjusted and adjusted returns. The findings are worth interesting for the investors and policy makers.
سیّد مبارک شاہ کی پہلی کتاب ’’جنگل گمان کے‘‘ 1993ء میں منظر عام پر آئی اور اشاعت کے اولین ماہ میں ہی سٹالوں پر دستیاب نہ رہی۔دوسری کتاب 1995ء میں شائع ہوئی جبکہ تیسری کتاب ’’مدارنارسائی میں‘‘1998ء میں چھپ کر سامنے آئی۔تینوں کتابوں کو اہل ذوق محبت میں عجلت دکھاتے ہوئے۔دکانوں سے اپنی لائبریریوں میں اور اشعار کو اوراق سے اپنے دلوں میں منتقل کر لیا۔سیّد مبارک شاہ کی دوسری کتاب ’’ہم اپنی ذات کے کافر‘‘ 1995ء میں چھپ کر اہل ذوق سے داد وصول کر چکی ہے۔یہ کتاب آپ کی غزلوں اور نظموں پر مشتمل ہے۔اس مجموعہ کلام میں (48) غزلیں شامل ہیں۔ان غزلوں کا موضوعاتی جائزہ لینے سے پہلے غزل کی تعریف اور ارتقاء پر روشنی ڈالتا ہوں۔
عربی،فارسی،پنجابی اور اردو کی مشہور و مقبول صنف غزل ہے۔اس صنف میں اتنی دلکشی،جاذبیت اور کھچاؤ موجود ہیکہ ہر دور اور ہر طبقے کے دلوں کی دھڑکن بنی رہی اور زندگی کی رگوں میں خون بن کر دوڑتی رہی ہے۔لفظ ’’غزل‘‘ کے ماخذ کے بارے میں ماہرین زبان و ادب کے درمیان اختلاف رائے موجود ہے۔ایک گروہ کا خیال ہے کہ ’’غزل‘‘ عربی زبان کا لفظ ہے جس کے معنی اون کتنا،اون کو تار تار کر کے دھاگہ تیار کرنا کے ہیں۔(1)
جب کہ دوسرے گروہ کا نظریہ ہے کہ عورتوں کے ساتھ بات چیت کرنا،اْن کے حسن و عشق کے بارے میں باتیں کرنا۔
’’در لغت حدیث کردن بازناں ومعاشقہ با ایشاں است ومغازلہ نیز عشق بازی و محاولہ بازناں است، در اصطلاح عبارت است ازابیاتی چند بریک وزن و قافیہ کہ بشعر مشتمل بر مضامین معاشقہ و تصویر احوال عشاق وجمال مشعوق۔‘‘(2)
In its development, madrasas have undergone various changes, namely from the pesantren learning system to the madrasa system; from traditional to classical methods; from halaqah system to benches, desks and blackboards; from traditional to modern curricula; from classical education to modern educational reform. The change indicates the existence of process or efforts of development of madrasah education in the direction of more advanced, qualified and competitive from time to time. Conceptually, one way to improve the quality of education and competitiveness of madrasah in the era of globalization competition is to implement strategic management which includes 4 stages such as environmental analysis, formulating, implementing and evaluating strategic decisions between functions that enable an organization to achieve its goals in the future. Strategic Management is based on the entire scope of the work. Thus it can be utilized well for makronya environment for example in government management and also can be utilized also for in mikronya environment for example in company management or organization or pengeloalan Madrasah. However, it should be understood only here that in the use of macro and micro scope there are a number of fundamental differences such as the following exposures.
Ungulate remains from Siwaliks of Pakistan provide a long and continuous record of diverse geochronologic ranges and ecological niches that in turn help to explore paleoenvironments of Pakistan Siwaliks. Ecomorphic data of ungulates dental material via hypsodonty, dental microwear, mesowear type-I, II and type-III methods was collected in the present study and on comparison of dental ecomorphic data of 160 taxa of ungulate remains with standardized data of their extant communities revealed a baseline data which helped for reconstruction of paleoenvironment of the target area. In the early Miocene (18.3-15 Ma), the paleocommunities of suids, tragulids, giraffids, anthracotheres and boselaphines have been found to give rise to 2 lineages each. However, rhinos and proboscideans have evolved into 3 to 4 lineages. Ecometric analysis has shown the predominance of browsers (50%), followed by fruigivores (16.7%), mixed feeders in closed habitat (16.7%), and omnivores (15-17%) in forested habitats. In the middle Miocene (14.2-11.2 Ma), the paleocommunity has exhibited maximum species diversity that documented 54 lineages of ungulates including Sivapithecus sp. Un till 11 Ma, on the basis of baseline data the proportions of browsers gradually decreased, forest fruigivorous and mixed feeder in closed habitats increased, however, the lineages showed no significant changes in their dietary adaptations. By 11 Ma, mixed feeding in open habitat taxa appeared with predominance of forest fruigivores (35%) and browsers (32.5%). There was decreasing proportions of frugivore/selective browsers (35-16%), browsers (32-23.3%) and mixed feeders in closed habitats (19-16%) and increasing prevalence of mixed feeders (2.7-28%) in open habitats and grazers (0- 4.64%) at 8 Ma. The latest Miocene (8-6.5 Ma) of the Siwaliks chronicled the progression of great faunal turnover event during which a significant number of long lasting lineages belonging to hipparionine horses, rhinoceroses, boselaphines, sivatherines, antelopes and tragulids altered their feeding adaptations from browsing to mixed feeders in open habitats/grazers. Most of the lineages of mixed feeders in closed habitats and fruigivores gradually became extinct before 7 Ma, whereas, successive influx of lineages of mixed feeders in open habitats, grazers with stable turnover of browsers and omnivores progressed during 6.5-0.5 Ma. The mesowear, microwear data from late Miocene and hypsodonty based ecomorphic data (18.3-0.5 Ma) has provided succession of the paleocommunities in Siwaliks which portray the evolution of the siwaliks ecosystem depicting the change from closed vegetation system (18.3-8.5 Ma) to semi-closed one and from semi-closed vegetation (8.5-6.5 Ma) to open vegetation system (6.5-0.5 Ma). The climate appears to have been evolved from humid and warm to dry seasonal and monsoonal one. The paleoclimate and vegetation succession has been found to lead to a cascade of diverse environmental mosaics ranging from tropical multi-canopied forest in the early Miocene to tropical evergreen forest during the middle Miocene. Thenceforth, moist deciduous canopy forest (11-10 Ma), dry deciduous forest (at ~9 Ma), mosaics of dry deciduous forest and temperate woodland (at ~8.5 Ma), woodlands with limited patches of deciduous forest, wooded savannas (8.5-6.5 Ma) progressed. The wooded savannas with guilds of grassy savannas (6.5-4 Ma) interspersed with deciduous forests and woodlands (4-3 Ma) and mosaics of wooded and grassy savannas (3-2 Ma) ecosystems evolved. The disappearance of most of the forested patches and prevalence of pure grasslands occurred during 2-0.5 Ma. This study provides a comprehensive account of the paleaoenvironment of Pakistan Siwaliks in relation to mammalian biostratigraphic and paleoecologic processes at an evolutionary scale.