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Modelling Financial Time Series in the Presence of Outliers

Thesis Info

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Author

Malik, Muhammad Irfan

Program

PhD

Institute

International Islamic University

City

Islamabad

Province

Islamabad.

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2019

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Economics

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/11663/1/Muhammad_Irfan_malik_Econometrics_2019_IIU_09.07.2019.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676724871069

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Modelling of return and volatility as well as their dynamic spillovers between different financial markets at aggregated and disaggregated level has gained increasing interest among Financial economists. Alternative univariate and multivariate specifications have been exploited by empirical researchers to measure returns and volatility and their spillovers. However, financial markets are responsive to some specific events that have distorting effect on the model estimates. These unexpected events are depicted as outliers in the data. The estimates of GARCH type models are sensitive to the presence of outliers (Carnero et al., 2016; Charles, 2008; Charles and Darné, 2014). Studying the distortionary effects of outliers is important for the policy makers, hedge fund managers as well as investors. However, it is hard to find any study which investigates the impact of outliers and spillovers keeping in view the sensitivity of GARCH type models to the outliers in context of Pakistan Stock Exchange (hereafter PSX). This study firstly examines the effect of outliers on the returns, volatility and their dynamic spillovers between Pakistan Stock Exchange and world selected stock markets., Secondly, among different sectors of Pakistan Stock Exchange and thirdly, between sectors of Pakistan Stock Exchange and Brent oil market. Finally, the optimal portfolio weights and hedge ratios for both outliers contaminated returns and outliers adjusted returns are calculated. This study employs the Laurent et al. (2016) method and the Charles and Darné (2005) methods for the detection and correction of outliers. To quantify the dynamics of returns, volatility and their spillovers for unadjusted and adjusted returns, the model of Ling and McAleer (2003) and McAleer et al. (2009) are estimated. Furthermore, daily data sampled from January 01, 2001 to December 31, 2015 was retrieved from DataStream for estimation. II The results of the study at market level indicate that the estimates of conditional mean and conditional variance of Pakistan Stock Exchange are insensitive to the choice of foreign stock market. Furthermore, these coefficients did not change with the correction or non-correction of outliers except intercept of volatility equation. The presence of outliers results in overestimation of intercept term in volatility equation of Pakistan Stock Exchange in all pairs with selected stock markets. The developed stock markets and Indian stock market have significant return spillovers effect to Pakistan Stock Exchange; however, they were slightly overvalued due to the presence of outliers in the data.It was evident that the markets shocks of the US and Euro region spillovers to Pakistan Stock Exchange. In contrast, shocks and volatility of Pakistan Stock Exchange spillovers to Indian stock market only for both unadjusted and adjusted returns. Outliers adjusted returns reduced these spillovers marginally. Presence of outliers did not show significant effect on the estimated values of optimal portfolio weights and hedge ratios. Sectoral analysis of Pakistan Stock Exchange leads to the conclusion that first and second conditional moments of a sector were sensitive to the choice of other sector in the pair. The outliers’ adjustment has sensitivity reducing effect on conditional mean and variance of sectoral returns. The intercept terms in all sectoral stock return volatility equations were well above its market counterpart. Moreover, the estimates of GARCH coefficients revolve around market volatility estimates. Although return spillovers have been observed in some of the sectors but overall the return spillovers are insignificant for both unadjusted and adjusted returns. In contrast to the market level, short run and long run volatility spillovers are sensitive to the presence of outliers. The results also showed that adjustment of outliers have significant impact on the estimates of optimal portfolio weights and hedge ratio. III Finally, we study the effect of outliers on the returns and volatility as well as their spillovers between Brent oil and Pakistan Stock Exchange. The analysis revealed that mean and volatility estimates of Pakistan Stock Exchange bench mark index returns, and oil market returns are non-responsive to presence of outliers. Short run price spillover is found significant from oil market to Pakistan stock market both at market and sectoral levels. Whereas, no transmission of short run as well as long run volatility exist between these two markets for both unadjusted and adjusted returns. The optimal portfolio weights and hedge ratios remains identical for both unadjusted and adjusted returns. The findings are worth interesting for the investors and policy makers.
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سید محسن الحکیم

سید محسن الحکیم
یہ سطریں زیر تحریر تھیں کہ عراق کے مجتہد اعظم آقائے سید محسن الحکیم کی وفات کی خبر ملی، وہ شیعوں کے سب سے بڑے مذہبی پیشوا اور اعلم کے منصب جلیل پر فائز تھے، مذہبی امور میں ان کا فیصلہ حرف آخر کا حکم رکھتا تھا، جس کے سامنے پوری شیعی دنیا سرتسلیم خم کرتی تھی، علمی حیثیت سے وہ دنیائے اسلام کے نامور علماء میں تھے اور سنیوں میں بھی عزت و احترام کی نظر سے دیکھے جاتے تھے، انھوں نے اپنے فرقہ کی بڑی مفید علمی و دینی خدمات انجام دی ہیں، اسی کے ساتھ وہ اتحاد اسلامی کے بھی قائل تھے اور شیعہ سنی اختلاف کو ناپسند کرتے تھے، اﷲ تعالیٰ ان کو اپنی رحمت و مغفرت سے سرفراز فرمائے۔
سنیوں کے یہاں اس قسم کا کوئی منصب نہیں ہے، جس کو پوری سنی دنیا ماننے پر مجبور ہو، اس کانتیجہ یہ ہے کہ ان میں ہر شخص مجتہد ہے اور جن کو نہ صرف دینی علوم سے کوئی واقفیت نہیں بلکہ مذہب سے بھی عملاً کوئی علاقہ نہیں، ان کو بھی اجتہاد کا دعویٰ ہے، چنانچہ آج کل ایسے بہت سے مجتہد اور مفسر قرآن ملیں گے جو عربی کی ابجد سے بھی واقف نہیں، ان کام یہ ہے کہ جو نیا قالب نظر آئے اسلام کو اس میں ڈھالنے کی کوشش کریں، ان کے اجتہاد کے عجیب و غریب نمونے آئے دن نظر آتے رہتے ہیں، اور اس تخریب کا نام انھوں نے اسلامی خدمت رکھا ہے، شیعوں کے نظام میں اگرچہ تنگی ہے، لیکن مذہبی ضبط و نظام کے نقطۂ نظر سے بہت مفید ہے۔ (شاہ معین الدین ندوی، جون ۱۹۷۰ء)

 

Frequency and Psychosocial Determinants of Gender Discrimination Regarding Food Distribution among Families

Due to male dominance in society as well as in households, the rights of females are ignored. Hence, there exists gender discrimination while giving food to family members which in turn results in poor health status for females. Therefore, it is important to explore the causes of this unequal distribution of food among family members Objective: To determine psychosocial factors causing gender discrimination regarding food distribution among families Methods: Data collected from fifty females aged 15-80 years, selected from the urban community using non-probability consecutive sampling, were used for analysis. Females with malnutrition, psychological disorders, with laparotomy and major surgery were excluded. Gender discrimination was assessed as males or male children were preferred for better and more food items like fresh food, meat, fruits, milk, dairy products and multivariate logistic regression analysis was done to see the impact selected factors on gender discrimination Results: The large family size (> 6 members) showed significantly higher odds of discrimination (OR=3.89; 95% CI= 1.03-15.26) than smaller families. The odds of food discrimination were 4 times more for the families, with males being earning hand (OR=4.57; 95% CI= 1.19-18.31). Similarly, there exist higher odds of gender discrimination in low-income families (OR=5.10; 95% CI= 1.18-23.87). While maternal education reduces the chances of food discrimination (OR=0.10; 95% CI= 0.02-0.42)  Conclusions: Psychosocial factors such as large family size, low monthly income, males being earning hand and maternal education were found to be associated with gender discrimination regarding food distribution among family members.

Studies on Dissolution and Prevention Effects of Hajrul Yahood, Sang Sarmahi, Phyllanthus Niruri on Calcium Containing Kidney Stones in Rats.

Nephrolithiasis has severe ramifications with respect to health and management cost. Current modalities of treatment though very effective in getting provisional relief from stones are not devoid of side effects and also fail to avert the recurrence, which is in fact the main concern of patients with kidney stones. Hajrul yahood, Phyllanthus niruri and Cystone have been used in folk medicine since ages and are well known for their lithotriptic and anti- urolithic properties. The present study was carried out at the animal house of Sindh Agriculture University Tando Jam to evaluate the litholytic and anti -urolithic effects of Hajrul yahood, Sang sarmahi, Phyllanthus niruri and cystone on glyoxylate induced nephrolithiatic rats. For this purpose, seventy eight male wistar rats were equally divided into thirteen groups of six rats each. Hajrul yahood, Sang sarmahi and Phyllanthus niruri were administered either alone or in combination of equal quantity of each by weight. Cystone given alone was also utilized as a standard drug to compare the effects of Hajrul Yahood, Sang Sarmahi and Phyllanthus Niruri on calcium oxalate kidney stones. Calcium oxalate crystallization was induced by intraperitoneal injections of Glyoxalate prior to start of the treatment in the litholytic groups and was administered along with the test drugs in the groups. At the completion of treatment period, serum samples from 42 rats in groups; and both the kidneys from all the experimental rats were recovered. Serum was analyzed for the activity of anti-oxidant enzymes superoxide dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GPX), catalase (CAT); and levels of calcium, magnesium, oxalate and creatinine. Right kidney was homogenized with phosphate buffer saline (PBS), and centrifuged. Supernatant thus obtained was analyzed for the levels of SOD, GPX, CAT, reduced glutathione (GSH) and malondialdehyde (MDA). The left kidney was fixed in Bouin liquid, embedded in paraffin, sectioned and stained with hematoxylin and eosin H&E for histological examination under polarized light microscope. Serum analysis results showed that the activity of antioxidant enzymes and magnesiumlevel in rat groups treated with cystone, combination, HY and PN were lower in the order given as against the negative controls, but were significantly higher than that of the positive controls (p<0.05). Serum calcium level was found to be in normal range in cystone, combination, HY and PN treated groups of rats, but it was lower than normal in positive controls. Both serum oxalate and creatinine levels were detected to be significantly lower in cystone, combination, HY and PN treated groups of rats as compared with positive controls. A similar comparison of the parameters measured in tissue samples revealed that antioxidant enzyme activities and reduced glutathione level were significantly enhanced in cystone, combination, HY, and PN treated groups of rats as against the positive controls. In contrast, tissue MDA levels were seen to be significantly lower in cystone, combination, HY and PN treated groups of rats than the positive controls. Histological findings of renal tissue sections were also consistent with the serum and tissue chemistries showing lesser damage to the kidney tissue and calcification in cystone, combination and HY treated groups of rats as against the positive controls. Cystone in comparison to combined treatment exhibited better nephro-protection against hyperoxaluria induced oxidative stress because of its increased antioxidant enzyme activities and increased glutathione and magnesium levels. In conclusion, present study has demonstrated the litholytic,and nephroprotective effects of cystone, HY and PN due to their high antioxidant capacity to inhibit lipid peroxidation in glyoxylate induced hyperoxaluric rats and also due to their ability to reduce oxalate synthesis. Sang sarmahi however, in contrast to the general notion has failed to exhibit any significant litholytic and anti urolithic effects at the dose used in present study.