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Predicting Dengue Outbreak in a Metropolitan City

Thesis Info

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Author

Qureshi, Ejaz Mahmood Ahmad

Program

PhD

Institute

Government College University

City

Lahore

Province

Punjab

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2019

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Environmental Sciences

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/12263/1/Ejaz%20Mahmood%20Ahmad%20Qureshi_Env%20Sci_2019_GCU%28L%29_PRR.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676724941678

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Dengue, an arboviral disease has become endemic in South East Asia since the last two to three decades. The research information presented in this thesis was conducted in the metropolitan city of Lahore, Pakistan, from 2011 to 2013. The research was focused on entomological, viral and epidemiological surveillance of dengue, the mosquito vector responsible for transmission of dengue viruses being Aedes aegypti (Ae. aegypti). Indoor entomological surveillance was carried out on the basis of Ovitrap Index (OI) for larval and Per Man Hour Density (PMHD) for adult vectors while Outdoors entomological surveillance was done by OI in eight parks in the city of Lahore, exhibiting different ecological/environmental factors. Viral surveillance in adult vectors to find out their infectivity was based on Minimum Infection Rate (MIR). The study area was five randomly selected Union Councils (UCs) from each of the nine towns and one Cantonment Board (CB) of the city. In addition to that, Knowledge, attitude and practices (KAP) study was carried out to assess the community perception regarding dengue epidemic. Correlation between dengue patients and OI, PMHD, MIR and climatic conditions (temperature, humidity and rainfall) was established by using statistical software, SPSS, version 19, while Panel Data Analysis was carried out for dengue prediction by Fixed Effect (FE), Random Effect (RE) Model and Hausman Test, using STATA software, version 11. The survey of indoor larval density revealed that OI, PMHD and MIR values were maximum in late rainy season (33-38 week) in 2011, whereas in 2012 these values were maximum in early post rainy season (38-45 week), except for MIR. However, in 2013, maximum values were obtained in early post rainy season. On the other hand, minimum OI, PMHD and MIR were recorded in late post rainy season (45-52 week) for all the three years. Outdoor Entomological Surveillance in parks revealed that maximum OI was in late rainy season and minimum in late post rainy season, for the years 2011, 2012 and 2013. MIR in adult mosquitoes was higher than human beings, which suggests that mosquitoes may serve as a mode for maintenance of the virus and when levels of immunity to a certain serotype decreases, dengue infection may emerge. In parks, ovitraps were positive where placed close to water channels, shades and residences. Epidemiological survey revealed that the patients in the age range of 31- 45 years were the most in early post-rainy season, followed by late rainy season in all towns. Infected males were almost twice in number than females. Majority of the patients were laborers and professionals, followed by students and housewives. Educational status of a majority of the patients was up to primary or secondary school level, while very few were college graduates. Monthly income of majority of the patients was < 15000 rupees. Majority of the respondents had fair knowledge concerning the dengue vector and knew that the fever was transmitted by and is not contagious. Correlations between entomological surveillance indices (OI, PMHD, MIR) and dengue patients were significant at p value of 0.01, while correlation of dengue patients with climatic factors (temperature, humidity and rainfall) was mostly insignificant at pvalue level of 0.01. Knowledge, Attitude and Practices of dengue disease, its transmission and control were positively associated with age, education level, marital status and occupation. Status of esknowledge was found to have a significant relationship with age (F = 7.57, p 0.001), gender (F = 4.14, p < 0.01),occupation (F = 9.01, p < 0.001), transmission of viruses (F = 5.29, p < 0.001), breeding sites of the mosquito (F = 4.47, p < 0.01), time of mosquito biting (F = 4.62, p < 0.001), and measures to be adopted for preventing mosquito bites (F = 2.25, p < 0.05). Significant relationship (p < 0.001) was also discovered in the attitude and practices of people in adopting preventive measures for dengue. The study revealed that all variables, such as PMHD, relative humidity and rainfall had a significant effect (z value < 0.1), whereas temperature and MIR had no impact (z value > 0.1) on dengue patients. It is concluded from the results of FE model that if PMHD, MIR, temperature and relative humidity increase by 10 units, the number of dengue patients will increase by the factor of 4.22, 9.26, 2.80 and 5.8, respectively, whereas if rainfall increases by 10 mm, number of dengue patients would decrease by 1 in number. Results of RE model showed that if PMHD, MIR, temperature and relative humidity is increased by 10 units, number of dengue patients will respectively increase by 4.01, 15.88, 3.10. and 5.73, while if rainfall is increased by 10 mm, number of dengue patients would decrease by -1.01. This study provided the early prediction model which could be made part of an early warning system for the prevention of dengue outbreak. For comprehensive control and prevention of dengue, it is also recommended that information about all aspects of disease in general and surveillance in particular should be included in curricula at the school and college level. Additional entomological/ epidemiological Indices/parameters should be added to the prevailingmethods to increase the effectiveness of dengue vector surveillance.
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در عدالتِ علے

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خواتین کی دینی تعلیم: روایت، مسائل اور عصری تحدیات

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An Economic Analysis of Institutional Reforms in Irrigation Sector in Punjab Pakistan

Agriculture is crucial to Pakistan‘s economy and irrigation is the lifeblood of agriculture. The irrigation system of Pakistan is the largest integrated irrigation network in the world. The state managed surface irrigation in Punjab had not been performing well and was deteriorating day by day due to financial, managerial and socio-political factors. Keeping in view the above discussed problems, the World Bank proposed commercialization and privatizations of the irrigation system as the only choice for rehabilitation. However after a series of negotiations, the government of Pakistan agreed upon institutional reforms in water sector of the Punjab. Consequently, in 1997, Pakistan‘s provincial assemblies passed bills to implement institutional reforms in the country‘s irrigation sector. In the province of Punjab, institutional reforms have been introduced in the Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) East irrigation system of the Punjab as a pilot project through PIDA Act of 1997. Under these reforms, management at secondary canal level (distributaries) has been handed over to the Farmers Organizations FOs). The present study was designed to assess the effectiveness of ongoing irrigation reforms in terms of improving water delivery, operation and maintenance (O&M) of irrigation system, equity in water distribution and overall management of irrigation system. It also envisaged the early effects/ impacts of irrigation reforms on overall agricultural productivity and farm income. A well represented sample size of 30 distributaries and 360 farm households was selected for data collection. A multistage sampling technique was used for sample selection. The study employed two level analysis. At first level, assessment of reforms in LCC East (Reform Area) was made on the basis of information from the secondary sources taking into account ―Before and After‖ reform scenario. At second level, assessment of reforms was carried out on the basis of primary data collected at farm household level. Quantitative analysis was conducted by making comparison of set of well established indicators developed by secondary information at distributary level to determine the impact of irrigation reforms on water charges (Aabiana) collection, operation and maintenance of the system, delivery performance ratio (DPR) at head and tail of the distributaries etc. A single equation model was used to capture the impact of irrigation reforms on farm income and productivity. Economic xiv Inefficiency model was also estimated to determine the negative impact of irrigation reforms on inefficiency of the respondents. The results of the study based on comparison of indicators from primary data showed that there was an increase in the crop yields. On an overall basis, all the major crops (wheat, sugarcane and rice) showed an increasing trend in yields. Wheat yield increased by 10 percent, sugarcane by 5 percent and rice by 13 percent respectively. Average gross margin of wheat, sugarcane and rice increased by 6 percent, 38 percent and 43 percent respectively in post reform period. The results of the study showed that cost of production of major crops reduced after reform process. While estimating regression model, Average gross value Product (GVP/acre) of crops (in real prices) was taken as dependent variable to capture the effect of reform process, location of the farm along the distributary and important components of variable cost of production. Similarly, average yield per acre of crops was taken as dependent variable to determine the impact of reform process. The results of the regression model for wheat, sugarcane and rice yield showed that F-Value was 7.08, 6.6 and 5.5 respectively, showing that over models were significant at less than 5 percent significance level. For the estimation of stochastic frontier production function and inefficiency effect model Cobb-Douglas form of production function and translog were used. The key finding of the Inefficiency Effects Model was that the dummy for reforms had negative impact on inefficiency effect for all the crops. The results of the study showed that Aabiana collection increased from 42 percent to 62 percent in post reform period. The study also showed that delivery performance ratio at the tail of the distributary increased after introduction of reform process in the province of Punjab. It was concluded that that the institutional reforms in the irrigation sector have positive impacts on the yield and productivity of the farmers for all the major crops. It was also evident that the reforms also have significant impact on the farms located at the tail clusters of the distributaries.