We developed stochastic time series models such as ARMA( p,q), non- seasonal ARIMA, seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) and MTM models to simulate and forecast hourly averaged wind speed sequences on twenty year data ,.i.e, 1985-2004 of Quetta, Pakistan. Stochastic Time Series Models take into account several basic features of wind speed including autocorrelation, non-Gaussian distribution and non-stationarity. The positive correlation between consecutive wind speed observations is taken into account by fitting ARMA process to wind speed data. The data are normalized to make their distributions approximately Gaussian and standardized to remove scattering of transformed data (stationary,.i.e., without chaos).Diurnal variations has been taken into account to observe forecasts and its dependence on lead times. We find the ARMA (p,q) model suitable for prediction interval and probability forecasts. But the MTM model is relatively better as a simulator compared to ARMA modeling. The suitability of ARMA (p,q) model for both long range (1-6 hours) and short range (1-2 hours) indicates that forecast values are the deciding components for an appropriate wind energy conversion systems, WECS. ARMA processes work with non-stationary (chaotic) data. Non-seasonal ARIMA models and the prediction equations for each month and indeed for each season of a twenty year wind data are presented. The seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) and its prediction equations for each month of a twenty year data are also studied. With non- stationarity or chaos in data, stochastic simulator in the ARIMA processes does not effectively work although its prediction equations are good enough to forecast relatively short range reliable values. Various statistical techniques are used on twenty five years, .i.e., 1980-2004 data of average humidity, rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The relationships to regression analysis time series (RATS) are developed for determining the overall trend of these climate parameters on the basis of which forecast models can be corrected and modified. We followed the coefficient of determination,.i.e., a measure of goodness of fit, to our polynomial regression analysis time series (PRATS). The correlation to multiple linear regression (MLR) and multiple linear regression analysis time series (MLRATS) are also developed from deciphering the interdependence of weather parameters. We used Spearman’s rank correlation and Goldfeld-Quandt tests to check the uniformity or non uniformity of variances in our fit to polynomial regression (PR). The Breusch-Pagan test was applied to MLR and MLRATS, respectively which yielded homoscedasticity (uniformity of variances in the distribution of data). We also employed Bartlett’s test for homogeneity of variances on a twenty five years data of rainfall and humidity, respectively which showed that the variances in rainfall data are not homogenous while in case of humidity, are homogenous. Our results on regression and regression analysis time series show the best fit to prediction modeling on climatic data of Quetta, Pakistan. We performed design free fuzzy logic (FL) time series prediction modeling on a twenty year wind data, .i.e., 1985-2004 for Quetta, Pakistan. We followed design free fuzzy logic and obtained prediction of hourly wind data for spring (February, March and April). Non-stationarity or random walk in wind data exists but it does not influence prediction. Mackey Glass (MG) simulation of wind data indicated chaos or non periodicity. Moreover, stable attractors are observed in MG-time series, the origin of which is yet unknown. The attractors seen in MG simulation do not influence FL time series prediction. We studied singleton and non-singleton type-1 back propagation (BP) designed sixteen rule fuzzy logic system (FLS) on hourly averaged wind data of twenty years ,.i.e., 1985-2004. We found that the BP designed 16 rule non-singleton-type-1 FLS is relatively a better forecaster than singleton-type-1.We find hidden or unraveled uncertainties such as non-stationarity and stable attractors. These uncertainties make the data chaotic. The criterion of selecting root mean square error (RMSE) for establishing comparison is not suitable for chaotic data. Non-stationarity in the data can be properly handled with non- singleton type-1 FLS, therefore, there appears no reason to use a type-2 FLS. The stable attractors and non-stationarity in our data do not affect the predicted values as confirmed by Mackey Glass simulation. The chaos can be effectively resolved through parallel structure fuzzy system (PSFS) which exploits time-delays.. A variety of Artificial Neural Network models for prediction of hourly wind speed (which a few hours in advance is required to ensure efficient utilization of wind energy systems) at Quetta, Pakistan is studied and the results are compared. Satisfactory results are obtained with Feed Forward Back Propagation Neural Networks (FFBPNN). An empirical relationship is developed which shows the Gaussian profile for the number of neurons which varies with lag inputs, .i.e., nn = k exp(-il2) where nn shows the number of neurons, il the lag inputs, and k the sloping ratio. Feed Forward Neural Networks (FFNNs) can be corrected with optimization of empirical relationship for simulators followed by back propagation technique. The disadvantages of FFNNs comprise of heavy computational requirements, and non-existence of Artificial Neural Network(ANN) design methodologies for deciding the value of the learning rate and momentum. Neural Network (NN) modeling is not suitable for chaotic data characterized by randomness and non-stationarity.
حدود و قصاص سے متعلق شرعی قوانین موجود ہیں اور دنیا ان کے ثمرات سے مستفید ہو تی رہی ہے کیونکہ یہی قوانین صدرِ اسلام میں نافذ ہوئے ۔ بنو امیہ ، بنوعباس ، دولتِ فاطمیہ سے لے کر خلافت عثمانیہ تک اور ہندوستان میں بھی مغلوں نے انہیں قوانین کے ذریعے دنیا کو امن و امان فراہم کیا۔ مصنف اس بات کا اعتراف کرتا ہے کہ حدودوقصاص اور دیگر اسلامی قوانین کی تنفیذ کے لیے ریاست کا ڈھانچہ اسلامی و فلاحی ہو ۔ مسلمانوں کے اجتماعی نظام کی اصل اساس امرھم شورٰ ی بینھم ہی ہے اس لیے ان کے امراء و حکام کا انتخاب اور حکومت و امارت کا انعقاد مشورے سے ہی ہو۔ ریاست کے عاملین اور ججوں کا تقرر اسلامی طریقے کے مطابق ہو ۔ عاملین و ججوں میں یہ تمام خصوصیات پائی جاتی ہوں کہ وہ مسلمان ، آزاد ، عادل ، پاکدامن، بردبار ، ماقبل کے حالات سے باخبر ، عقل مند حضرات سے مشاورت کرنےوالے اور اللہ تعالیٰ کی راہ میں کسی ملامت کرنےوالے کی ملامت سے نہ ڈرنے والے ہوں ۔عدلیہ کے سامنے مقدمات پیش کر نے والے پولیس افسران ایماندار ہوں،تاکہ معاشرے میں نظم وضبط قائم کرسکیں ، قانون کو لاگو کر سکیں ، مظلوم کو انصاف دلوا سکیں اور مقدمات کے اندراج سے عدالت مجاز میں مقد مہ کے فیصلے تک وہ قانون اور مظلوم کا ساتھ دیں۔ وکلاءآزاد اور صحیح فیصلہ کرنے میں عدلیہ کی معاونت کریں۔ ریاست کے انتظام کو چلانے کےلیے چاہے وہ امیر المسلمین ہو ، جج ہو ، پولیس افسر ، وکیل ، سرحد کی حفاظت کرنے والا فوجی ان سب کی صحیح معنوں میں تربیت کےلیے اسلامی نظام تعلیم کا بندوبست ہونا ضروری ہے اور نظام تعلیم کے مقاصد خالصتاً اسلامی فلسفہ حیات سے اخذ کیے گئے ہوں ، پڑھنے...
Journalism in Pakistan has passed through successive phases of trials and tribulations. The crises journalism had to undergo since independence had their origin both in the state policies as well as the authoritarianism embedded in the society. The book under review does not claim to divulge into the societal challenges which have emerged more visibly in the last three or four decades, especially, in the context of the spread of religious extremism and ethnic and other types of militancy in the society. Studies need to be done on these aspects as well as the external factors that have had impact on the growth and the content of media. The latter has come in the garb of globalization that has greatly affected the local environment and has come to strongly affect, if not directly dictate, what the media should encompass and present. Leaving the societal and global aspects aside, the role of the state and the successive governments has a lot to offer to be written about by way of what the media has endured in the last seventy plus years. It doesn’t need too much of pondering to conclude that the major pressures over media have come from the governments who, by and large, had been quite at unease with independent flow of information, and criticism of their policies. And, unfortunately, this process had begun right after Independence when newspapers’ and periodicals’ independent voice was tried to be silenced, and they were pressurized to toe the official line with respect to domestic and foreign policies. Pakistan’s independent journey, unfortunately, began with the imposition of black laws which prohibited dissent and curtailed freedom of expression in the strongest possible manner.
Unwise use of herbicides has resulted in environmental and health problems not only for human beings and also for animals but it also caused some weed species to dominate fields due to resistance development against herbicides. Among the alternate ways of weed management in field crops application of allelopathy has shown tremendous scope in agricultural pest management. Different sowing methods and planting times has varying impact on the associated weeds. Studies on dynamics of weed flora and its management by allelopathy in wheat at varying sowing times planted by different methods were conducted at the Agronomic Research Area, Department of Agronomy, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan during 2008-09 and 2009-10. In the first experiment, weed flora under different sowing methods and planting dates was investigated. In second experiment allelopathic plant water extracts (PWE) of sorghum, sunflower and mulberry in combination with reduced doses of a herbicide in different sowing methods was evaluated. Whereas in third experiment, plant water extracts used in the second experiment in combination with reduced doses of a herbicide under different planting methods were assessed. Weed flora mainly consisted of Chenopodium album L. and Phalaris minor L., while few plants of Fumaria parviflora L., Avena fatua L., and Anagallis arvenses L. were also observed. It is noted that weeds if not controlled, can cause 60-66% yield losses in wheat. Maximum wheat productivity and net returns were obtained from wheat sown at November 15 on beds. Allelopathic PWE in combination with 1/3 rd dose of herbicide provided as effective weed control as was achieved from label dose of herbicide during 2008-09 and 2009-10 which caused substantial yield increase (54%), suggesting that herbicide dose could be reduced by 67%. For achieving eco-friendly weed control and maximum productivity allelopathic PWE combined with 1/3 rd dose of herbicide could be applied in wheat planted on beds at November 15.