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Recent Trends in Time Series Modeling and Prediction of Wind Data: Statistical and Fuzzy Reasoning Approach

Thesis Info

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External Link

Author

Jafri, Yasmin Zahra

Program

PhD

Institute

University of Balochistan

City

Quetta

Province

Balochistan

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2004

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Statistics

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/handle/123456789/3626

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676724965083

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We developed stochastic time series models such as ARMA( p,q), non- seasonal ARIMA, seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) and MTM models to simulate and forecast hourly averaged wind speed sequences on twenty year data ,.i.e, 1985-2004 of Quetta, Pakistan. Stochastic Time Series Models take into account several basic features of wind speed including autocorrelation, non-Gaussian distribution and non-stationarity. The positive correlation between consecutive wind speed observations is taken into account by fitting ARMA process to wind speed data. The data are normalized to make their distributions approximately Gaussian and standardized to remove scattering of transformed data (stationary,.i.e., without chaos).Diurnal variations has been taken into account to observe forecasts and its dependence on lead times. We find the ARMA (p,q) model suitable for prediction interval and probability forecasts. But the MTM model is relatively better as a simulator compared to ARMA modeling. The suitability of ARMA (p,q) model for both long range (1-6 hours) and short range (1-2 hours) indicates that forecast values are the deciding components for an appropriate wind energy conversion systems, WECS. ARMA processes work with non-stationary (chaotic) data. Non-seasonal ARIMA models and the prediction equations for each month and indeed for each season of a twenty year wind data are presented. The seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) and its prediction equations for each month of a twenty year data are also studied. With non- stationarity or chaos in data, stochastic simulator in the ARIMA processes does not effectively work although its prediction equations are good enough to forecast relatively short range reliable values. Various statistical techniques are used on twenty five years, .i.e., 1980-2004 data of average humidity, rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The relationships to regression analysis time series (RATS) are developed for determining the overall trend of these climate parameters on the basis of which forecast models can be corrected and modified. We followed the coefficient of determination,.i.e., a measure of goodness of fit, to our polynomial regression analysis time series (PRATS). The correlation to multiple linear regression (MLR) and multiple linear regression analysis time series (MLRATS) are also developed from deciphering the interdependence of weather parameters. We used Spearman’s rank correlation and Goldfeld-Quandt tests to check the uniformity or non uniformity of variances in our fit to polynomial regression (PR). The Breusch-Pagan test was applied to MLR and MLRATS, respectively which yielded homoscedasticity (uniformity of variances in the distribution of data). We also employed Bartlett’s test for homogeneity of variances on a twenty five years data of rainfall and humidity, respectively which showed that the variances in rainfall data are not homogenous while in case of humidity, are homogenous. Our results on regression and regression analysis time series show the best fit to prediction modeling on climatic data of Quetta, Pakistan. We performed design free fuzzy logic (FL) time series prediction modeling on a twenty year wind data, .i.e., 1985-2004 for Quetta, Pakistan. We followed design free fuzzy logic and obtained prediction of hourly wind data for spring (February, March and April). Non-stationarity or random walk in wind data exists but it does not influence prediction. Mackey Glass (MG) simulation of wind data indicated chaos or non periodicity. Moreover, stable attractors are observed in MG-time series, the origin of which is yet unknown. The attractors seen in MG simulation do not influence FL time series prediction. We studied singleton and non-singleton type-1 back propagation (BP) designed sixteen rule fuzzy logic system (FLS) on hourly averaged wind data of twenty years ,.i.e., 1985-2004. We found that the BP designed 16 rule non-singleton-type-1 FLS is relatively a better forecaster than singleton-type-1.We find hidden or unraveled uncertainties such as non-stationarity and stable attractors. These uncertainties make the data chaotic. The criterion of selecting root mean square error (RMSE) for establishing comparison is not suitable for chaotic data. Non-stationarity in the data can be properly handled with non- singleton type-1 FLS, therefore, there appears no reason to use a type-2 FLS. The stable attractors and non-stationarity in our data do not affect the predicted values as confirmed by Mackey Glass simulation. The chaos can be effectively resolved through parallel structure fuzzy system (PSFS) which exploits time-delays.. A variety of Artificial Neural Network models for prediction of hourly wind speed (which a few hours in advance is required to ensure efficient utilization of wind energy systems) at Quetta, Pakistan is studied and the results are compared. Satisfactory results are obtained with Feed Forward Back Propagation Neural Networks (FFBPNN). An empirical relationship is developed which shows the Gaussian profile for the number of neurons which varies with lag inputs, .i.e., nn = k exp(-il2) where nn shows the number of neurons, il the lag inputs, and k the sloping ratio. Feed Forward Neural Networks (FFNNs) can be corrected with optimization of empirical relationship for simulators followed by back propagation technique. The disadvantages of FFNNs comprise of heavy computational requirements, and non-existence of Artificial Neural Network(ANN) design methodologies for deciding the value of the learning rate and momentum. Neural Network (NN) modeling is not suitable for chaotic data characterized by randomness and non-stationarity.
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نواب سید محمد علی حسن خان

ایک نواب عالم کی وفات
ہندوستان کے ان پرانے مسلمان خاندانوں میں سے جو شرافت نسب کے ساتھ علم اور دولت دونوں کے جامع ہیں، اب خال خال گھرانے رہ گئے ہیں، انہیں میں سے ایک والا جاہ نواب سید صدیق حسن خان مرحوم کا خاندان تھا، جن کے چھوٹے صاحبزادہ صفی الدولہ حسام الملک شمس العلماء نواب سید محمد علی حسن خان مرحوم نے ۱۹؍ نومبر ۱۹۳۶؁ء مطابق، ۳؍ رمضان المبارک ۱۳۵۵؁ھ کی صبح کو اپنی کوٹھی بھوپال ہاؤ س لال باغ لکھنؤ میں بہتر برس کی عمر میں وفات پائی، افسوس ہے کہ ایک پرانے خاندان کے فضل و کمال اور جاہ و جلال کی یادگار آج مٹ گئی۔
مرحوم ان لوگوں میں تھے جن کی آنکھوں نے مسلمانوں کے علمی و تعلیمی، سیاسی و تمدنی انقلاب کے مناظر دیکھے، وہ پیدا تو ایک ’’کنزرویٹو‘‘ گھرانے میں ہوئے اور اسی ماحول میں تعلیم و تربیت پائی، لیکن فطرت کی طرف سے وہ ایک اثر پذیر اور حساس دل لائے تھے، باوجود اس کے کہ وہ بھوپال میں پیدا ہوئے جہاں حددرجہ قدامت کی حکومت اور سطوت تھی اور ممکن نہ تھا کہ نورمحل میں نئی روشنی کی ایک کرن بھی پہنچ سکے، مگر استعداد طبع دیکھئے کہ کہ خود بخود ادھر طبیعت کا میلان ہوا، سرسید کی جدید تعلیمی تحریک میں اور پھر ندوۃ العلماء کی مذہبی تحریک میں شریک ہوئے اور ہر قسم کی جانی و مالی خدمتیں انجام دیں، مدت تک ندوہ کے اعزازی ناظم رہے، دارالمصنفین کے اساسی ارکان میں تھے اور لکھنؤ کی ہر سنجیدہ تحریک میں ان کا نام سرفہرست رہتا تھا۔
وہ عربی زبان کے عالم، فارسی زبان کے ماہر اور اردو کے مشّاق اہل قلم تھے، فارسی شعر و سخن اور محاورات پر ان کو عبور کامل حاصل تھا، فارسی کا مشکل سے کوئی اچھا شعر ہوگا...

Nigerian Politics and Politics in Nigeria: A Contemplation of Islamic Political Thought in Nigeria

Democracy in Nigeria is characterised by corruption, irregularities and injustice. The level of political hostility in the country has resulted in loss of lives and properties and as a result, there have been hindrances to peace and national development to prevail in Nigeria. Hence, the ugly political developments have generated a lot of concerns and questions such as what are the causes of the political unrest in Nigeria? Is democracy really paying off as a political system in Nigeria?  What has been the result of democracy in Nigeria?  Can there be a better political system in Nigeria? If so, can Islamic political system fulfil the longing of Nigerians? Answers to these questions shall form the body of this research. The research discovers the absence of fairness in the electoral process and bad governance in Nigeria. This research reveals the flaws in effectiveness of democracy as a system of government in Nigeria. It proposes adopting an alternative model of governance. Lastly, this research contemplates the Islamic political model for a better Nigeria.

Determinants of Rural Household Income for Livelihood in Northern-Pakistan

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