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The Role of Internal and External Stocks in Business Cycle Fluctuation in Low and Upper Middle Income Countries

Thesis Info

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Author

Kousar, Shazia

Program

PhD

Institute

The Superior College

City

Lahore

Province

Punjab

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2018

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Economics

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/9886/1/Shazia%20Kousar_Eco_2018_SC_Main%20part.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676725129037

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This studyexamines the role of internal and external shocks in business cycle fluctuation in 25 low income countries (LICs) and 17 upper middle income countries (UMICs) for the period of 1960Q1 to 2014Q4. Data for the study were obtained from the International Financial Statistics, the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development national accounts data file for selected LICs and UMICs. The study formulates a vector autoregression (VAR) model and uses quarterly time series data to investigate the impact of internal and external shocks on business cycle fluctuations. The objectives of the study are: First, to examine what type of relationship exists between internal and external shocks and business cycle fluctuations. Second, study finds the relative contribution of internal and external shocks to business cycle fluctuations. Third, study examines causality among time series in VAR system. The fourth is to forecast responsiveness of economic fluctuation to internal and external shocks for 10 forthcoming quarters. The study estimates four models to examine the role of internal and external shocks in business cycle fluctuations in case of LICs and UMICs. In the first three models – with three different proxies of financial development – the study measures the contribution of internal shocks in business cycle fluctuation; the fourth model measures the influence of external shocks to explain business cycle fluctuations. The study introduces financial development, monetary policy and household savings as internal sources and foreign aid, personal remittances, trade openness and climate change as external sources which can affect business cycle fluctuations. The results indicate that financial development (M2, DCB) has a negative and significant association with business cycle fluctuation in the long run in LICs and DCP has positive and significant long run 2 association with economic fluctuation while it has insignificant relationship with business cycle fluctuations in the case of UMICs. Moreover, household savings positively and significantly affect macroeconomic fluctuation in the long run in LICs while in the case of UMICs; household savings are negatively associated with macroeconomic fluctuation in the long run. Furthermore, in LICs monetary policy stabilizes economic fluctuation by lowering lending interest rate while in case of UMICs contractionary monetary policy stabilizes economic fluctuation. Results also indicate that if any adverse shock to internal and external sources of fluctuations causes the economy to deviate from its equilibrium path, the adjustment process is more rapid in LICs as compared to UMICs. In the case of external sources of fluctuation, the study found that foreign aid and personal remittances negatively and significantly affect economic fluctuation while trade openness and climate change positively affect economic fluctuations in the long run in the case of LICs. However, in the case of UMICs, only trade openness plays a positive and significant role in economic fluctuations while all other external shocks have insignificant association with business cycle fluctuations. The study also found that in LICS the relative contribution of external sources to economic fluctuation is greater than the contribution of internal sources, whereas in UMICs, internal sources contribute more to economic fluctuation than external sources. The study uses a generalized impulse response function to predict the responsiveness of economic fluctuation against one standard deviation to internal and external sources for future 10 quarters. The results of short-run Granger causality indicate that in LICs, supply of money and domestic credit by banks cause economic fluctuations in the short run while in the case of UMICs, household savings, interest rate and trade openness cause economic fluctuation in the short run. 3 The results of this study may help policymakers to take decisions about financial and real sector development to keep the economy on a certain trend growth path. Moreover, this study will benefit and help future researchers by providing data and information regarding an active set of internal sources- financial development, monetary policy, household savings- that are manageable by a policymaker and a set of external sources- foreign aid, personal remittances, trade openness and climate change - on which policymakers can have little control. Besides, it would also help researchers in the field of banking and economics in further understanding of making use of the VAR framework to find causality dimensions and establish a point of direction for the policymakers with concrete evidence. The study also contributes to the literature by establishing causal relationship between internal and external shocks and business cycle fluctuations.
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كلمة الشكر و التقدیر

 

كلمة الشكر و التقدیر

 الحمد ﷲ ربّ العالمین والصلاۃ والسلام علیٰ أشرف الأنبیاء والمرسلین نبینا وحبیبنا محمد النبي الصادق الأمین وعلی آلہِ وأصحابہِ وأزواجہِ والتابعین ومن تبعھم بإحسان إلی یومِ الدِّین،......... أما بعد:

 مع شکري وتقدیري واحترامي العظيم أسطر ھذہِ الکلمات المتواضعۃ لأساتذتي الذین ساھموا معي لإنجاز ھذا العمل۔

 أولاً، بعد اﷲ سبحانہ وتعالی یشرفني ویسعدني أن أقدم الشکر الجزیل إلی الشخص المثالي صاحب العزۃ والمقامۃ وصاحب المکانۃ المرموقۃ والمرتبۃ العالیۃ العالم الكبير والفاضل والإنسان النبيل الأستاذ الدکتور سلیم طارق خان المحترم رئیس الجامعۃ(سابقاً)، الجامعۃ الإسلامیہ ببھاولفور وهوكان المشرف علی رسالتي(رسالة الدكتوراة) وهو شعر نازك الملائكة وبروين شاكر(دراسة مقارنة)، ولو لا فضلہ وإحسانہ ومعاونتہ لي بعد اﷲ سبحانہ وتعالی لما استطعت أن أنجز ھذا العمل ، لقد استفدتُ من علمہِ وإرشاداتہِ وخبراتہِ في کل خطوۃ من الخطوات وفي کل لحظۃ من اللحظات لصالح ھذا الكتاب۔ فھو الإنسان الذي یستحق کل التقدیر وقد شجعني لكتابة وطبع هذا الكتاب وأدعو لہ من ﷲ عزوجل أن یعطیہِ المزید من التقدم والنجاح في الدارین، و قد حصل سيادتهُ على المناصب العالية، رئيس قسم اللغة العربية (سابقاً)، وعميد الكلية (سابقاً)، ثم رئيس الجامعة الإسلامية ببهاولفور(سابقاً)، ولسيادتهِ الكثير من المؤلفات والمقالات وقدَّم الكثير من الخدمات للعلم واللغة العربية.

 كما يشرفني ويسعدني ان أقدم بكل إحترامي وتقديري خالص الشكر والتقدير لصاحب المكانة العالية للعالم الجليل والأستاذ الكبير والإنسان العظيم الذي كلهُ عِلم وخبرة وتواضع وله مكانة مرموقة بين العلم والعلماء وفضيلته قام بدراسة ومراجعة الكتاب وأضاف الكثير من أفكاره وكلماته العظيمة في المقدمة و أيضاً قام فضيلته بتقديم التقريظ الممتاز، فسيادته قام بإعطاء الوقت الكافي لكتابي المتواضع ولا أستطيع أُلخص جُهودهُ العظيمة في أسطر قليلة، وهو الأستاذ الفاضل الدكتور المحترم إبراهيم محمد إبراهيم السيد من مواليد دولة المصر العربية مصري الجنسية والحاصل على الدكتوراه في اللغة...

نبی کریم ﷺ کا مہنج اصلاحی مکی دور کے تناظر میں

Before the prophecy of Prophet (S. A. W) the overall state of Arabs was so spoilt that even it was impossible for pedagogue and rectifier to show them the right path because it was not merely the matter of rectification of faith or preaching of right path neither to make them get rid of false beliefs nor to ameliorate the society. For the fulfilment of such type of rectification the preachers and guides are always there in the society and the reparation continues or carries on. The real muddle was to eliminate the arrogance and detrimental idolism which was so incessant generation to generation in the long run that the preaching and teaching of Prophet and the endeavor of guides were ineffective for them. It was the need of time to establish such type of shelter in which people of world could refuge in it. The remedy of this issue to bring into existence such type of human who was entirely different from the primitive human being. So Holy prophet (S. A. W) came as reformist. There are many golden aspects of prophet’s (S. A. W) reformation in a society, Makk฀ life is also one of them. It is not only changed and revolutionized the whole of the human history but also changed political, social and moral scenario of world. Methodology which our Holy prophet adopted it was the first Methodology that respected and valued human wisdom along with being on right path. In this article the same view point has been discussed. The following are the main points: 1. Preacher’s conformity in words and deeds. 2. Clear mandate to set the target. 3. Perseverance to achieve the set goal. 4. The best policy for the betterment of society. 5. The key points for the leadership.

Mechanistic Studies of Thermal Behavior of Certain Polymeric Systems With Additives

The present work deals with the pyrolytical studies of nine systems, i.e., two polymers [poly(methyl methacrylate) and poly(vinyl acetate)] and one copolymer [(poly(S-co-MMA)] blended with three inorganic additives, namely, aluminum tribromide, phosphorus tribromide and tin tetrachloride. Each polymeric/copolymeric substance is cast in the form of film (from common solvent) with each additive to get binary system such as PMMA-AlBr3, P(S-co- MMA)-AlBr3, PVAc-AlBr3, etc. The interest is based on the retardance of flammability, thermal stability, alteration in degradation mechanism, etc. of organic materials in the presence of inorganic species. The first chapter details the historical use of polymers, their wear and tear under the influence of different conditions, i.e., UV, g-radiations, oxygen, biological agents, heat, etc. Major emphasis is laid on the effects of heat and the reactions involved during the deterioration. The role of additives in imparting stability or otherwise is briefly described. Literature review is given in second chapter which includes the summary of the work published by various scientists on the subject of thermal degradation of polymers/copolymers alone as well as in the presence of additives over a long span of time. The polymers/copolymer selected for current investigations get major share of the review. In the third chapter, aims and objectives of the present research are included. Furthermore, the incentives and motivation for the work conducted are presented along with the plans and strategies devised. Experimental portion, chapter 4, consists of purification procedures for solvents, the preparatory methods for polymers, copolymers and additives, sample preparation techniques for flammability test, set-up designed for the pyrolysis of the systems explored and the instrumental techniques employed for the characterizations. All results gleaned from instrumentation, viz., TG-DTG-DTA, IR, GC-MS, flammability, about the binary systems are listed in chapter 5. Tabulated findings are available including activation energies and order of reactions. Chapter 6 discusses the mutual thermal behavior of PMMA and AlBr3, PBr3, SnCl4 in each other‟s presence. The three systems start degrading at lower temperatures when compared with T0 (temperature corresponding to first weight-loss) of PMMA. In the case of PMMA-AlBr3, T0 is lower than the T0 of the additive. Despite early destabilizations, stabilization zones (in terms of temperature) and other factors promoting stability are identified. A number of new products have evolved in all cases which provide reasons to believe that chemical interaction has taken place and the path of polymer degradation appears modified. PMMA-PBr3 blend reveals that phosphorus is incorporated in the backbone of PMMA during the course of degradation. Phosphorus also interacts with carbonyl oxygens of PMMA pendent groups in a similar fashion as is observed for Al (from AlBr3) and Sn (from SnCl4), however, it cannot be termed as „co-ordination‟ or „complexation‟ as observed for Sn in PMMA-SnCl4 system. Not only the positively charged parts of the additives, i.e., Al, P and Sn interact with the pendent groups and backbone of the polymer but the negatively charged parts (Br and Cl) also form bonds after the partial or complete removal of pendent groups. In other instances, they also replace the methyls attached to backbone carbons. The flammability parameter indicates the effectiveness of all the additives which markedly lower the burning rate of PMMA. Degradation mechanisms are proposed on the basis of gathered data and products identified. Monomer is not the major product in the studies undertaken presently. The same chapter, (6), explains the thermal behavior of P(S-co-MMA) in the presence of additives already named in the last paragraph. The blends [P(S-co-MMA)-AlBr3, P(S-co- MMA)-PBr3 and P(S-co-MMA)-SnCl4] exhibit a low-temperature degradation which is thought to be linked to the decomposition of non-copolymeric part of the blends. This destabilization is followed by stabilization of either component of the systems (general observation). The release of free radicals by the disintegration of „free‟ or „attached‟ additives initiates as well as inhibits depolymerization. The „co-ordination‟ or „complex‟ type structures become less appreciable in the present case when this feature is compared with the PMMA blends revealing the lower number of pendent (-COOCH3) groups available in copolymer. New products are noticed in all blends which furnish the basis for chemical influence of the constituents on each other‟s pyrolysis. Phosphorus appears attached to the degrading copolymer for P(S-co-MMA)-PBr3. Benzene ring, substituted with halogens, evidence the types of reactions that occur as the degradation processes progress. The pyrolysis of P(S-co-MMA)-SnCl4 unveils the formation of bisubstituted benzene which means chlorine is more reactive than bromine (no such instances are observed with P(S-co- MMA)-AlBr3 and P(S-co-MMA)-PBr3). These reactions are believed to proceed free radically. The test of flammability proves that all the additives are equally effective in case of copolymer‟s burning.