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Tracking the Dynamics of Interaction Between Fiscaland Monetary Policy in Pakistan

Thesis Info

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Author

Shahid, Muhammad

Program

PhD

Institute

Pakistan Institute of Development Economics

City

Islamabad

Province

Islamabad

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2018

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Economics

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/13432/1/Muhammad_Shahid_Economics_HSR_2018_PIDE_12.09.2018.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676725149079

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Politicians, policy makers and economic managers want to spur economic growth, bring economic stability and to create jobs. Economic growth is not only affected by macroeconomic policies but it is also prone to various types of shocks. Appropriate and timely policy response can at least minimize, if not completely escaped, the distortions and loses associated with shocks. Optimization of economic growth and its sustainability demands the execution of good macroeconomic policies in general and fiscal and monetary policy in particular. Some time fiscal policy seems to be more effective while the environment is more favorable for monetary policy in other times. We also know that both fiscal and monetary policy have different objective with different policy instruments. The macroeconomic situation of Pakistan’s is very depressing and the situation demands stark assessment of its macroeconomic policies particularly fiscal and monetary policy. The objective of this thesis is to investigate the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy using small scale open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. This thesis explores the responsiveness of monetary policy to fiscal policy vis-à-vis explore the fiscal implications of monetary policy. As we assume a small scale open economy, we also explore the responses of fiscal and monetary policy interaction to technology and foreign output shocks. We also countercheck few results using the techniques of autoregressive distributive lag model. Our findings reveal the existence of interaction between fiscal and monetary policy in Pakistan. The response of interest rate to fiscal policy, particularly to tax shock is positive. Fiscal and monetary policy behaves as a strategic complements. This is not a good sign for a crippling economy like Pakistan’s as two important macroeconomic policies are contractionary simultaneously. Similarly when it comes to spending component, interest rate negatively responds when government increases spending. Both fiscal and monetary authority adopts expansionary policies simultaneously. We also find that higher interest rate discourage government borrowing. Inflation responds negatively to interest rate in DSGE set up while the phenomenon of price puzzle exists in ARDL schemes of things. The response of inflation is positive to both higher taxes and government spending. Government spending reduces in response to a monetary policy shock. Tax revenue also reduces when interest rate shock occurs in the economy. Inflation also raises the revenue from taxes but is very short lived.
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مولانا حافظ احمد سعید دہلوی

مولانا حافظ احمد سعید دہلوی
قلم یہیں تک پہنچا تھا کہ اچانک مولانا حافظ احمد سعید صاحب دہلوی کی وفات حسرت آیات کی اطلاع ملی۔اناﷲ وانا الیہ راجعون۔مولانا جمعیۃ العلمائے ہند کے بانیوں میں سے تھے اوراس کے پہلے جنرل سیکرٹری تھے۔ اس حیثیت سے انھوں نے ملک میں دورے کیے اورجگہ جگہ تقریریں کیں،یہ زمانہ تحریک خلافت کے شباب کازمانہ تھا۔مولانا کی تقریروں نے دھوم مچا دی اوربچہ بچہ کی زبان پران کانام تھا۔دلّی کی ٹکسالی زبان بولتے اوراسی میں گھنٹوں خاص لب ولہجہ کے ساتھ تقریر کرتے تھے۔اس لیے اُن کی گفتگو اورتقریر دونوں اس قدر شیریں اورشگفتہ ہوتی تھیں کہ بس ’’وہ کہیں اورسُنا کرے کوئی‘‘۔ قرآن مجید کے بہت اچھے حافظ تھے اوراُس کے ساتھ بڑا شغف رکھتے تھے۔نہایت آسان زبان میں قرآن کاترجمہ وتفسیر لکھ رہے تھے جو غالباً پایۂ تکمیل کو پہنچ گئی ہے۔ دینیات پرمتعدد کتابیں بھی ان کی یادگار ہیں۔ متعدد بارحریت وطن کی راہ میں جیل گئے۔ طبعاً بے حد خلیق، ملنسار، خوش طبع اوربڑے بذلہ سنج بزرگ تھے۔ اگرچہ ادھر دوبرس سے جمعیتہ کے صدر تھے لیکن چند درچند عوارض واسقام کے باعث برسوں سے گوشہ نشین ہوگئے تھے۔دلی سے باہر کے لوگ اُن کی تقریر سننے کو ترستے تھے مگرانھوں نے سفر کرنا بالکل ترک کردیا تھا۔عجب باغ وبہار انسان تھے۔ان کا فقرہ فقرہ زبان کی لطافت ونفاست کامرقع ہوتا تھا۔دلّی وہ دلّی ہی نہیں رہی ہے۔ اب ایسے بزرگ کہاں ملیں گے؟کل من علیھا فان ویبقیٰ وجہ ربک ذوالجلال والاکرام۔ اﷲ تعالیٰ کروٹ کروٹ جنت نصیب اورصدیقین وشہدا کامقام جلیل عطافرمائے۔آمین [دسمبر۱۹۵۹ء]

 

شاگرد کے خلاف تادیبی کاروائی کا دائرہ کار سنت نبوی اور فقہ اسلامی کی روشنی میں ایک تحقیقی جائزہ

Education is the development of the different aspects of human being like psychological, social and physical development etc. It is not only the provision of information but it is for the sake of guidance of students to make them beneficial human beings. A teacher inculcates good habits in students and tries to reduce or terminate bad habits in them. Therefore, the responsibility of teacher is to guide the students about good and bad along with improving their academics. But while doing so, the teacher should avoid the ways which can be harmful for the students. Therefore he (the teacher) should know how to guide the students and stop them from wrong doings. At what time what technique, he should adopt that can give benefits to students? He should be aware of the student’s psychology, their age and their abilities. Sometimes punishment is very much necessary for students to make them realize not to commit anything like this again. At this critical moment what can help the student and teacher? The Holy Prophet Muhammad (SAW), being a perfect teacher guided the Umma in this aspect. He used many skills as a teacher and taught his followers, how to guide their children and pupils. Many times the prophets would use to advise his followers on anywrong doing and that is why none of the followers repeated the same mistake. It is very important to follow the teachings of the Holy Prophet in aspect. This research paper discusses the way of handling the students in different situations.

Determining the Level of Agreement for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Stratification Between Coronary Artery Calcium Score and Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Models.

Introduction: Estimating the risk of future cardiovascular (CV) events is an essential step in the management and prevention of cardiovascular diseases. Many cardiovascular risk tools are available such as the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), the American Heart Association/ American College of Cardiology (AHA/ACC) and the International Society of Hypertension and World Health Organization (ISH/WHO) risk charts. Regrettably, none of these tools has yet to be validated based on data from our Kenyan population. This study, therefore, sought to compare the accuracy of FRS and ACC/AHA in a Kenyan population. The risk estimates derived from the CV tools were correlated with coronary artery calcium score (CACS), a well-established reliable predictor of future risk of cardiovascular events. Objective: Determining the level of agreement between coronary calcium score and traditional cardiovascular risk models for coronary artery disease risk stratification in a multiethnic population at a tertiary healthcare institution in Kenya. Design: A cross-sectional study Methods: Data were collected retrospectively from the medical records of 200 patients referred to the Radiology department for a CT coronary artery calcium score.190 patients met the inclusion criteria. Comparisons for risk stratification were made according to FRS, ACC/AHA, WHO/ISH and CACS and the agreement (Kappa) and correlation (Spearman rho) between them were calculated. Statistical significance was set at p Results: There was poor agreement (Kappa >0.191) between CACS and the clinical CVD riskmodels in the Kenyan population studied. In relation to this, 83.6%, 81.8 % and 66.2% of the intermediate risk group according to FRS, ACC/AHA and WHO/ISH, respectively, were down-classified by CACS. Moreover, 81.6%, 84.6% and 66.7% of those who would qualify for aggressive management as per FRS, ACC/AHA, and WHO/ISH risk-based algorithms, respectively, would not qualify for the same management as per the CACS. Conclusion: The poor agreement between CACS and these clinical CVD risk scores suggests that the clinical CVD risk tools currently used in our Kenyan population might be incorrectly stratifying CV risk in patients. This highlights the need to externally validate these CVD risk models in our population to better risk predictions and set appropriate population-wide thresholds that are essential to aid better clinical decision making.