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Trade Policy Reforms, Export-Import Demand and Economic Growth Analysis With Reference to Pakistan 1981-2010

Thesis Info

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Author

Khan, Saleem

Program

PhD

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2015

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Economics

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/9835/1/Saleem%20Khan_Gomal%20Univ_2015.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676725149975

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Reforms in trade policy in favor of trade liberalization Pakistan began most properly since mid of eighties. We, in this study intend to understand that how the reforms in trade policy did may affect the trade flows and economic growth of Pakistan. For the purpose, estimated export-import demand as well as Thirlwall’s model of economic growth and has assorted the thesis in total eight chapters. The empirical exercise are executed, adopting various econometric techniques includes least square method, rolling regression, ARDL and model of error correction, with the annual data of 1981 to 2010 drawn from different national and international databases. Extended trade models are developed to investigate for trade liberalization effects on exports, imports demand and to provide more reliable estimates of the price and income elasticities. We found that trade flows show different responses to the basic trade determinants and trade liberalization measures. In particular, imports are more responsive to the changes in domestic income rather than exports to the foreign income. The trade flows and exchange rates are negatively related. Both exports and imports are less responsive to the changes in real effective exchange rate or relative prices. Given that both price elasticities add more than unit, so their coefficient estimates in absolute form indicates that Pakistan satisfy ML-condition at aggregate level. Different dummies and duties ratios are used to weigh up for the impact of trade policy reforms in favor of liberalization. Among, duties ratio produces robust results and are consistent with expected negative sign. The exports and imports duties reduction have significantly changed the demand for Pg- 4 - exports and imports, with the larger impact on import demand. Furthermore, relatively liberalization of year 2003 has found more significant than year of 1991. The dummies show that the freer the trade, the higher the demand for export and imports. Finally, Thirlwall’s Law has tested for Pakistan economy using the annual data for whole sample and then sub periods. The law can be used to analyze whether economic growth constrained by the trade balance. According to the results, economic growth is constrained by the trade balance and the process of trade liberalization shows a trend increase in the rate of income elasticity for Pakistan’s import demand greater than increase in export growth. Thus, the trade liberalization impact on Pakistan’s economic growth can be esteemed as disappointing. In conclusion, the study finding is beyond than previous and has an important suggestion for the progression and extent of trade liberalization.
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سید ابوالنظر رضوی

سید ابوالنظر رضوی
افسوس ہے ہمارے حمیم صمیم سید ابو النظر رضوی کا۸/اپریل کوکراچی میں انتقال ہوگیا۔موصوف امروہہ ضلع مراد آباد کے شرفا اورنامور رؤسا میں سے تھے، بلا کے ذہین اور طباع تھے۔درس نظامی کا بڑا حصہ مدرسہ امدادیہ مرادآباد میں پڑھا تھااورپھر آخر میں ایک سال دارالعلوم دیوبند میں رہ کر تکمیل کی تھی۔اردو کے صاحب طرزانشاء پرداز اورادیب تھے۔طبیعت میں روانی غضب کی تھی۔تقسیم سے پہلے برہان میں اُن کے مقالات اکثر نکلتے رہتے تھے۔اس کے علاوہ دوسرے ادبی اورعلمی رسالے بھی مرحوم کے مضامین فخر سے شایع کرتے تھے۔ ۱۹۴۸ء میں یکایک اپنی تمام جائیدادواملاک چھوڑ چھاڑ کرکرا چی چل دیے۔بڑی تمناؤں اورآرزؤں کولے کر گئے تھے لیکن ایک بھی پوری نہیں ہوئی اورہزاروں روپیہ ماہوار کاخرچ رکھنے والا وہاں عسرت وتنگدستی کاشکارہوکر رہنے لگا۔ان پیہم ناکامیوں اورمایوسیوں کانتیجہ یہ ہواکہ تپ دق میں مبتلا ہوگئے۔مرنے سے چندماہ پہلے ایک خط میں کس حسرت سے لکھتے ہیں:’’قدرت کے کارخانے بھی عجیب ہیں۔ جب میرے پاس ریاست تھی،دولت تھی اورطاقت تھی اس وقت مجھ کویہ موذی مرض نہ دیاکہ میں اس کامقابلہ کرسکتا تھا، اب اس غریب الوطنی اورتنگدستی میں مجھ کو اس بیماری میں مبتلا کرکے سوائے اس کے کہ قدرت’’گربہ و موش‘‘ کا تماشا دکھانا چاہے اورکیا فائدہ ہے؟‘‘
بعض خاص اسباب کی بناپر مذہبی خیالات میں عدم توازن پیداہوگیا تھا اور قرآن مجید میں بعض عجیب طرح کی تاویلات و توجیہات کرنے لگے تھے۔ یوں نہایت شریف، بامروت،دوست نواز،بے حد خلیق اورملنسار تھے۔مہماں نوازی بڑی عالی ظرفی سے کرتے تھے۔ اﷲ تعالیٰ اُن کی لغزشوں اورغلطیوں سے درگزر فرماکر ان کو مغفرت وبخشش کی نعمت سے نوازے۔آمین [مئی۱۹۵۶ء]

 

Socio-Economic Effects of Rampant Divorce in Nigeria: The Northern Muslims Scenario

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