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Vulnerability of Major Crops to Climate Change in Pakistan: Time Series Ascertainment

Thesis Info

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Author

Shakoor, Usman

Program

PhD

Institute

Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University

City

Rawalpindi

Province

Punjab

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2015

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Financial economics

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/6877/1/USMAN_SHAKOOR_Agri_Economics_PMAS_2015.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676725166769

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Climate change has emerged as a major environmental threat towards the agrarian economy of Pakistan with significant pressures on agriculture production abilities, ecosystem functioning, availability of water assets and also affecting the economic firmness. Increase in atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases has produced significant effects on the climate of our home land in the coming years and this would transform our normal climate, leading towards extreme weather happenings. The current study traced out the impact of climate change on major crops of Pakistan i.e. wheat, rice, maize, sugarcane and cotton by employing Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model. Yearly seasonal data (from 1983 to 2013) published by the Metrological Department of Pakistan and Agriculture Statistics of Pakistan was used. It was revealed that climate change has significant influence on production abilities of major crops in Pakistan. Temperature variable has lasting impacts on crop production. Average minimum temperature played a positive role towards the production of wheat, maize and cotton while reduced the production abilities of rice and sugarcane crop. In case of wheat it showed about 17 percent increase in production due to minimum temperature and showed about 4 percent increase in cotton production. Average maximum temperature also showed positive effects for cotton and maize crop and reduced the production abilities of wheat, rice and sugarcane crops. Average temperature increased production of cotton and sugarcane and lasted negative impacts on wheat, maize and rice. Average temperature increase from four to five degree till 2030 brought reduction in maize production about 5.8 percent. Rainfall is going to be beneficial for sugarcane crop xxiii production. However, it negatively affects wheat, maize and cotton crop. In case of rice it has a beneficial impact in initial period. However, in the long run, it has a negative impact. Variance decomposition showed that average rainfall has brought about 13 percent variations in cotton production hence creating a negative impact while in case of sugarcane it only showed about 2 percent variation. Water availability significantly added for the entire major crops showing that time availability of the water required fairly enhances crop productions. Fertilizer role towards crop production were also very positive i.e. timely fertilizer application enhanced crop production for all the crops. Augmenting research and development policies, public private partnership are the key options to mitigate the harmful effects. Introducing heat and drought resistant crop varieties, improvement in existing irrigation systems, adjusting timings of cultivation will definitely eliminate the catastrophic effects of climate change.
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4۔عوامی شعور کی کمی

پاکستانی معاشرے میں حدود وقصاص قوانین سے واقفیت اور ان پر عمل درآمد کے حوالے سے عوامی شعور کی کمی ہے، جس کی وجہ سے لوگ ان قوانین کے نفاذ کے لیے جدوجہد نہیں کرتے ہیں اور نہ گرم جوشی کا مظاہرہ کرتے ہیں۔ صحیح معنوں میں لوگ شریعت کی روح سے واقفیت رکھتے ہی نہیں۔ وہ اسلام کو صرف عبادات اور اخلاقیات کا مجموعہ سمجھتے ہیں ۔ اسلام تو حقوق اللہ اور حقوق العباد دونوں کا مجموعہ ہے ۔ عبادت سے تو صرف جنت ملتی ہے اور خدمت سے خدا ملتا ہے ۔ اس فلسفہ سے آگاہی ہر شخص کو نہیں۔ لہذا اس امر کی ضرورت ہے کہ عوام الناس میں اسلامی معاشرے کی اخلاقی اقدار کے تحفظ ، انسانیت کی خدمت کا جذبہ بیدار کیا جائے ، تاکہ اسلامی قوانین کے نفاذ میں کوئی رکاوٹ پیدا نہ ہو۔

مشاجرات صحابہ کرام کا علمی اور تحقیقی جائزہ

The focus of this study is to highlight the ‘’Mushajarat, of the companions of the Holy Prophet (PBUH). Lexical meaning of the ‘’Mushajarat, is a dense trees in which the branches are mixing and striking with each other. Here it exposes itself in the meaning of fight because the fighter are mixing and striking with one another. The religious scholars did not explain the partiality among the companions of the Holy prophet (PBUH) as fight, but they rather explained it as ‘’Mushajarat, because the dense tree is the beauty and has attraction for aesthetic watchers. According to ‘’sharia, the word ‘’Mushajarat, is used for the difference of opinion on religious issues among the companions of the Holy Prophet (PBUH) which is compared with dense tree in which the branches are mixing and striking each other, because the branches of a tree are in different directions which are not objectionable and cannot be termed as a weakness of a tree but rather beautify the tree. Indeed one can find differences amongst the companions of the Holy prophet (PBUH) but that is explained by the well doctrine Religious Scholars as ‘’Mushajarat, which is the beauty of Sharia and Islamic Fiqqah, because there was no hostility or hatred amongst the companion of Holy Prophet (PBUH) when they were explaining Islamic Fiqqah or Sharia.

Buddhist Stucco and Terracotta Heads in the Collection of Peshawar Museum, a Stylistic, Chronological and Petrographic Study

Today the subject of Buddhist art of Gandhara has been mostly restricted to the study of its style, influences and subject maters and less attention has been given to trace the provenance, historical information and material compositions of the sculptures. In the present study an attempt is made to find out solutions for such fundamental issues related to the provenance, chronology and composition particularly of stucco and terracotta sculptures. The figural representation executed in such perishable materials are laying in bulk in the store rooms of various museums of Pakistan especially in the Peshawar Museum and are waiting for such a study to solve these issues. Although most of these sculptures might have come from the proper excavations of known archaeological sites since the first decade of the 20th century but due to lack of enough attention and care as well as the nature of the material the museum inventory numbers put on them are sometimes defaced and it is now very difficult to trace their original record and to assign them into a particular site. In order to find out a possible solution for the above cited issues, the present study is focused on the stucco and terracotta heads as till yet these art pieces are not either documented, illustrated or analysed in a scientific way. For the first time we have studied its material composition through the CRL (Central Resource Laboratory) laboratory of Physics Department, University of Peshawar. Two types of procedures i.e EDX and XRD were followed to obtain elemental and mineral form information which leads us to our desired objectives. The results achieved from these analysis are incorporated in the dissertation (see chapter eight) while other related information to the collection are presented in serial wise in the following chapters. Chapter one contains a brief introduction to the background of study its aim and objectives and research methodology. Chapter two treats with the geography and brief history of Gandhara. Chapter three, is about those ancient religions which are flourished here and, their presence still can be observed in the art and architecture of this region. Four chapter is dedicated to the story of Buddhist art from the very beginning until it reached to its climax in Gandhara, the use of stucco and terracotta material in Gandhara art and the initiation of archaeological work during and after Britishers. Chapter five is based on the study of those sites of Gandhara which are properly excavated and from where stucco and terracotta sculptural material were found for the purpose to know the exact chronology of this type of sculptures. Chapter six, is about the study of stylistic analysis and regional workshops of stucco and terracotta sculptures housed in the Peshawar Museum, while in chapter seven different parts of heads and their shapes and styles are discussed in detail. Chapter eight is based on the petrographic analysis, its objectives, methodology, and obtained results.Chapter nine represents an attempt to reconstruct the actual bodies on which these heads were mounted. Conclusion is the last portion of the dissertation, the achieved results and recommendations are incorporated here. These are supported by three charts, bibliographic lists, index and plates.