Search or add a thesis

Advanced Search (Beta)
Home > Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Short Term Load Forecasting

Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Short Term Load Forecasting

Thesis Info

Access Option

External Link

Author

Hassnain, Syed Riaz Ul

Program

PhD

Institute

University of Engineering and Technology

City

Peshawar

Province

KPK

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2009

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Applied Sciences

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/handle/123456789/161

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676725517532

Similar


In modern complex and highly interconnected power systems, load forecasting is the first and most critical step in operational planning. The ability to predict load from few hours ahead to several days in the future can help utility operators to efficiently schedule and utilize power generation. The main focus of this research is to have an accurate and robust solution to the Short-term Load Forecasting (STLF) problem using Artificial Intelligence based techniques. Amongst several techniques reported in the literature, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has been proposed as one of the promising solution for STLF. The ANN is more advantageous than statistical models, because it is able to model a multivariate problem without making complex dependency assumptions among input variables. By learning from training data, the ANN extracts the implicit nonlinear relationship among input variables. However, ANN-based STLF models use Backward Propagation (BP) algorithm for training, which does not ensure convergence and hangs in local minima more often. BP requires much longer time for training, which makes it difficult for real- time application. To overcome this problem, we use Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm to evolve directly ANN by considering it as an optimization problem. With PSO responsible for training, we can modify ANN in any way to suit the problem or class of problems. Secondly, load series is complex and exhibit several level of seasonality due to which sometimes ANN is unable to capture the trend. To overcome this shortcoming, we have used modularized approach. We used smaller ANN models of STLF based on hourly load data and train them through the use of PSO algorithm. A variety of Swarm based ANN hourly load models have been trained and tested over real time data spread over a period of 10 years. Keeping in view the various seasonal effects and cyclical behavior, we divided the load data in different scenarios and results were analyzed and compared. The forecast results in majority of the cases are fairly accurate and prove the promise of proposed methodology. This approach gives better-trained models capable of performing well over time varying window and results in fairly accurate forecasts.
Loading...
Loading...

Similar Books

Loading...

Similar Chapters

Loading...

Similar News

Loading...

Similar Articles

Loading...

Similar Article Headings

Loading...

یحییٰ اعظمی

یحییٰ اعظمی
ناظرین کو یہ معلوم کر کے افسوس ہوگا کہ دفتر دارالمصنفین کے منصرم یحییٰ صاحب اعظمی نے چند دنوں کی علالت کے بعد ۲۲؍ فروری کو انتقال کیا، وہ عمر بھر دارالمصنفین سے وابستہ رہے اور مرکر اس سے جدا ہوئے، مرحوم بڑے متدین اور دفتری کاموں میں تجربہ کار تھے، ہزاروں روپیے کا کاروبار ان کے ہاتھ میں تھا اور کبھی ایک حبہ کا فرق نہیں نکلتا تھا، ایسے قابل اعتماد آدمی مشکل سے ملیں گے، طبیعت میں حد سے زیادہ نظافت و نفاست تھی، بڑی صاف ستھری زندگی بسر کرتے تھے، ان کا دفتری کام بھی بڑا صاف ستھرا تھا، خشک دفتری کاموں کے ساتھ خوشگو شاعر بھی تھے، ان کے کلام کے دو مجموعے ’’نوائے حیات‘‘ اور ’’نوائے عصر‘‘ شائع ہوچکے ہیں، اﷲ تعالیٰ ان کی مغفرت فرمائے۔
(شاہ معین الدین ندوی، مارچ ۱۹۷۲ء)

Identification of Factors Contributing to Primary Female Subfertility by Diagnostic Hystero-Laparoscopy: An Experience of Private Hospital

Background: Management of subfertility is influenced by the diagnosis of its causative factor. Combined diagnostic hystero-laparoscopy has emerged as an effective procedure in identifying causative factors of female subfertility. Objectives: This study aimed to identify contributory factors to primary female subfertility by diagnostic hystero-laparoscopy. Methods: This descriptive study was conducted at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology of Hameed Latif hospital, Lahore, Pakistan from December 2021 to May 2022. Data was collected from 344 women with female primary subfertility, undergoing combined diagnostic hystero-laparascopy. All the demographic data along with identified causative factors (tubal blockade, cervical Os stenosis, endometrial polyp, uterine septum, uterine fibroid, endometriosis, peri tubal adhesions and polycystic ovaries) during the procedure were recorded in predesigned study proforma. Data were analyzed through SPSS software 23. Results: Mean age of the patients was 25±5.0 years and the mean duration of subfertility was 3.8+0.55 years. Two hundred and eighty-four (82.56%) patients had abnormal findings, while sixty (17.44%) had normal findings. Out of 284 patients, 94(34%) had one identified factor, while 190 (66%) patients had two or more identified factors for primary subfertility. Polycystic ovaries were seen in 128(37.21%) patients, followed by tubal blockade in 81(23.54%), peri tubal adhesions/hydrosalpinx in 58(16.86%) patients. Conclusions: Diagnostic hystero-laparoscopy is an effective diagnostic procedure for the evaluation of female factor subfertility and may be helpful to gynecologists in devising further management plans.

Autonomous Weapons and Their Compliance with International Humanitarian Law

This research will firstly, try to analyze as well try to bring light on the recent entry of autonomous weapons together with the issues pertaining to the usage of these lethal weapons and the compliance of these A.I based fully autonomous weapons with the laws, rules and principle of war including their compliance with international humanitarian law. These weapons are fully automatic and autonomous skilled with acquiring target without human emotion or cultural limitations. These weapons are capable of selecting the target and executing the targets on their own, without any human interference. It can be enabled to assess the situational setting on a combat zone and to make a decision on the required attack according to the processed information. These artificial intelligence-based weapons totally lack all the characteristic of human intelligence and decisions that make humans subject and accountable to rules and norms. Recently, the usage and deployment of these AI machines had posed threat to the norms and principle of laws of war, they have posed the fundamental challenge to the protection of civilians and to comply with the principle of international humanitarian law such as principle of distinction, principle of proportionality, principle of Military Necessity and Article 36 of additional protocol-I to Geneva conventions of 1949 etc. As autonomous weapons are not able to distinguish between soldiers and civilians they create a serious issue of whether they should be banned or not. Secondly, will tryto attempt and explain the question of responsibility for usingautonomous weapons, An autonomous weapon does not have agency, moral or otherwise, and subsequently cannot be held accountable for its actions. Moreover, if autonomous weapons were used in limited situations in the belief that they could function with discrimination, it would be problematic to choose exactly who was accountable for mishaps