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Climate Change and Variability Trends in Pakistan and its Environmental Effects

Thesis Info

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Author

Salma

Program

PhD

Institute

University of Peshawar

City

Peshawar

Province

KPK

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2011

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Earth sciences

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/2539/1/2584S.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676725728849

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The issue of climate change has emerged very strongly during the last two decades on global scale in view of its projected implications on the environment of vulnerable states. Steadily rising temperature and its impacts on the cryosphere, rainfall and river flows are evident in many regions around the world. Changes in rainfall directly affect hydrology, water resources, agriculture, ecosystems, healthcare and disaster management sectors. Seen in the context of Pakistan, a country with very large population, agriculture based economy and high vulnerability index to natural disasters, it was important to ascertain climate variability and determine trends of temperature, rainfall and river flows on spatial and temporal basis. The study was conducted across the country to assess variations in mean minimum and maximum temperatures and rainfall in different climate zones of Pakistan. For this purpose datasets comprising 30 years of weather parameters from 1976 to 2005 were acquired from 30 meteorological observatories from different parts of the country based on the Kööpen classification system. In order to study the impact of change in temperature and rainfall on river flows, discharge record for the past 25 years of six relevant rivers was examined. The results of temperature analysis have indicated that the climatic zone located in high mountains in north, northwest and west have not been affected much as compared to the plain and coastal areas where a positive trend has been recognized. An increase of about 0.11°C/decade in mean temperature including 0.1°C/decade in minimum temperature and 0.12°C/decade in maximum temperature has been determined for Pakistan as a whole. On the one hand rainfall data has revealed an overall decline of -1.18mm/decade but on the other hand river discharges have increased in Indus and Swat rivers. Use of statistical models for forecasting future trends indicate an overall increase in the mean minimum & maximum temperature of the country till 2030 while rainfall shows a declining trend. Although the average increase of 0.11°C/decade is less than the global mean, the potential implications are far reaching. It is concluded that climate change phenomenon may be given key consideration in planning, designing, and implementing developmental schemes, food security, and disaster risk management sectors to adapt and mitigate undesirable scenarios.
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ارادھنا

ارادھنا
ساعت نایاب میں!
معانیوں کے شباب میں۔۔۔سبز بارشوں کے سحاب میں!
جذبات کی خوشبو۔۔۔چشم عہد وفا میں!
روایتوں کے تلازمے میں۔۔۔آپؐ کے نام سے زندگی ہے
آپؐ محبوب رب العالمین ۔۔۔آپؐ رحمت اللعالمین ہیں
آپؐ کے نسب نامے کا ورد کرتے ہوئے!
وجد انگیز قوسوں کا ذکر کرتے ہوئے!
زعفرانی لحن کو۔۔۔گلاب کے بانکپن کو!
رشتۂ لکنت سے منسلک!
آگ کا تاثیر توریت میں ڈوبا ناول پڑھتا ہوں!
مکہ سے مدینہ کا سفر نامہ پڑھتے ہوئے !
غارِ ثور میں گونجتی نثری نظمیں سناتا ہوں
میں تو بس صبح و شام !
آپؐ کی بارگاہ میں درود و سلام پیش کرتا رہتا ہوں
آپؐ کا نام میری بندگی ۔۔۔زندگی ہے
آپؐ محبو ب رب العالمین ۔۔۔آپؐ رحمت اللعالمین ہیں
آپؐ شافعِ محشر۔۔۔آپؐ حبیبِ خدا!
صلِ علیٰ۔۔۔صلِ علیٰ۔۔۔صلِ علیٰ

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یہ عہد الست سے موجودہ دور کے نشیب و فراز تک ، مزاجِ شفق کی دلیلوں کو فکری اساس کی وادیوں میں پروان چڑھانے میں لگی رہی ۔ یہ کٹھور اور سنگدل لمحوں کی طرف سے دی جانے والی اذیت سے نڈھال ضرور رہی، لیکن مری نہیں۔ اس کی وسعت...

Robustness of the Poverty Measures: Evidence from Farm Households in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria

The use of a plethora of poverty indexes is sometimes fraught with difficulties. The purpose of this research was to quantitatively assess poverty and to examine the robustness of the poverty metrics. Selecting representative farm homes required a multistage sample technique, which was implemented. A total of 150 rural homes were surveyed using questionnaires. Stochastic dominance and the weighted poverty measures of Foster, Greer and Thorbecke were used in this work to examine the weighted poverty measures' resilience and sensitivity to changes in the poverty line. According to the findings, as people become older and their families get larger, the likelihood, severity, and depth of poverty increases. An asymptotic sampling distribution was utilized to infer whether poverty was larger across a variety of hypothetical poverty lines by stochastic dominance analysis. First-order stochastic dominance was found, with the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of households headed by people over 60 years old lying totally above the other distribution functions (CDFs). The CDF of single families was lower than the CDF of married households, according to the findings. At any poverty level, the CDF of families with more than 10 household members stochastically dominated those with fewer family members. Many households will be lifted out of poverty if poverty-reduction initiatives are targeted at those over 60 and those with big families.

The Anatomy of Workplace Advice Network in Relationship With Employees Personal Characteristrics, Psychological Profile and the Perceived Leadership Styles

Advice networks are integral part of an organization as they channel a highly valuable resource, advice, across the workplace in the form of information, ideas, knowledge, guidance and instructions among employees in an informal social network augmenting the formal communication channels. This thesis attempted to explore some commonly observed morphological structures of workplace advice networks including tie forming tendency, reciprocity, gender-based homophily, popularity and activity spreads and transitivity in the real-world context of personal (gender, education, experience and expertise), psychological (personality, emotional intelligence and positive psychological capital) attributes of employees and the perceived leadership styles- thus the term anatomy. Using purposive sampling, 20 service-sector organizations were surveyed as WANs and 100% response rate was achieved. Network data were collected using a sociometric matrix employing the roster method. On the other hand, the conventional data for the personal characteristics were collected using a section for the demographic variables. The questionnaire for personality, emotional intelligence and positive psychological capital were borrowed from Donnellan, Oswald, Braid and Lucas (2006), Wong and Law (2002) and Luthans Avolio, Avey and Norman (2007) respectively. The scales were tested for their validity and reliability employing exploratory and then confirmatory factor analyses for validity and Cronbach’s alphas for reliability of the scales. Finally, to map the real-world effects of actors personal characteristics, psychological profiles, and perceived leadership styles upon the selected structural paradigms of the workplace advice networks, this thesis resorted to Exponential Random Graph (or p*) Models. The results showed that actors in the advice networks followed a meticulous approach in seeking advice from given colleagues in the networks. The advice seekers also tended to form reciprocal ties besides the general tendency to form advice seeking ties with a common advice giver. As far as the nodal attributes were concerned, employees with higher scores on the personality scales tended to seek advice rather than give; whereas employees with higher scores on emotional intelligence were more inclined towards advice giving. Nonetheless, employees with higher positive psychological capitals were less inclined towards advice giving. All other structural elements and attributes were insignificant. Anatomy of workplace advice network xi The study mainly focused on the total effects of the psychological constructs including personality, emotional intelligence and positive psychological capital, there still is a need to measure the effects of the individual components of each of these constructs separately. Similarly, the effect to different types of leadership styles perception can also be independently studied with reference to the anatomy of workplace advice networks. Finally, structures like transitivity can be studied independently in a study for its various triangular forms.