Intoxicant Use in Undergraduate Medical Students of Islamabad, Pakistan

Intoxicant use and subsequent substance abuse is the leading health problem in younger age groups in contemporary times, and across the globe. It contributes to morbidity, mortality and economic loss. It also disturbs the social system of a community and creates a serious threat to global health. The aim of this study was to determine the use of intoxicants among medical college students of Islamabad and to identify the associated factors with intoxicant use. A cross-sectional research design was used to gather survey data from two private medical colleges. Data from a final sample of 310 respondents was analyzed using descriptive statistics. It was found that smoking was the most prevalent intoxicant used amongst the participants (21.9%). The other most common prevalent use of intoxicants included alcohol (6.1%), Naswar (powdered tobacco dip) (6.8%) and Heroin (3.9%). The male gender and need for mental relaxation were found to be statistically significant with cigarette smoking. Most of the students indicated that they did not feel guilty about using intoxicants. It is important that medical college administration develops policies to control intoxicant use among students, including and not limited to awareness campaigns, counseling and support for stress relief.

Stochastic Models for Population of Pakistan

TITLE: Stochastic Models for Population of Pakistan PAGES: 182 STUDENT: Muhammad Zakria SUPERVISOR: Professor Dr. Faqir Muhammad UNIVERSITY: Allama Iqbal Open University, Islamabad, Pakistan YEAR: 2005-2009 SUBJECT: Statistics DEGREE: Ph.D Population of Pakistan is projected by scientists, bureaus and countries using different methodologies. In this study, population projections, its age-sex distribution vision 2030 and inequality of the recorded and projected age-sex distribution is projected by different methods. Moreover, the reproductive cohort measure and fertility trends of the population during the last 20 years are measured. The said goals are achieved by using the population censuses data. First of all, the quality of all censuses data is checked and found to be very poor especially of 1972 census. Different popular smoothing techniques are used to smooth the census data and strong smoothed data is used for further analysis. A time series model i.e. ARIMA (1, 2, 0) W was found to be a parsimonious model and population is projected for the next 20 years. It would be approximately 230.68 million in 2027 along with 95% confidence limits 193.33 million and 275.25 million. The age sex distribution as well as iv the total population is also projected by using the Modified Markov chain method for 40 years ahead since 1981. The Projections by the Time series models and the Modified Markov chain method are more close to the projections of four internationally known bureaus i.e. (WPP 2008; People Facts and Figures & Total Population by Country 2009) and greater than (NIPS 2006; IDB 2008). Gini coefficients of the projected age sex distribution indicated the medium level of concentration during the next 20 years. Approximately 43.74%, 47.27% and 45.46% decrease in TFR has been seen in rural areas, urban areas and in Pakistan respectively during 1984-2005. Different polynomial models are studied and third degree polynomial model is recommended to fit on the age specific fertility rates of Pakistan and its rural urban regions.