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Development of Energy Modeling and Decision Support Framework for Sustainable Electricity System of Pakistan

Thesis Info

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Author

Nayyar Hussain Mirjat Baloch

Program

PhD

Institute

Mehran University of Engineering and Technology

City

Jamshoro

Province

Sindh

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2019

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Energy Systems Engineering

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/10256/1/Nayyar%20Hussain_muet_2019_Energy%20System%20Engineering_2642019.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676725873569

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Pakistan’s energy and power sector underperformed over the decades for its failure to adequately plan, formulate and implement the policies. As a result, the country which is believed to have abundant energy resources is coping significant electricity shortfall since 2006. This situation is confronting governments for many years to address these crises. However, in the absence of effective energy planning, various conformist planning and policy initiative could not deliver and decrease the reliance on imported fuels for power generation. The imported fossil fuels are huge burden for the national exchequer, on one hand, and are also unsustainable as they adversely add to climate change on the other hand. These circumstances warrant an energy security concern since the obscure future with growing population and economy pose a serious challenge to meet unprecedented electricity demand. It is, therefore, inevitable that Pakistan undertakes sustainable energy planning thereby acknowledging indigenous renewable energy resources and focusing energy efficiency and conservation. This research develops an energy modeling and decision support framework for the judicious energy policy development by incorporating sustainability criteria for the sustainable electricity system of Pakistan. This planning framework addresses two key shortcomings of unaided energy modeling for energy planning. First, the models typically provide a set of scenario alternatives which are based on the modeling parameters and not on the sustainability criteria as well as without appropriate decision support, and secondly, the energy policy makers in the developing countries little understand the inherent complexities of the energy models. As such, in this study following energy modeling, using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP), sustainability assessment of modeling results is undertaken using Expert Choice Comparion® decision tool. The Expert Choice Comparion® decision tool is based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. This research covers the study period of 2015-2050. Pakistan’s LEAP model results for the electricity demand forecast 1706.1 TWh of electricity requirements in 2050 which is 19 folds higher than the base year demand at xxi an annual average growth rate of 8.35%. The four supply side scenarios alternatives namely; Reference (REF), Renewable Energy Technologies (RET), Clean Coal Maximum (CCM) and Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EEC) are developed in the LEAP model while considering the resource potential, techno-economic parameters, and CO2 emissions. All four scenarios with various fuel and technology mix, meet the electricity demand during the study period. In terms of CO2 emissions, RET and CCM scenarios have emissions lower than EEC scenario. However, in the REF scenario, CO2 emissions are the highest of all the scenarios. Further, the EEC scenario has the lowest Net Present Value (NPV) requirement followed by REF, RET and CCM scenarios at all the discount rates (4%, 6%, 8%, 10%) considered in the study. The AHP methodology of this study comprises of four main-criteria which include technological, environmental, socio-political and economic criteria and seventeen sub-criteria for the judicious evaluation of the four scenario alternatives of the study. The questionnaire feedbacks under AHP methodology, using a pairwise comparison, determined weightages of the sustainability criteria which were further used towards the ranking of the scenario alternatives. The AHP based sustainability assessment ranks EEC scenario as the most preferred electricity generation scenario followed by REF, RET and CCM scenarios. However, CO2 emissions under EEC scenario are higher than the RET and CCM scenarios, as such, it is recommended that Pakistan should adopt energy efficiency and conservation as the focus of the energy policy alongside increasing the renewable energy share for the electricity generation. The dynamic and performance sensitivity analysis of the AHP decision support framework establishes the robustness of this study. Overall, the results of the developed planning framework are elaborative of the contemplation that how energy policy makers, experts, and stakeholders view future of energy system in Pakistan for next 35 years. The main achievement of this study is the development of a sustainable energy planning framework and providing a future insight pertaining the alternative energy pathways that Pakistan could follow for a sustainable electricity system. This study also proposes a set of policy recommendations that could contribute towards a sustainable energy system and thus sustainable development in Pakistan.
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تاہنگ وصل دی

تاہنگ وصل دی
دیس ماہی دے جانا میرا ہویا بہت ضروری اے
مکھ دلبر دا تکنا ای تکنا ایہہ میری مجبوری اے
ساون وانگوں برسن اکھیاں
وچ اڈیکاں سوں نہ سکیاں
جنھاں یار دیاں تاہنگاں رکھیاں
اوہ رہندیاں وچ حضوری اے
دیس ماہی دے جانا میرا ہویا بہت ضروری اے
مکھ دلبر دا تکنا ای تکنا ایہہ میری مجبوری اے
دل دا سودا کرے نہ کوئی
کرے جو موتوں ڈرے نہ سوئی
شاہ منصور دے نال جو ہوئی
عشقے دی مجبوری اے
دیس ماہی دے جانا میرا ہویا بہت ضروری اے
مکھ دلبر دا تکنا ای تکنا ایہہ میری مجبوری اے

جس دل عشق حضوری آوے
محبوباں دے دل نوں بھاوے
کدھرے وی اوہ چین نہ پاوے
رہندا وچ صبوری اے
دیس ماہی دے جانا میرا ہویا بہت ضروری اے
مکھ دلبر دا تکنا ای تکنا ایہہ میری مجبوری اے
شرع شریف نوں جو اپناندے
جگ وچ کوئی نہ تُل انہاندے
اسیں ویں یار مدینے جاندے
جے ہووے منظوری اے
دیس ماہی دے جانا میرا ہویا بہت ضروری اے
مکھ دلبر دا تکنا ای تکنا ایہہ میری مجبوری اے
قادریؔ! توں نہ یاد بھلاویں
دلبر توں نہ مکھ پرتاویں
جان منگے تاں دیر نہ لاویں
پھڑ چال چلن منصوری اے
دیس ماہی دے جانا میرا ہویا بہت ضروری اے
مکھ دلبر دا تکنا ای تکنا ایہہ میری مجبوری اے

PENERAPAN PEMBELAJARAN KOOPERATIF MODEL GROUP INVESTIGATION (GI) UNTUK MENINGKATKAN MOTIVASI DAN HASIL BELAJAR BIOLOGI

Model pembelajaran mempengaruhi motivasi dan hasil belajar Biologi siswa sekolah menengah atas. Berdasarkan observasi awal, diketahui bahwa pembelajaran Biologi di kelas X-1 SMA Negeri 7 Malang memiliki beberapa ciri, yaitu (1) motivasi belajar siswa cenderung kurang, (2) dalam menyelesaikan suatu tugas, siswa dengan karakteristik yang sama cenderung mengelompok sehingga terbentuk kelompok homogen yang tidak seimbang di kelas, dan (3) metode ceramah yang diterapkan oleh guru tidak menarik minat siswa sehingga mempengaruhi hasil belajarnya. Berdasarkan kondisi tersebut maka dilakukan penelitian dengan menggunakan pembelajaran kooperatif model Group Investigation (GI) untuk meningkatkan motivasi dan hasil belajar Biologi siswa. Jenis penelitian ini adalah penelitian tindakan kelas dengan menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif dan dirancang dalam dua siklus. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan penerapan pembelajaran kooperatif model GI dapat meningkatkan motivasi dan hasil belajar Biologi siswa. Motivasi belajar siswa meningkat sebesar 31, 48% yaitu dari 46, 15% dengan kategori cukup pada siklus I menjadi 77, 63% dengan kategori baik pada siklus II. Hasil belajar siswa juga mengalami peningkatan, terlihat dari nilai rata-rata siswa sebesar 81, 94% pada siklus I menjadi 89, 18% pada siklus II dan siswa yang tuntas belajar juga mengalami peningkatan dari 79, 49% pada siklus I menjadi 97, 44 % pada siklus II. Hasil angket juga menunjukkan bahwa siswa menyukai dan lebih termotivasi untuk belajar Biologi setelah mengikuti pembelajaran dengan pembelajaran kooperatif model GI.

Potential of Compost and Plant Growth Promoting Rhizobacteria for Biofortification of Iron and Zinc in Wheat

Agriculture have been responsible for feeding growing population for decads by developing new technologies of crops especially staple crops like maize, wheat, rice etc. But unfortunately the main focus of agriculture have always been on increasing crop production instead of promoting human health. To improve human health, increase in micronutrient contents in crops are required. To mitigate this micronutrient malnutrition, fortification of food is most common approach. Among fortification, biofortification of crops with essential nutrients provides an economical tool to rescue micronutrient deficiency in target populations globally. The use of plant growth promoting microorganisms (PGPR) is promising technique in this respect. It is well recognized that the mobilization of plant nutrient is promoted by the use of microorganisms and it ultimately reduces the need of chemical fertilizers. However, informations on interventions using PGPR or other biological agents is limited. This study included isolation, screening and characterization of Zn-solubilizing and siderophore producing PGPR and optimization of different compost levels for improving Zn and Fe availability in soils. For this purpose, several zinc solubilizing bacteria (ZSB) were isolated from rhizosphere of wheat crop from different areas and quantified on the basis of zinc solubilizing potential and maximum pH reduction in broth culture by bacterial isolates. The isolates were then checked for their potential to produce siderophores. Af ter that, 35 bacterial isolates were selected and screened on the basis of plant growth promotion activities under axenic conditions. From this, 7 bacterial isolates were selected for pot study. These isolates had ability for IAA production both in presence and absence of L-tryptophane and also had ACC-deaminase activity. These isolates were also capable of producing different types of organic acids that reduces the soil pH. Different levels of compost (0, 200, 400, 600, 800, 1000, 1200, 1400, 1600, 1800 and 2000 kg/ha) was mixed with soil and incubated for different time intervals and then selected on the basis of iron and zinc release pattern through optimization study. With increasing application of compost, the iron and zinc release was also increased and became maximum at 800 kg/ha compost. After that there was non-significant effect of compost on zinc and iron release and with further increase, this release start decreasing. Soil dehydrogenase and phosphatae activities was also increased with compost application. The release was maximum after 45 days of incubation. These compost levels and selected isolates from previous study was then evaluated in pot experiment. Data were analyzed following Factorial under CRD. The inoculation of bacterial isolates showed positive effect on physical, physiological and yield parameters over un-inoculated control. Among the isolates H-103 performed better and showed maximum growth. The results of 800 kg/ha application of compost was significant from lower levels (0 and 600kg/ha) and nonsignificant with higher level (1000 kg/ha). Grain zinc and iron concentration was also significantly increased by combined use of compost and bacterial isolates. These results were then confirmed under field trial. Data were analyzed following Factorial under RCBD. The inoculation of bacterial isolates showed positive effect on physical, physiological and yield parameters over un-inoculated control. Among the isolates H-103 performed better and showed maximum growth. Maximum growth was recorded with 800 kg/ha compost application. Seed zinc and iron concentration was increased and phytic acid contents were decreased upon inoculation. Concluding, the combined use of PGPR and compost is an effective, economical, novel approach for improving yield, quality and nutritional status of wheat crop which can help in combating micronutrient deficiencies. ate showed less height as compared to other isolate, but still it shows a positive response when compared with the control.