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Estimation of Economic Impacts and Adaptation Benefits of Climate Change on Agricultural Production System S in Punjab, Pakistan

Thesis Info

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Author

Nasir, Javaria

Program

PhD

Institute

University of Agriculture

City

Faisalabad

Province

Punjab

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2019

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Agricultural Technology

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/11970/1/Javaria%20nasir%20agri%20economics%202019%20uaf%20prr.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676726093016

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The impacts of climate change are extensive on agricultural systems, bionetworks and food security. Global sustainable development is facing serious threats in terms of food security and ecosystem services in the presence of rising population and climatic variation. The development policies must have synergy effect with climate change for the better adaptive capacity of nation. Integrated efforts must be made to formulate the climate adaptations at national and farm level in Pakistan. Currently Pakistan is passing through a thriving phase of climate change threats due to its typical Agro-geo climatic position, and prevalent poverty. This study specifically designed to find climatic vulnerability of cotton wheat cropping system in current time and devise adaptation packages for the farmers to better adapt to climate change. The main objective of this research was to design adaptation options for farmers in current and future time periods to better equip the farm families against climate change. To suggest appropriate policy options that will be helpful for the planning of climate contingencies in agriculture sector. Primary and secondary data have been utilized in this study. Primary data on socioeconomic and crop production variables were collected from 165 farmers located in five districts of South Punjab conducting a comprehensive farm survey. Downscale climate data, crop model (APSIM and DSSAT) simulation outputs and secondary data from global economic models were utilized in the analysis. The Tradeoff Analysis Model for Multi-dimensional Impact Assessment was utilized to find the current and future vulnerability and adaptation benefits for cotton wheat cropping system. For future climatic vulnerabilities different adaptations were compiled in which biophysical, socioeconomic and policy parameters were assessed. Results revealed that for Cotton crop there are high yield reduction due to climate change, as cotton is sensitive to variation in climate. In hot dry and hot wet GCMs reduction is huge as cotton is sensitive to heat shock and increase in temperature at specific stages cause lack of germination of seed or complete death of plant. Wheat is relatively less vulnerable, benefits due to increased concentration of carbon dioxide compensate the losses due to elevated temperature. Yield reductions due to climate change would increase the poverty rate and reduce net farm returns and per capita income of farming community. Current adaptations regarding climatic hazards are increase in cropping intensity, fertigation, efficient irrigation system, import of gene variety, crop insurance, and enterprise diversification. The suggested management interventions would reduce the losses and improve the farm livelihood. Crop insurance and agricultural credit must be insured for farmers to better adapt the climatic extremes. Agricultural policies must be integrated and devised to combat the climatic variations and sustainable resource use with consultation of researchers, farmers, processors and other stakeholders for better implementation. Important adaptation parameters for future adaptations were genetic improvements, draught resistant and heat tolerant varieties, deep tillage, soil and water conservation practices, construction of water storage, efficient irrigation systems, crop diversification, agricultural insurance and farm mechanization (mechanical picker for cotton). For future agricultural system new genetic varieties, improved fertilizers and efficient method of plantation were assessed and substantial improvement were realized for cotton crop but in case of wheat there are less benefits as losses are also low in case of wheat.
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