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Home > Investigation of Mechanisms to Detect Recurrence of Droughts in South Asia With Special Reference to Pakistan

Investigation of Mechanisms to Detect Recurrence of Droughts in South Asia With Special Reference to Pakistan

Thesis Info

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Author

Khan, Azmat Hayat

Program

PhD

Institute

COMSATS University Islamabad

City

Islamabad

Province

Islamabad.

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2014

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Earth sciences

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/handle/123456789/753

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676726504783

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Drought is a recurrent climate hazard and it can occur in all types of climates. In this study, recurrence of drought over South Asia has been studied by analyzing observed as well as modeled outputs of meteorological data. The 20th century precipitation has been analyzed over Asia region highlighting the inter-dependence of southwest monsoon and East Asia monsoon focusing on precipitation characteristics over South Asia. Tele-connections of rainfall over south Asia with oceanic indices and the impact on the shifting of the sub-tropical jet have been explored. The study also examined seasonal variability during the 1999-2001 drought periods from the normal years to identify the causes of drought over South Asia. The region receives most of its precipitation (70%) during southwest monsoon season that prevails from June to September. Monsoon season exhibits higher variability compared to winter season as depicted during the analysis of 1901-2010 dataset. Decadal average monsoon rainfall analysis depicts significant (99 %) increasing trend during 1st half of twentieth century (1901-1950). Afterward, significant decreasing trends (95%) are found in the data sets of 1951-2010 and 1981-2010 for South Asia. Winter rainfall is only one eighth of monsoon rainfall. Therefore, the major contribution in terms of water availability comes from southwest monsoon. Hence, failure of monsoon rainfall over the region would lead to drought conditions over South Asia. The analysis of country level precipitation depicts that except for Pakistan, precipitation is exhibiting decreasing trend over Sri Lanka, India and Nepal. However the change is not statistically significant. The correlation between monsoon rainfall and solar index is also examined that depicts that seasonal abnormality increases during steady periods of solar activity and vice versa. Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis is applied to depict that monsoon rainfall over drought vulnerable areas of west South Asia is highly correlated with rainfall activity over monsoon trough located at central India whereas rainfall over eastern Himalaya region is negatively correlated. Significant phases of oceanc indices such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have also been identified by computing standard deviation of seasonally averaged index values and investigated their impact on South Asia monsoon rainfall. Analysis depicts that during the past 60 years, frequency of negative episodes (< -1 St dev.) of PDO and SOI have significantly increased. Observed negative phases are twice as compared to positive phases since 1950. Whenever, the two indices are in opposite phase (1997, 2010), it resulted in extreme precipitation episodes over northwest domain of South Asia comprising northern India and Pakistan causing severe flooding over the region. Analysis reveals that IOD significantly contributes in regulating rainfall activity over South Asia. When IOD negative phase persists for longer duration and continue into next year, it weakens monsoon currents resulting suppressed rainfall activity over western India and most parts of Pakistan leading to drought. Analysis of the impact of various indices on case to case basis depicts that negative phase of SOI and positive phase of IOD significantly contribute in suppressing monsoon rainfall activity over South Asia that lead to drought events in the region. The analysis of area-weighted mean seasonal and annual rainfall for southern arid region of Pakistan has revealed that lower terciles are increasing with time. The seasonal area weighted average rainfall for this region is 58.6 mm, whereas the standard deviation is 30 mm, depicting that monsoon rainfall variability in the region is high. The annual and seasonal rainfall in the region has shown negative trend with increased frequency of lower terciles, making the region highly vulnerable to droughts. The hindcasts of coupled models under the EUROSIP project have been analyzed to develop drought prediction tool for the arid regions of Pakistan. The multi-model ensembles have been investigated for the prediction of two categories; below the median and lower-tercile (dry-season). The forecasts performance have been evaluated by employing Relative Operating Curve (ROC) verification method and areas under the curve are also verified through cross validation. The results for deficient monsoon rainfall predictability using the EUROSIP multi-model ensemble system have established that the system reveals good skill for lower-tercile forecasts over southern Pakistan (skill > 0.7). Therefore it is concluded that climate models of European Centre for Medium Range Forecast (ECMWF), Météo-France, and United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) are sensitive enough towards precipitation formation mechanism over monsoon region and able to predict dry episodes of the climate over drought prone areas of Pakistan.
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فصل چہارم: حدودوقصاص کے نفاذ میں معاون سماجی اداروں کا کردار

معاشرے کی بنیادی اکائی فردہے اور معاشرہ مختلف افراد کے میل جول ، رہن سہن ، مشترکہ مفادات اور روحانی و مادی ضروریات کے تحفظ کے لئے وجود میں آتا ہے ۔ جب معاشرے کا ہر فرد اپنی تمام ضروریا ت کی انجام دہی خود نہیں کر سکتا ،تو ریاست تمام ذمہ داریوں کو مشترکہ طور پر لوگوں کی صلاحیت ، قابلیت اور تعلیم کے مطابق تقسیم کر دیتا ہے ، جس سے معاشرے کی تمام ضروریات پوری ہوتی ہیں ۔یہ سب لوگ اجتماعی طور پر معاشرے کے تمام امور انجام دے رہے ہوتے ہیں ۔ اب اکیلا فرد تو اتنے سارےکا م سرانجام نہیں دے سکتا۔ اسی طرح معاشرے کے مقتدر ، بااختیار اور تعلیم یا فتہ اہل افراد اکٹھے مل کر اپنی خدادادصلاحیتوں کو استعمال کرتے ہوئے پورے معاشرے کی اصلاح و تعمیر کا بھی فریضہ ادا کرتے نظر آتے ہیں ، جیسا کہ اسلامی معاشرےکا قیام، اسلامی قوانین کا نفاذ ، امن وامان کا قیام ، ذرائع ابلاغ کا درست استعمال اور علمائے کرام و خانقاہی نظام کا کردار وغیرہ۔ قوانین حدودو قصاص کے نفاذ کے حوالے سے معاشرہ ریاست کے بغیر یہ قوانین خود نافذ نہیں کر سکتا ، البتہ معاشرہ اسلامی حکومت کے قیام اور معاشرتی اصلاح کے حوالے سے جدو جہد کر سکتا ہے ۔ لہذا امت مسلمہ کی اجتماعی ذمہ داریوں کی بجاآوری امت کے تمام افراد کے لئے فرض کفایہ ہے۔ درحقیقت حد ودکا نفاذ اسلامی حکومت کے قیام سے مشروط ہے اورحاکم وقت یا اس کا نمائندہ ہی حد کا نفاذ کر سکتا ہے ،جیساکہ سورۃ النور کی آیت نمبر دو کی تفسیر کرتے ہوئے علامہ قرطبی لکھتے ہیں
"الْخِطَابُ لِلْمُسْلِمِينَ، لِأَنَّ إِقَامَةَ مَرَاسِمِ الدِّينِ وَاجِبَةٌ عَلَى الْمُسْلِمِينَ، ثُمَّ الْإِمَامُ يَنُوبُ عَنْهُمْ، إِذْ لَا يُمْكِنُهُمُ الِاجْتِمَاعُ عَلَى إِقَامَةِ الْحُدُودِ." 389
"یہ خطاب تمام مسلمانوں سے ہے اس لیے...

کلام اقبال اور عشق مصطفے ﷺ

Dr. Muhammad Iqbal is an outstanding poet-philosopher, perhaps the most influential Muslim thinker of the 20th century. His poetry, both Urdu and Persian, is great. Iqbal's philosophy is known as the philosophy of selfhood (KHUDI). His philosophy determines the fact that the purpose of life is the development of inner-self. This goal of human being is definitely achieved by the true love of God, and sincere obedience of His Prophet Muhammad (PBUH). As the holy Quran declares loud and clear: "Say: if you do love Allah, follow me: Allah will love you and forgive you your sins."  This article is about the gist of Dr. Iqbal's poetry, which is the love and devotion of Allah's beloved Messenger Muhammad (PBUH). Just like Rumi, Dr. Iqbal had a similar pattern of love for the personality of the prophet. He made Him to be the role-model in bringing the socio-political change within the Muslim society of his time. He firmly believes:  If you are loyal to Muhammad, then We are yours The world is naught: The Pen of Destiny shall be yours

Transfusion Transmitted Viral Infections in High Risk Groups of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Introduction Blood transfusion is a specialized modality of patient management to sustain health and life, but carries a definite risk of acquisition of transfusion transmitted virus (TTV) infections particularly in resource limited settings. TTV infections are of great concern because of their asymptomatic nature, protracted viremia, highly variable course and of fatal, chronic and life threating disorders. The prevalence of TTVs among the blood recipients reflects the disease burden among the blood donors and general population. Material and method The study population was categorized in two groups on the basis of the history of blood transfusion: individuals with no history of blood transfusion were categorized as control group and individuals with history of blood transfusion were categorized as high risk group. High risk group was further divided into four sub groups; thalassemia, hemophilia, hemodialysis, and surgical patients. Sera of all individuals were investigated for the presence of HBsAg, anti-HCV and anti-HIV by using immune-chromatigraphic tests, followed by molecular analysis by PCR for the detection of viral DNA and RNA and genotypes. Result The study population consists of 4,607 individuals, 2,032 individuals comprised control group and 2,575 individuals comprised high risk group. Overall, 21.12% (973) individuals showed the evidence of TTV, among them 3.6% (166) was positive for HBsAg, 17.39% (801) was positive for anti-HCV and 0.13% (6) was positive to HBV&HCV while no individual was positive to HIV. 75 individuals were positive to HBV DNA, 18 individuals (27.69%) were classified into genotype B, 11 (16.92%) genotype C, 35 (53.84%) genotype D and 1 (1.54%) genotype F, 10 xi (15.38%) untypeable. 366 individuals were positive to HCV RNA, HCV genotypes 1 was detected in 71 (20.9%) individuals, genotype 2 in 17 (5.01%), genotype 3 in 182 (53.69%), genotype 4 in 16 (4.72%), genotype 5 and genotype 6 in 16 (4.72%), mixed genotype in 25 (7.37%) and untypeable in 32 (0.69%). In control group, 77 (3.7%) individuals was confirmed positive for TTV. Total 0.59% (12) individuals were positive for HBsAg, of which 58.33% (7) were male and 41.7% (5) were female, while HBV DNA was positive in 91.66% (11) individuals. Anti-HCV was positive in 3.2% (65) individuals, of which 58.46% (38) were male and 41.54% (27) were female, while HCV RNA was positive in 69.23% (45) individuals. In high risk group, 973 (4.8%) individuals was confirmed positive for TTV. 3.6% (166) individuals were positive for HBsAg, 64.93% males and 35.06% females, while HBV DNA was positive in 1.6% (75) individuals. Anti-HCV was positive in 17.39% (801) individuals, 18.83% were males and 12.73% were female, HCV RNA was positive in 7.94% (366) individuals. Dual infection was detected in 0.13% (6) individuals. HBsAg were detected in 11.86% (58) thalassemia patients, 11.54% (42) hemophilia patients, 2.75% (22) in patients undergoing hemodialysis and 3.47% (32) of patients with surgery. Anti-HCV were detected in 29.24% (143) thalassemia patients, 43.96% (160) hemophilia patients, 41.93% (335) of patients undergoing hemodialysis and 10.62% (98) of patients with surgery. Co-infection with HBV and HCV was encountered in 0.63% (5) of patients undergoing hemodialysis and 0.11% (1) of patients with surgery. Statistical significance was observed for TTVs between thalassemia patients and hemophilia patients (χ2=24.31, p<0.00001), thalassemia patients and xii surgical patients (χ2= 69.174, p<0.00001), surgical patients and HD, (χ2= 127.594, p<0.00001), surgical patients and hemophilia patients (χ2= 96.835, p<0.0001) and HD and hemophilia patients (χ2= 6.158, p=0.013082). However, the difference between thalassemia patients and HD (χ2= 2.173, p=0.14045) was not statistically significant. Conclusion The present study critically evaluated prevalence of three major transfusion-associated infections, namely infections by HIV, HCV, and HBV. The present investigation showed i. A substantial percentage of the individuals harbored TTV infections (21.21%). ii. The prevalence of TTV was high (34.8%) in high risk group in comparison to the control group (3.7%) and thus ranked at high risk for TTVs infection. TTV Infection prevalence was 9.41 folds higher in high risk group than in control group. It showed that TTVs continue to endanger safe blood supply in a country. iii. The frequency of HCV was high (17.39%) in both high risk group and control group in comparison to HBV positivity (3.6%), the situation is alarmingly and is a matter of concern and effort. iv. The prevalence of untypeable genotypes of HBV and HCV was alarming v. TTV positivity rate increase with increase in the age in high risk group as their transfusion requirements increased with age, thus they were more prone to these infections. vi. The prevalence of mixed genotypes of HCV was matter of concern. vii. This burden of TTV showed that prevention of spread of TTV should be the main goal at the current time. xiii viii. The over flaws in blood transfusion services can be overcome by development of a fair and organized system for safe blood screening, monitoring the implementation strategies for recruitment and retention of safe donors. Recommendation The occurrence of TTV infections should still be monitored carefully to reduce the rate of infections to ensure safer and more reliable blood for transfusion. Education regarding awareness about TTVs, screening strategies, sensitization and vaccination must be carried out to ensure that people are well enlightened and protected from viral diseases. All individuals particularly patients receiving blood transfusion should complete vaccination for Hepatitis B before starting transfusion. Strict and concrete efforts are required to cut down the infection rate through proper screening of blood and blood products, strict emphasis on receiving the vaccine, uniform strict criteria for donor selection.