Implementation of Gaussian Process Regression in Estimating Motor Vehicle Insurance Claims Reserves

This study aims to calculate the allowance for losses by applying Gaussian Process regression to estimate future claims. Modeling is done on motor vehicle insurance data. The data used in this study are historical data on PT XYZ's motor vehicle insurance business line during 2017 and 2019 (January 2017 to December 2019). Data analysis will be carried out on the 2017 - 2019 data to obtain an estimate of the claim reserves in the following year, namely 2018 - 2020. This study uses the Chain Ladder method which is the most popular loss reserving method in theory and practice. The estimation results show that the Gaussian Process Regression method is very flexible and can be applied without much adjustment. These results were also compared with the Chain Ladder method. Estimated claim reserves for PT XYZ's motor vehicle business line using the chain-ladder method, the company must provide funds for 2017 of 8,997,979,222 IDR in 2018 16,194,503,605 IDR in 2019 amounting to Rp. 1,719,764,520 for backup. Meanwhile, by using the Bayessian Gaussian Process method, the company must provide funds for 2017 of 9,060,965,077 IDR in 2018 amounting to 16,307,865,130 IDR, and in 2019 1,731,802,871 IDR for backup. The more conservative Bayessian Gaussian Process method. Motor vehicle insurance data has a short development time (claims occur) so that it is included in the short-tail type of business.

Effects of Academic Resilience on Institutional Stability and Self Efficacy of Students at University

This study intended to investigate the “Effects of Academic Resilience on Insti tutional Stability and Self Efficacy of students at University Level”. The objectives were to (1) discover the perceived level of academic resilience, perceived level of institutional stability and perceived level of self-efficacy of the students at Univer sity Level, (2) explore relationship between academic resilience and institutional stability, and (3) probe relationship between academic resilience and self-efficacy of the students. A mixed methods approach was used employing quantitative and qualitative method. The population was all BS students studying at public sector Universities in Punjab province and the sample comprised of 1678 (for quantita tive data) and 16 (for qualitative data). Researcher made two instruments was used after confirming the validity and reliability of the instruments. Quantitative data analysis was carried out through SPSS and statistical tests, such as mean SD, t-test and Person r. Qualitative data were analyzed through thematic analysis. The study discovered that majority of the students had high level perceptions towards academic resilience whereas minority of the students have moderate and low level perceptions towards some factors of academic resilience, the gender of students has not any significant relation with the academic resilience of students. The results revealed that majority of the students have high level perceptions towards institutional stability whereas minority of the students have moderate and low level perceptions towards some factors of institutional stability. The outcome of this study exposed that majority of the students have high level perceptions towards self-efficacy whereas minority of the students have moderate and low level perceptions towards some factors of self-efficacy. Results also discovered a positive correlation between academic resilience and institutional stability (r = 0.934), academic resilience and self-efficacy (r = 0.708) and self-efficacy and Institutional Stability (r = 0.682). It was also revealed that no difference was found between the academic resilience and gender of the students, significant difference existed between the gender and institutional stability, and male students have high level of self-efficacy as compared to the female students. The results of qualitative analysis too proved that majority of the university students stated that educational system and language remain a problem in the academic field. Most of the respondents ix were unhappy with the overall service that the institution provided. Majority of the students said that they were fully aware of their abilities or competencies to produce designated level of performance/ achievement that exercise influence over events which affect their lives. Majority of the students said that they could make better their emotional competencies and could make strategies or techniques for improving self-capabilities and most of the respondents described that the managers should be expert in problem solving.