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Stability Analysis of the Financial Systems of Pakistan and India

Thesis Info

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Author

Muhammad, Izhar

Program

PhD

Institute

Capital University of Science & Technology

City

Islamabad

Province

Islamabad.

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2018

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Backtesting

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/10520/1/Izhar%20Muhammad_Mngt%20Sci%20%28Fin%29_2018_CUST_PRR.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676727229551

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The objectives of this study are to assess the state of stability of the Banking systems of Pakistan and India and then to estimate how good, bad and worst economic conditions would in uence its state of stability. Our design of study is a mix of the techniques used by independent analysts andnancial system regulators. The model used in stress testing and scenario analysis are employed but in simpli ed form. Pakistan and India have not experiencednancial crisis due to some shock/contagion,therefore stress events and its impact on macroeconomic indicators are not included in the design. Determinants of asset quality of commercial banks are determined and its in uence on Nonperforming Loans (NPL) ratio explored empirically. A bank is termed unstable if its estimated Nonperforming Loans/advance ratio surpasses its equity/advance ratio during a year in a scenario. Scenarios of good, bad and worst economic conditions are developed for stress testing on the basis of extreme values of macroeconomic variables during sample period. Stability of whole banking system during a year in a scenario condition is evaluated on the basis of assets controlled by banks estimated unstable. First we take stock of banking system of Pakistan. During 1998-2001, in normal, bad and worst economic conditions, banks assessed signi cantly unstable are in control of maximum 35%, 50% and 62% assets respectively of the whole banking system. During 2002 and onward banks assessed signi cantly unstable are in control of maximum 6% assets of the whole banking system in normal, bad and even worst economic conditions. Thus it can be concluded that Pakistani banking system is stable since 2002 and can withstand bad and even worst economic conditions. As far as Indian banking system is concerned, Citibank (foreign bank) is the only bank appraised stable after 2006 and also adjudged able to withstand even the worst economic conditions. Almost all public sector banks reviewed are assessed unstable during 1999-2005. They exhibited signs of recovery during 2006- 2011 but adjudged markedly unstable during 2012-14. During 2014, twelve (out of total thirteen) public sector banks are evaluated signi cantly unstable in bad economic conditions. The three private sector banks i.e. Axis, HDFC and ICICI are evaluated to have performed satisfactorily specially during the last four yearsof the period under review. The instability of the Indian banking system in 2014 is more noteworthy when six banks possessing 30% assets of the banking system are appraised unstable by signi cant margin. The number of banks adjudged signi - cantly unstable is (maximum) two during 1999-2013 but abruptly increases to six in 2014. Results of the stress testing of the banking system of India under various scenarios denote that Indian banking system lacks the potential to withstand any macroeconomic shocks. In any signi cant adverse macroeconomic conditions, the system is expected to collapse.
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قدیم مصری عقاید اور جانور

قدیم مصری عقاید اور جانور

اس وقت مصریوں کا عقیدہ تھا کہ ابتدا سے آخر تک آسمان اور دریائے نیل ہی باقی بچ جانے والی سماوی مخلوق ہے ۔یہ تمام حیرت انگیز اجرام ِ فلکی محض اجرام نہیں بلکہ طاقتور روحوں اور ایسے دیوتائوں کی ظاہری صورتیں ہیں جن کے ارادے ہمیشہ یکساں نہیں ،یہ پیچیدہ اور مختلف تحریکوں کا حکم جاری کرتے رہتے ہیں ۔آسمان بذات خود ایک گنبد ہے جس کی وسعت کے پار عظیم گائے حت جور دیوی کھڑی ہے ۔زمین اس کے پیروں تلے تھی اور پیٹ پر دس ہزار ستاروں کا ملمع ،ایک مصری عقیدہ یہ بھی تھا کہ آسمان دیوتا سبو تھا ابیوت دیوی یعنی زمین کے اوپر دھیرے سے لیٹا ہے اور ان کی عظیم الجثہ مباشرت سے تمام چیزوں نے جنم لیا ۔

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عجائب گھر میں ملکی اوور غیر ملکی سیاحوں کے جتھوں کے جھتے داخل ہو رہے تھے...

Functional MRI Based Brain Mapping in Occipital Gyrus using Face Stimuli

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is one of the most powerful neuroimaging modalities due to its high spatio-temporal resolution characteristics. This known modality is applied on mapping the temporal, occipital, frontal cortices of the brain for localizing the neural activities generated due to any visual, physical or mental task or brain diseases or brain disorders. The occipital cortex is composed of middle, left, right, interior and exterior occipital gyrus and is responsible for visional function of human brain. The occipital gyrus reflects the neural image generated in the brain due to any visual activity. In this research paper, four different visual stimuli images of faces, scrambled, scenes and objects along with gap of blank space, forming a long sequence of stimuli observed by two female subjects, are experimented to examine and localize the most contrasting neural image generated in occipital gyrus of the brain. The visual fMRI brain data received from the two subjects is processed through fMRI-SPM12 toolbox based on Matlab software. In order to demonstrate the results statistically, two regressions such as T-contrast and F-contrast vectors are applied on fMRI images to highlight, and to localize the most active neural stimuli activities generated in the occipital gyrus of brain. In the results, it is demonstrated that maximum neural response can be mapped only for face stimulus in the bilateral occipital gyrus of the brain by applying T-contrast vectors regressions as when compared to other stimuli conditions and F-contrast vectors regressions. Further, it is also investigated that, the response of the face stimulus in F-contrast regressions achieved is somehow dispersed and unclear due to the large variances and interlinked communication of other stimuli or induced neural noises generated in entire volume of the brain.  Further from the given images, it is also investigated that the most reflecting and contrast area for any visual stimuli (such as face stimulus in this case) is either the middle or bilateral part of occipital gyrus of the human brain as identified through application of  T-contrast vectors regressions.

Idiosyncratic Risk and Expected Return of Portfolio Investment Evidence from Stock and Commodity Markets of Pakistan

The central theme of this research study is related with the role of idiosyncratic risk in commodity and stock returns of Pakistan being emerging markets of the world. In the framework of asset pricing, literature suggests that idiosyncratic risk is independent to the specific assets therefore it has no role in explaining the returns. However, modern portfolio theory suggests that in under diversified portfolio, idiosyncratic risk has the positive relationship with stock returns, while the negative association of idiosyncratic risk has also been reported by different scholars. To settle this conflict through Pakistani context, the current study investigates the role of idiosyncratic risk empirically in these two financial markets. Stock market is divided into two sectors i.e. financial sector including returns of financial companies and non-financial sector comprising data of non-financial companies. The daily and monthly data are taken from January 2005 to 2016 for analysis. For commodity market of Pakistan which is totally independent from stock market, separate daily data set is taken from 2011 to 2016. As the data is of quantitative in nature therefore various statistical tools are applied for this purpose. Cross sectional regression is used for testing the association between expected conditional idiosyncratic risk and returns. Conditional idiosyncratic risk is estimated through Egarch model for both markets. The empirical results showed that conditional idiosyncratic risk and return of non-financial, financial and commodity returns has significant positive relationship after controlling the different factors such as value, momentum and size etc. whereas the lag idiosyncratic risk has no relationship with returns of stocks and commodities. The empirical evidence confirms the findings of previous studies. In the end it is suggested that investors can develop profitable portfolio after considering the idiosyncratic risk.