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The Climate Change Impact on Water Resources of Upper Indus Basin-Pakistan

Thesis Info

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Author

Muhammad Akhtar

Program

PhD

Institute

University of the Punjab

City

Lahore

Province

Punjab

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2008

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Earth sciences

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/handle/123456789/281

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676727570041

Similar


PRECIS (Providing REgional Climate for Impact Studies) model developed by the Hadley Centre is applied to simulate high resolution climate change scenarios. For the present climate, PRECIS is driven by the outputs of reanalyses ERA-40 data and HadAM3P global climate model (GCM). For the simulation of future climate (SRES B2), the PRECIS is nested with HadAM3P-B2 global forcing. In the present day simulations, climatic means and interannual variability are examined and biases are identified focusing on the most important parameters (precipitation and temperature) for hydrological modelling. In this study, both the meteorological station observations and results of the PRECIS RCM are used as input in the HBV hydrological model in order to investigate the effect of PRECIS simulated precipitation and temperature on the HBV predicted discharge in three river basins of UIB region. For this, three HBV model experiments are designed: HBV-Met, HBV-ERA and HBV-PRECIS where HBV is driven by meteorological station data and by the outputs from PRECIS nested with ERA-40 and HadAM3P data respectively. The robustness and uncertainties ranges of these models are tested. The future water resources are quantified using the two approaches of transferring the climate change signals i.e. delta change approach and direct use of PRECIS data. The future discharge is simulated for three stages of glacier coverage: 100 % glaciers, 50 % glaciers and 0 % glaciers. The PRECIS is able to reproduce the spatial patterns of the observed CRU mean temperature and precipitation. However, there are notable quantitative biases over some regions especially over the Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalaya (HKH) region, mainly due to the similar biases in the driving forcing. PRECIS simulations under future SRES B2 scenario indicate an increase in precipitation and temperature towards the end of 21 st century. The calibration and validation results of the HBV model experiments show that the performance of HBV-Met is better than the HBV-ERA and HBV-PRECIS. However, using input data series from sources different from the data used in the model calibration shows that HBV-ERA and HBV-PRECIS are more robust compared to HBV-Met. The Gilgit and Astore river basins, for which discharges are depending on the preceding winter precipitation, have higher uncertainties compared to the Hunza river basin for which the discharge is driven by the energy inputs. The smaller uncertainties in the Hunza river ibasin as compared to Gilgit and Astore river basins may be because of the stable behavior of the input temperature series compared to the precipitation series. The robustness and uncertainty ranges of the HBV models suggest that regional climate models may be used as input in hydrological models for climate scenarios studies. In a changed climate, the discharge will generally increase in both HBV-PRECIS and HBV-Met in the 100 % glacier coverage stage up to 65% and 44%, respectively. At the 50 % glacier coverage stage, the discharge is expected to reduce up to 24% as predicted by HBV-PRECIS and up to 30% as predicted by HBV-Met model. For the 0 % glacier coverage under climate change, a drastic decrease in water resources is forecasted by HBV-Met is up to 96 % and by HBV-PRECIS is up to 93%. At 100 % glacier coverage, the magnitude of flood peaks is likely to increase in the future which is an indication of higher risk of flood problems under climate change. There are huge outliers in annual maximum discharge simulated with HBV-Met. This shows that the prediction of hydrological conditions through the delta change approach is not ideal in the UIB region. HBV-PRECIS provides results on hydrological changes that are more consistent with climate change. This shows that the climate change signals in HBV-PRECIS are transmitted more realistically than in HBV-Met. Therefore, the direct use of RCM outputs in a hydrological model may be an alternative in areas where the quality of observed data is poor. The modeled changes in future discharge and changes in peak flows under climate change are not conclusive because more research is needed to evaluate the uncertainties in this approach. Moreover, this technique needs to be tested with other RCMs and hydrological models preferably to river basins in other parts of the world as well.
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۔ مراتب اختر کی نظم گوئی

 مراتب اختر کی نظم گوئی

                جدیداُردو نظم کا وہ پودا جسے آزادؔ اور حالیؔ نے لگایا تھا اور اس کی آبیاری میں اکبرالٰہ آبادی، اسماعیل میرٹھی اور علامہ اقبال جیسے شعرا کا ہاتھ ہے تو اسے پروان چڑھانے میں میراجی اور ن۔م۔راشد نے بھی اپنا حصہ ڈالا اور اس کی تراش خراش کر کے اس کو ایک مضبوط تناوردرخت بنانے میں اہم کردار ادا کیا۔ ۱۹۶۰ء کی دہائی کے شعرا نے آزادنظم کو اپنے اظہار کا سب سے اہم اور مقبول ذریعہ تصوّرکیا اور جان بوجھ کر پابند نظمیں لکھنے سے گریز کیا۔ ان شعراکی کوشش سے پہلی بار اُردو شاعری میں وسیع پیمانے پر آزادنظم لکھی گئی۔ اس دور کے اکثر شعرا نے تو صرف نظم کے میدان میں طبع آزمائی کی مگر کچھ ایسے تھے جنھوں نے غزل اور نظم دونوں میدانوں میں اپنے فن کے جوہر دکھائے۔

                مراتب اختر کا شمار بھی ایسے شعرا میں ہوتا ہے جنھوں نے غزل گوئی کے ساتھ ساتھ نظم پر بھی طبع آزمائی کی اور اپنے اسلوب، فن اور فکر کی وجہ سے ہم عصر شعرا میں اہم مقام حاصل کرنے میں کامیاب ہوئے۔ مراتب اختر کی نظموں پر تبصرہ کرتے ہوئے معروف نقاد ڈاکٹرخواجہ محمدزکریا لکھتے ہیں:

یہ آزادنظمیں ہیں لیکن سطروں کی تقسیم پر مہارت ہر نظم میں موجود ہے۔ فنی عبور سے قطع نظر ان نظموں میں مراتب اختر کی شخصیت، ان کے خیالات اور محسوسات کی تصویریں ہر جگہ موجود ہیں۔ نظموں سے دوستوں کی محفلوں میں شاعر کی تنہائی، انسان کے مقابل کائنات کی وسعت، زماں کے بہتے ہوئے دھارے میں انسان کی بے بسی، دُنیا کے ریلے، ہجوم، ٹریفک، ہوٹلوں میں گفتگو کے سلسلے، روشنیاں اوران میں تنہا انسان جنھیں جلد ہی ماضی کا حصہ بن کر...

A Review of Opinions of Scholars on Contemporary Issues and Future Plans for Interfaith Harmony

Interfaith harmony refers to the peaceful coexistence and cooperation between people of different religious beliefs. This abstract focuses on the need for interfaith harmony, the challenges that hinder it, and the way forward towards achieving it. The need for interfaith harmony arises from the diversity of religious beliefs and practices around the world, which can lead to misunderstanding, conflict, and violence. Interfaith harmony promotes mutual respect, understanding, and cooperation among people of different faiths, which can lead to a more peaceful and just society. However, achieving interfaith harmony is not without challenges. These challenges include ignorance, prejudice, fear, and mistrust among people of different faiths. There are also social, economic, and political factors that can contribute to the breakdown of interfaith relations. To overcome these challenges, there are several ways forward towards achieving interfaith harmony. These include education and awareness-raising initiatives that promote interfaith understanding and dialogue. There are also interfaith organizations that bring people of different faiths together for mutual cooperation and support. Additionally, there are political and legal measures that can protect the rights of religious minorities and ensure their full participation in society. In conclusion, interfaith harmony is essential for building a peaceful and just society. While there are challenges to achieving it, there are also ways forward towards promoting interfaith understanding, cooperation, and respect.

Public Participation in Environmental Impact Assessment of Development Projects in Punjab, Pakistan

Evaluating the effectiveness of public participation in terms of its influence on EIA related decisions has been increasingly suggested in the literature. In Pakistan, public is involved during EIA of projects likely to cause adverse environmental and socio- economic impacts. Empirical evidence to establish the extent to which it is achieving its objectives of making widely acceptable decisions and promoting sustainable development in the country is scant. This thesis evaluates the effectiveness of public participation in EIA in the Punjab province by adopting a pragmatic combination of qualitative and quantitative research strategy. The methodology involved reviewing the literature, developing an evaluation framework incorporating the country context, investigating four EIA cases of transport infrastructure and industrial development projects through content analysis of related documents, and in-depth interviews of the stakeholders. Several inadequacies and prospects are discovered. EIA and Public participation are not integrated into project planning cycle due to a legal lacuna of requiring EIA before start of construction rather than before procurement of site and detailed design. The case studies demonstrated a weak influence of public concerns on decisions, since consultations were held after taking irreversible decisions. Lack of information about participation opportunities, poor accessibility and quality of EIA reports, lack of communication and transparency in the decision making process were some of the other barriers, which also exist elsewhere even in well established EIA regimes. Provision of an egalitarian environment during public hearings, sufficient time for submitting concerns, and a high degree of willingness and availability of public to participate were some of the attributes in contrast with what the literature generally suggests. Furthermore, this study revealed that involving technical experts and NGOs can influence more positively on the public hearing outcome than the directly affected public. Thus, the theoretical connotations of public participation in EIA may not be generalized and there is a need to revisit the theory, particularly in the context of developing countries. Overall, it is concluded that despite certain impediments public participation in EIA is gradually gaining ground in Pakistan. Useful recommendations have been made to enhance the effectiveness of EIA. In particular, a new model for proactive but represented public participation has been suggested to take place before EIA and selection of site for a development project.