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Customer Churn Prediction in Telecommunication Using Computational Intelligence

Thesis Info

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External Link

Author

Idris, Adnan

Program

PhD

Institute

Pakistan Institute of Engineering and Applied Sciences

City

Islamabad

Province

Islamabad.

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2016

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Computer Science

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/9773/1/Adnan_Idris_Computer_Sciences_2015_PIEAS.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676727723549

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Telecommunication industry has grown rapidly during the last decade. The number of cellular subscribers is approaching about 96% of total population of the world. In such a fierce competition, telecom service providers are facing saturated markets with little room for penetration. Therefore, telecom companies are focusing more on customer retention, which is considered cost effective as compared to adding new customers. Moreover, customer retention is more economical as it does not involve any additional marketing expense. Long term customers are also considered as easier to serve, contribute more toward stable profitability, and introduce new referrals as well. On the other hand, new customers are hard to be attracted in competitive markets and take little longer for establishing loyalties with the new service providers. Therefore, telecom industry requires a reliable churn prediction system, which accurately identifies the customers who are about to switch over to another service provider. The role of customer churn prediction system has become pivotal in retaining customers expected to churn by luring them with the improved service packages. This preceding knowledge of customers‟ churning would enable service providers to avoid sizeable revenue losses. Consequently for churn prediction, researchers have investigated many interesting data mining techniques that can meet the specific demands of telecom industry. However, the telecom churn prediction is still a challenging tak because of the the big size, imbalanced class distribution, and high dimensionality of telecom datasets. The main focus of this thesis is to identify discriminative feature extraction techniques and effective sampling methods to cater for the enormous nature of telecom datasets. Additionally, investigations are made to develop a churn prediction system with better classification and interpreting capabilities. This thesis makes the following contributions in the area of telecom churn prediction: 1) Analysis of minimum redundancy and maximum relevance (mRMR) method for extracting relevant and meaningful features, 2) Exploiting Genetic Algorithm based wrapper method to remove any redundant features from selected features, 3) Analysis of PSO xvi based intelligent sampling technique and its comparison to conventional undersampling techniques, 4) Constructing efficient churn prediction systems using computational intelligence based ensemble classification approaches (CP-MRF, Chr-mRF FEW-ChrP), 5) Employing novel GP-AdaBoost based ensemble classifier to develop an efficient churn prediction system with the additional capability of identifying factors responsible for churning, 6) Attaining highest churn prediction performance of 0.862 AUC and 0.910 AUC on Orange and Cell2Cell telecom datasets, respectively. 7) Extracting 47 useful features from 260 original features of Orange dataset and 35 features from 76 original features of Cell2Cell dataset. In short, under this research work extensive simulations are performed to examine the prediction performance of the proposed churn prediction systems distinguishing churners from non-churners.
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وزیر دی عقل مندی

وزیر دی عقل مندی

اک ملک دی گل اے جتھے اک نیک تے سمجھ دار بادشاہ دی حکومت سی۔ اوس دی رعایا اوہدے کولوں بہت خوش سی۔ بادشاہ حکومتی معاملیاں وچ اپنے وزیر نال مشاورت کردا سی۔ بادشاہ تے وزیر دا اک اک پتر سی۔ دونواں دا آپس وچ بہت پیار سی۔

بادشاہ نے اک دن سوچیا کہ وزیر دے مرن توں بعد اوہدا منڈا وزیر بنے گا۔ جو اپنے باپ توں زیادہ سمجھ دار اے۔ کتے ایہہ نہ ہووے کہ اوہ اوہدے کولوں حکومت ای کھو لوے۔ بادشاہ تے وزیر اکٹھے سن تے اوہناں دے پتر وی۔ بادشاہ نے اک چالاک عورت نوں دونواں منڈیاں وچکار پھٹ پاون دا آکھیا۔ جدوں عورت نے بادشاہ تے وزیر تے دونواں منڈیاں نوں اکٹھا ویکھیا تاں وزیر دے منڈے نوں آواز دتی۔ جدوں اوہ اوس چالاک عورت دے کول گیا تاں اوس اوہدے کن دے کول منہ کر کے منہ پھیر لیا۔

بادشاہ دے منڈے نے وزیر دے منڈے نوں پچھیا کہ اوس زنانی تینوں کیہ آکھیا اے؟ اوس آکھیا کہ کجھ نہیں۔ شہزادے نے آکھیا کہ اوس تیرے کن وچ کوئی گل کیتی اے؟ جو توں مینوں دسنا نہیں چاہندا۔ ایس گل توں اوہ اوہدے خلاف ہو جاندا اے تے اپنے باپ نوں آکھدا اے کہ مینوں وزیر دے پتر دا خون چاہی دا اے۔ بادشاہ وزیر دے پتر نوں قتل کرن دا حکم جاری کر دیندا اے۔

وزیر بڑا سیانا ہوندا اے۔ جدوں جلاد اوس نوں قتل کرن لئی لے جارہے ہوندے نیں تاں اوہ جلاد پیسے دے کے اپنے منڈے دے کپڑیاں اتے بکرے دا خون لوا کے کپڑے بادشاہ دے پتر کول گھل دیندا اے تے اپنے پتر نوں لکا لیندا اے۔ بادشاہ ایہہ ویکھ کے بہت خوش ہوندا اے۔

Agile Practices and Intention to Stay: Mediation Effects Through Job Characteristics

Agile methods of software development have been used widely over the last decade, and the majority of organizations have now embraced them in their projects. Thus, the current study explored the positive influence of agile practices on individuals' intentions to stay at their employment. In accordance with this objective, the study looked at the role of job characteristics in mediating the association between agile methods and intention to stay. A sample of 486 employees was contacted through online survey using the Google Forms platforms during the period of September 2021 who practice the agile methods while working at their organizations. They provided data on the questionnaires of agile practices, job characteristics, and intention to stay. Findings postulated that agile practices have significant impact on employees’ intention to stay. Results further reported the significant mediation through job characteristics between agile practices and intention to stay. Findings showed that the job when is designed on feedback, skill variety, job autonomy, task identity and task significance mediate an impact of practising agile methods on intention to stay.

Prevalence and Associated Risk Factors of Bluetongue Virus in Punjab and Balochistan

Bluetongue (BT) is a vector-borne disease of immense economic importance for small and large ruminants. Despite frequent disease reports from neighboring countries, a little is known about current disease status and prevalent serotypes in Pakistan. We screened a total of 1,312 healthy animals (sheep= 326, goat= 476, cattle= 234, buffalo= 276) from Punjab and 876 from clinically healthy sheep (475) and goats (401) from Balochistan for the detection of group-specific antibodies and serotype-specific genome for BT virus through competitive ELISA and real-time PCR, respectively. An overall prevalence of group-specific VP7 antibodies [28.81% (n= 378/1312, 95% CI=26.4 – 31.4)] was observed in Punjab. The prevalence was higher in goats [40.75% (n=194/476, 95% CI=36.4 – 45.3)] followed by buffalo [29.34% (n=81/276, 95% CI=24.3 – 34.9)], sheep [18.40% (n= 60/326, 95% CI=14.5 – 22.9)] and cattle [17.94% (n= 42/234, 95% CI= 13.56 – 23.4)]. The odds of seropositivity were more in buffalo of Nili breed (OR= 2.06, 95% CI= 1.19-3.58) as well as those found with a presence of vector (OR= 2.04, 95% CI= 1.16-3.59). Buffalo and cattle with history of abortion [(OR= 3.95, 95% CI= 1.33-11.69) and (OR= 5.89, 95% CI= 1.80-19.27) respectively] were much likely to be infected with the disease. Serotype 8 was detected in all animal species while, serotypes 4 and 6 were detected in sheep, 2, 6 and 11 in goat, and 2 and 16 in buffalo. The study concludes a much frequent exposure of different serotypes of Bluetongue virus (BTV) in small and large ruminants and indicates its expansion to enzootic range worldwide.In Balochistan, none of the study herds (n = 97) were seronegative for BTV, and at the individual level, the overall prevalence of BTV seroconversion was 47.26% (n = 414/876, 95% CI=43.92-50.63%). A higher percentage of goats (50.87%, 95% CI = 45.99-55.73%) were seropositive for anti-VP7 immunoglobulins (IgG) than sheep (44.21%, 95% CI= 39.81-48.70%). Odds of seroconversion for goats were associated with breed-type (χ2 = 16.84, p = 0.01), parity (χ2 = 23.66, p = 0.00) and presence of vector (χ2 = 2.63, p = 0.10), whereas for sheep, it was associated with breed-type (χ2 = 13.80, p = 0.01) and parity (χ2 = 53.40, p = 0.00). The presence of vector was also observed to be a risk factor in goat. Serotype 8 was the most prevalent (26.82%, 95% CI=14.75-43.21%) followed by an equal prevalence of serotypes 2 and 9 (7.31%, 95% CI= 1.91-21.01%). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study conducted in Balochistan province and the results indicate that there is a necessity to initiate intervention strategies to control BT disease burden not only in this region of Pakistan but also in adjacent areas of the neighboring countries, Iran and Afghanistan.