Home > Hydro-Glaciological Modelling of Contrasting Hydrological Regimes of Upper Indus Basin under Ipcc Climate Change Scenarios Using Fully Distributed Topkapi Model
Hydro-Glaciological Modelling of Contrasting Hydrological Regimes of Upper Indus Basin under Ipcc Climate Change Scenarios Using Fully Distributed Topkapi Model
The water resources of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) of Pakistan, are highly sensitive and vulnerable to climate change that can severely impact the food security and livelihood of millions living downstream. So it has become pertinent to understand the hydrometeorological behavior and assess future water resources and its variability under climate change scenarios. This study was designed to analyze the hydrometeorological trends and assess the changes in the contrasting hydrological regime of snow and glacier-fed river catchments of Hunza and Astore River basins of UIB under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios. In this study, fully distributed TOPKAPI model has been used that incorporates the glaciers component and generates all hydrological cycle parameters at very high spatial and temporal scale. MODIS snow cover product (years 2001 to 2015) and field-based hydrological (19662012) and meteorological data (1999-2012) was used to investigate the trend and magnitude of hydrometeorological variables using nonparametric Mann–Kendall and Sen’s Slope methods. The TOPKAPI model was successfully calibrated and validated over five years 1999-2003 with a Nash coefficient ranging from 0.93-0.94. The representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of the IPCC were used to project the future trend of hydro-meteorological variables. The Astore River discharge and precipitation trend were significantly (p ≤ 0.05) increased with a Sen’s slope value of 1.039 m3·s−1·yr−1 and 0.192 mm·yr−1, respectively, while the temperature was non-significantly (p ≥ 0.05) increased with the Sen’s slope value of 0.041 °C·yr−1. On the other hand, the Hunza River discharge and temperature significantly (p ≤ 0.05) decreased with a Sen’s slope value of −2.541 m3·s−1·yr−1 and −0.034 °C·yr−1, respectively, while precipitation showed a non-significant (p ≥ 0.05) increasing trend with a Sen’s slope value of 0.023 mm·yr−1. The snow cover in Western Himalayas (Astore River basin) and Central Karakoram region (Hunza River basin) of the UIB had a stable and slightly increasing trend with a Sen’s slope of 0.07%.yr−1 and 0.394%.yr−1, respectively. Under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, the increasing trend in mean temperature was observed in study area with a value of 0.03 °C.yr1 and 0.12 °C.yr-1, respectively. Overall the increasing trend in annual discharge of Astore River and decreasing trend of snow cover was observed under RCPs. Whereas the Hunza River basin followed the same snow cover and discharge trend under RCP 8.5 while under RCP 4.5 the snow cover is decreasing with an increasing trend of the Hunza River discharge till 2070, and then decline in discharge was observed during far future scenario. Based on the results of this study, it can be concluded that since both sub-basins are influenced by different climatological systems (monsoon and westerly), therefore results of those studies where UIB is treated as one unit in hydrometeorological modeling should be used with caution. Furthermore, this study can help to resolve the Karakoram anomaly and potentially be utilized to develop water policy and planning new water harvesting and storage structures, to reduce the risk of flooding.
ڈاکٹر محمد ضیاء الدین انصاری ڈاکٹر محمد ضیاء الدین انصاری میرے مخلص اور عزیز دوست تھے، مجھے ان کے انتقال کی خبر بہت دیر سے ملی، وہ علی گڑھ مولانا آزاد لائبریری میں ڈپٹی لائبریرین تھے، وہاں جاتا تو مطلوبہ کتابیں فوراً حاضر کرتے اور چائے سے خاطر تواضع کرتے، اصرار کرکے گھر بلاتے اور پرتکلف دعوت کرتے، خدابخش لائبریری کے ڈائریکٹر ہوکر وہ پٹنہ گئے تو اسے ترقی دینے کے لئے متعدد کام کئے اور کئی سمینار کرائے جن میں مجھے مدعو کرتے، وہاں سے ریٹائر ہوکر علی گڑھ آئے تو مولانا حسین احمد مدنیؒ پر ایک سمینار کا پروگرام بنایا مگر وہ نہ ہوسکا، ضیاء الدین صاحب کو علم و ادب سے بڑا شغف تھا اور وہ اچھے منتظم بھی تھے، کئی کتابیں لکھیں لیکن اشاریہ نگار کی حیثیت سے انہوں نے اپنا خاص سکہ جمایا، وہ بڑے شریف، نیک طینت، خوش خلق اور مرنجان مرنج شخص تھے، اﷲ تعالیٰ انہیں جنت نعیم عطا کرے اور پس ماندگان کو صبر جمیل عطا فرمائے، آمین۔ (ضیاء الدین اصلاحی، اپریل ۲۰۰۷ء)
IntroductionSensory integration therapy can improve language skills, attention, and social interactions in children with ASD. However, it is also important to note that research in this field is ongoing, and more studies are needed to confirm the effectiveness of these therapies. The present study is aimed to identify the effects of occupational therapy-based sensory processing skill therapies in improving the autism severity and QoL among ASD children. MethodologyThe intervention was performed for 12 weeks, six sessions per week, each based on 60 minutes of duration. The treatment protocol comprised four sensory processing skills in which Each child was trained on every skill for 15 minutes, making a total of 60 minutes of duration for a single session. ResultsSignificant improvements in CARS, CGAS and PedsQL (p<0.001) were observed after 12-weeks of intervention. ConclusionSensory processing skills therapies are a practical treatment approach in optimizing sensory load among ASD children. DOI: https: //doi. Org/10.59564/amrj/01.01/005
Modern businesses are expected to be socially responsible regardless of their industry of operation or country of abode. The age of economic globalization, efficiency in information transfer, and the desire to make our world a more sustainable place of abode for everyone have all combined together to make it even more so. Interestingly, it has now become apparent that corporate entities in both developed and developing economies of the world are conscious of their social responsibilities to all their stakeholders. This is certainly a step in the right direction; our world can only be a better place for this generation and future generations of all living objects to exist in, if we all as individuals and corporate entities were to take issues relating to social responsibility very seriously. The objective of the present study is to assess the corporate social responsibility (CSR) practices, relevant towards the domain of consumer marketing in relation to telecom (mobile phone operators) service sector of Pakistan. An attempt has been made to highlight the importance of CSR proposition towards organizations that is by adopting and incorporating the CSR inventiveness‘s will enhance the organizations profitability, growth and sustainability in a more competitive and constructive manner and which will earn them a stronger corporate identity with socially and business responsive organization stance and in return can attain customer retention on consistent basis at a marketplace. (v) This study contributes that corporate social responsibility has immense relationship in relation to consumer marketing. This study adds a fair understanding from theoretical perspectives that corporate social responsibility (Carroll‘s CSR strategies, economic, ethical, legal, and philanthropic) and contemporary stakeholder theory perspectives and stakeholder marketing perspectives are dependent on each other and directly proportional to consumer marketing. Any of the above perspectives cannot be implemented in isolation. A conceptual paradigm is being presented by incorporating the above perspectives and statistically tested. The results show positive outcomes that corporate companies (telecom mobile operators) by pursuing the given paradigm can enhance their profits, sustainability and growth. The present study registers that telecom mobile operator in Pakistan yet to comprehend the understanding of CSR phenomenon from business perspectives. The present study has proposed a CSR paradigm in relation to consumer marketing and further investigated that the existing Telecom mobile operators in Pakistan can create substantial opportunities through their consumer marketing strategies by incorporating the below propositions in relation to CSR (economic, legal, ethical and philanthropic) through direct and mediation constructs i.e., brand evaluations, word-of-mouth, customer satisfaction, customer loyalty and marketing communication and Individual Consumer Characteristics having three dimensions i.e., (emotional, social and functional values). The investigation outcomes reveal positive connectivity among these constructs.