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Time Series Models: Forecasting and Control for the Management of Computing Infrastructure and Resources

Thesis Info

Access Option

External Link

Author

Raza, Syed Akhter

Program

PhD

Institute

University of Karachi

City

Karachi

Province

Sindh

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2010

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Computer Science

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/handle/123456789/714

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676727849551

Similar


The existence of self-similar or fractal nature of network traffic has been proven by recent studies over a wide range of time scale. These properties are very different from the traditional Poisson processes/models. If one analyzes the network traffic by these traditional Poisson models then this leads toward wrong or incorrect decisions. The issues with Poisson models are overestimation of the performance of computer network and false allocation of data processing and network resources. Hence complete understanding of self-similar nature is required for fast and appropriate performance of the network. This thesis describes a number of problems arising from the experimental study of telecommunication networks. The work can be split into two main areas: full understanding of self-similarity within a network traffic and secondly focused over the comparison of two different networks i.e. searching similarity between two or more self- similar network traffic by using wavelet based time warping technique. Estimation techniques of self-similarity measure i.e. Hurst Index H is considered first the critical analysis of these methods is studied. There is a lack of GUI based tool for the estimation of Hurst Parameter we developed a new Statistical tool that can estimate the Hurst Parameter H by different methods along with their statistical analysis. Next we focused over the generation of self-similar traffic using simulation methods. A comparison of these methods was also studied. Main focus was on the Wavelet based estimation and generation methods for computer network traffic. Secondly concentration is made over filtering of temporal data to get the smooth form of the signal that may be used for further analysis. The main goal of second part is to explore new trends for filtering and smoothing of temporal data. A recently developed technique of wavelets for smoothing of temporal data is explored. New approach was developed using different features of wavelet transformation for dimensionality reduction and tested them for various decision making processes in business and computer science. The developed smoothing techniques are applied for forecasting, query processing of vsimilar sequences in huge databases and their clustering on the basis of membership value. The developed forecasting technique is based on Wavelet families and Seasonal Autoregressive integrated moving average model. In this thesis, two new approaches for smoothing of large temporal databases using the wavelet filtering theory for approximations of query procedures for decision support systems (DSS) are also proposed. For these smooth signals, a novel query processing algorithms was developed while selecting wavelet based features and time warping distance metric, called wavelet based features time warping. For first proposed algorithm we utilized the features extracted on the basis of minima, maxima and averages of wavelet based compressed signals and for second proposed algorithm local features of wavelet transformation using average of approximation coefficients at the coarsest scale and maxima of maxima and minima of minima of detail coefficients at all scales were used. Our both models support index based time warping distance. It is proved by carrying out extensive experiments with synthesized databases using different wavelet families that the proposed methods are very effective and ensure the nonoccurrence of false dismissals and minimal false alarms with least compromise over accuracy. The developed method gives extremely fast response times as our approximate query executes its maximum processing over synoptic set of wavelet features. A new measure of degree of similarity is introduced for clustering using time warping distance method which gives better control over the number of clusters.
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باتیں ’’خواب، خوشبو،آئینے‘‘ کی

باتیں ’’خواب، خوشبو،آئینے‘‘ کی

سماج میں خیالات و جذبات کے اظہار کیلئے بہت سے ذرائع موجود ہیں مگر کئی ذرائع ایسے ہیں جن میں ابلاغ زیادہ موثر نہیں ہے۔جیسا کہ سنگ تراشی اور تصویر کشی ہیں۔کیونکہ ان دونوں ذرائع میں فنکار اور دیکھنے والے کے نقطہ نظر میں بہت زیادہ اختلاف رائے کی گنجائش ہوتی ہے۔ہر کوئی فنکار کی سوچ تک رسائی نہیں رکھتااس لیے سماج میں ان ذرائع کو کم ہی استعمال میں لایا جاتا ہے۔البتہ شاعری ایسا موثر ذریعہ ہے جس میں شاعر اپنا نقطہ نظر بہت کم الفاظ اور وقت میں دوسروں تک پہنچا سکتا ہے اس لیے ہمیں سماج میں چہار سو شاعری کا راج نظر آتا ہے۔اسی ذریعہ سے محترمہ عظمت فردوس اسوہ نے اپنے خیالات کا اظہار کیا ہے اور اپنے خیالات کو ’’خواب خوشبو آئینے‘‘ کا نام دے کر ادب کو امیر بنانے کی کوشش کی ہے۔

اس مجموعہ کلام میں ایک نعت ،مدح مرشد،مدح غالب و جالب،ایک نظم ’’ماں‘‘ قطعات،فردیات اور غزلیات پڑھنے والے کی دلچسپی کا باعث ہیں۔محترمہ اسوہ نے اپنے کلام میں جن موضوعات پر قلم چلائی ہے۔اسکا مختصر جائزہ کچھ اس طرح سے ہے۔

شاعرہ نے شاعری کی روایت سے انحراف کرتے ہوئے اس مجموعہ کلام کو اپنے مرشد کی مدح بیان کرکے شروع کیا ہے۔مگر انہوں نیمدحیہ اشعار پر کوئی موضوع نہیں لکھا۔لکھتی ہیں کہ میرے مرشد نے مجھے سیدھے رستے سے روشناس کیا اور آج میں جو کچھ بھی ہوں اپنے مرشد کی نظر کرم کی بدولت ہوں۔

مجھ کو مرشد نے حق شناس کیا

سیدھے رستے سے روشناس کیا

ان کی نظر کرم ہے بس اسوہؔ

مجھ سی بندی کو اتنا خاص کیا(ص11)

حضور پاکﷺکی ذات اقدس سے آپ...

حیات امام مسلم بن حجاج القشیری

Prophet Muhammad (Peace be upon him) asked the Ummat to build a strong bond with Quran and Sunnah. However, it was not possible to hold these, till both were not maintained in their original form. The science of Hadith has a significant role in the preservation of this Islamic Intellectual Heritage. It became possible because of the tremendous efforts of the Muslim Scholars who spent their entire lives in learning and spreading the Islamic knowledge. Imam Muslim bin Hajjaj al Qushairi 578 AD is one of the most enthusiastic, popular, and authentic personalities in the field of science of Hadith and among the bibliography of the narrators of Hadiths. His compilation As-Sahih Al-Jamey has a major contribution in preservation of Hadith. It is considered as the second most authentic book after The Quran. The paper discusses in details about the life of this intellectual personal, his journeys, his teachers, his students, his status, and his other research works.

Exogenous Shocks and the Process of Organisational Sensemaking: the Case of Punjab Irrigation Department, Pakistan

Exogenous shocks have been studied in organization studies literature to investigate specific events that trigger sensemaking in organizations. The focus of majority of this research is how these triggers create discontinuity in the organizational routines and how actors make sense of these events to restore order. However, this narrow focus ignores the impact of multiple intensities of exogenous shocks that trigger sensemaking across different levels in an organization and the key role of enactment in organizational transformation and changes in internal organizational control. To address these theoretical gaps, this dissertation focuses on a large public-sector organization – Punjab Irrigation Department (PID), Pakistan – to empirically investigate the impact of multiple exogenous shocks of different magnitudes that triggered a process of sensemaking resulting in the organizational transformation with changes in internal organizational control. More specifically, this dissertation explores research questions related to distributed sensemaking across different hierarchical levels, enactment of sensemaking of various groups of actors, systematic differences in sensemaking across these groups of actors and the power asymmetries within these groups through an interpretive research methodology. The research design consisted of three cases of exogenous shocks that were witnessed by the PID in the last two decades. For the first case, i.e. the 2010 flood, I conducted a pilot study for six months of the flood affected districts in the province of Punjab. It was supplemented by in depth interviews with officials from PID during the main study. The second case consisted of institutional reforms in PID for which I conducted a longitudinal study to understand how reforms have evolved over a period of last twenty years. The last case consisted of inclusion of external stakeholders in the maintenance and repair works in iii PID. I conducted interviews with PID staff and the external stakeholders to understand their role in the organizational transformation. I coded all the data of interviews in MAXQDA to conduct qualitative thematic content analysis. I then analyzed the main themes from the data using multiple theoretical perspectives to develop my findings. My analysis shows the enactment of sensemaking of these exogenous shocks varied across different hierarchical levels in the PID. Actors at different hierarchical levels used the ambiguity and uncertainty of the situations to enhance their sphere of control in the organization. The role of identity and systemic powers by virtue of their designation played a key role in the strategic action they engaged in to enact changes in the organizational routines. In doing so, this dissertation contributes to the institutional change/transformation research in the field of organization studies by providing in-depth context-specific analysis of enacted sensemaking in a large public-sector organization. Moreover, this research also adds valuable insights about how power asymmetries in organizations impact the process of institutional maintenance and change.