محمد اقبال منہاس(۱۹۴۱ء۔۱۹۹۰ء) نام اور اقبالؔ تخلص کرتے تھے۔ آپ کے آباؤ اجداد کا تعلق پسرور سے تھا۔ آپ کے والد ملازمت کے سلسلے میں عراق میں مقیم تھے۔ جہاں اقبال منہاس پیدا ہوئے۔ آپ نے انٹر سے ایم ۔انگلش تک تعلیم گورنمنٹ مرے کالج سیالکوٹ سے حاصل کی۔ انھوں نے انگریزی ادب میں ڈاکٹریٹ کی ڈگری بھی حاصل کی ۔آپ دوران طالب علمی’’ مرے کالج میگزین ‘‘کے حصہ اردو کے مدیر بھی رہے۔ اور اسی کالج میں بحیثیت استاد بھی کام کیا۔ (۹۶۵) منہاس کے علمی و ادبی ،تحقیقی و تنقیدی مضامین اور غزلیں ’’شمع‘‘ ،دہلی ،’’سیپ‘‘، ’’فنون‘‘ ،’’اوراق‘‘،’’افکار‘‘ اور ’’رابطہ‘‘ میں شائع ہو چکی ہیں۔ آپ کا ایک شعری مجموعہ ’’آبِ گریزاں‘‘ شائع ہو چکا ہے جسے معروف شاعر طاہر نظامی نے مرتب کیا ہے۔ ’’آب گریزاں‘‘ میں نظمیں ،غزلیں ،قطعات اور رباعیات شامل ہیں۔
اقبال منہاس کی شاعری کے لہجے میں نیا پن پایا جاتا ہے۔ ان کے ہاں موضوعات کی جدت، جدید حسیات اور نئی لفظیات ملتی ہیں:
وہ لوگ پھول سے کومل وجود رکھتے ہیں
وہ جن کے دامن رنگین میں خار ہوتے ہیں
شمع جلے نہ کوئی پھول ہی کھلے جن پر
وہی تو اہلِ وفا کے مزار ہوتے ہیں
(۹۶۶)
áاقبالؔ ایک حساس شاعر اور حساس انسان ہیں ۔ وہ عام انسانوں کے مقابلے میں معاشرہ میں ہونیوالی نا انصافیوں اور استحصال کو جلد محسوس کرتے ہیں۔ اقبال منہاس اپنے ارد گرد ظلم ، معاشی و سماجی نا ہمواری اور انسانی بے بسی کو دیکھتے ہیں تو خاموش تماشائی نہیں بنتے۔ ان کی شخصیت اور شاعری میں ایک محتاط رویہ بھی ملتا ہے۔ اور...
This study aims to evaluate the links among gold price, oil price, exchange rate and interest rate in Pakistan. All these channels are interconnected and have impact on monetary policy of the country. Monthly data ranging from 1995-01 to 2016-12 is used for the analysis based on VAR Model. Exchange rate depreciations are responded by tight monetary policy actions, which seem to have a significant effect on exchange rate stabilization process and raise gold price. Changes in oil prices at global level strongly affect the nexus in Pakistan. Monetary policy managers are suggested to take changes in gold prices as indicators of short-run fluctuations in Pakistan economy. The study contributes in two ways. Firstly, as a case study of Pakistan, it analyzes the role of gold market in response to changes in exchange rate and world oil prices. Secondly, the study links up monetary policy decisions to the nexus of gold price-oil price-exchange rate. Findings of the study may be useful for monetary policy makers, academia, and gold industry alike.
The Purpose of this study is to explore the behavior of exchange rates in five Asian economies; namely Pakistan, India, Indonesia, Korea and Sri Lanka. The causality between capital and currency markets has been investigated in the first section of study. In second section, the link between exchange rate and economic variables has been scrutinized, while in the third section, forecasting performance of economic models has been compared with that of random walk and autoregressive integrated moving average model. Using Granger Causality test and Johansen Cointegration, the causality between stock and currency markets has been explored. Link between macro economic fundamentals and exchange rates has been investigated using ordinary least square method and Johansen’s cointegration, while forecasting performance of economic models has been compared with that of random walk and autoregressive integrated moving average model using one graphical and four statistical measures. These measures are Perfect Forecast Line (PFL), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Median of Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Success Ratio (SR). Nature of short run causality between stock and currency markets has been found different in different countries. In Pakistan and Sri Lanka, causality runs from stock market to currency market while feed back relationship has been found in case of Indonesia and Korea. In India, causality running from exchange rate to stock market has been found significant. However, no long run causality between stock and currency markets has been found in sample economies. Thus these two financial markets support asset market theory in the long run. However, regression analysis proves that economic variables are not senseless, whereas Johansen cointegration technique affirm the existence of long run relationship between exchange rate and macro economic variables. Johansen’s cointegration reports three cointegrating equations in Pakistan, India, Korea and Sri Lanka while two cointegration equations in case of Indonesia. Vector Error Correction Mechanism has been applied to gauge the speed of adjustment in relationship between exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals. Lastly predictive capacity of economic fundamentals based models namely Purchasing Power Parity, Interest Rate Parity and Adhoc model has been compared to that of Random Walk and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model. In the sample forecasting has been used for comparison. Predictive capacity has been investigated using one graphical method called Perfect Forecast Line and four statistical methods. Statistical xiimethods include Root Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error, Median of Absolute Deviation and Success Ratio. All the four measures support fundamentals based approaches in all the sample economies except Indonesia where Random Walk Model has the power to beat fundamentals’ based approaches on the basis of all the four measures of statistical evaluation.